The test of tests comes this week in knockout pools. Why? Because the Miami Dolphins are on a bye, of course, and that eliminates the free pass to next week. Week 5 presents many challenges and games to avoid, perhaps more than most.
Don’t think about it
Thursday’s game pits the Rams and Seahawks. Next! Winless Bengals play host to the winless Cardinals. Next! Chase Daniel and the Chicago Bears in London against the Oakland Raiders. Next! Dallas plays host to Green Bay with both teams coming off losses. Next! Will Kyle Allen or Gardner Minshew II win their third straight? You want to risk your entire season on either Carolina or Jacksonville? Didn’t think so. The Browns play at the undefeated 49ers. Think anyone would have believed SF would be the team without a loss coming into the game before the season started? Stay away from this Monday night matchup, too.
Let the bettor beware
Minnesota journeys to MetLife to play the 2-2 New York Giants. It seems hard to believe Big Blue could put a scare into the Purple People but the Vikings are inconsistent and not dependable. They should force Daniel Jones into rookie mistakes, but you can’t bank on it. Buffalo visits Tennessee. The Bills’ defense has been rock-solid and almost helped them pull one out against the Patriots. There’s a good chance it will be Matt Barkley rather than Josh Allen against Marcus Mariota. A backup QB on the road for a team coming off a huge game — albeit a loss — is too risky. Baltimore got off to a flying start before hitting two speed bumps. Pittsburgh beat up on awful Cincinnati. Not worth tempting fate about whether Lamar Jackson & Co. can outduel Mason Rudolph and the Steelers. And you certainly can’t tap Pittsburgh coming off a Monday night game.
Tempting fate
Denver is winless and heads to Los Angeles to face the Chargers in an AFC West game. The Broncos are 0-4 and could easily be 2-2. They have a similar feel to Tampa Bay, which was under .500 but only because of a collapse against the Giants, and went into LA and rocked the Rams. The Bolts do not look like the team they were in 2018, which won 12 games. This feels like a tighter contest than it seems. The Chiefs feel like they are in a good place at home against the Colts. However, the past two weeks have been wins by less than a TD each and Indy has been erratic enough to scare KC on its good days. The Texans have not shaky and play host to Atlanta in what feels like a must-win game already for Dan Quinn’s Falcons. There figures to be a lot of offense and points and that always creates the concern of a scenario where the team with the ball last gets the “W.” Not worth taking the Texans despite what seems like a superior matchup. The Saints have a big home-field advantage over Tampa Bay, which is coming off a huge win on the road. Consecutive road victories over the teams that played in the NFC Championship Game are asking a lot of the Bucs. Remember, however, New Orleans is still without Drew Brees and is coming off a monster, emotional effort against Dallas.
Go for it
Sometimes you have to take what the NFL is giving you. The New England Patriots journey to Washington. The Pats are undefeated and supreme. Washington is winless and woeful. Washington is more than a two-touchdown underdog on its home field. Washington is looking at being the largest underdog in its home history. The team in 1995 was a 13-point underdog against the rival Cowboys. That said, Washington won that game. If Jay Gruden’s team somehow does that Sunday, it could wipe out the majority of people left in these pools. An oddity about that 1995 season: Dallas went 12-4 and won the Super Bowl under Barry Switzer. Two of its regular-season losses were to Washington, which finished 6-10. In case you have used NE already, the Philadelphia Eagles at home versus the winless Jets are another strong option. By the way, there is the likelihood the last two Super Bowl champs could be facing what amounts to third-string QBs.
