In the modern NFL, if you don’t have an above-average quarterback, you don’t have much. Unless you’re the 2015 Broncos and you bring a historically great defense to the field to make up for the petrified version of Peyton Manning, you aren’t going to get very far without a signal-caller that can discern and demolish coverages.
Which leads us to the Pittsburgh Steelers and New Orleans Saints.
Pittsburgh will be without Ben Roethlisberger for the remainder of the 2019 season after the elbow injury he suffered against the Seahawks. And New Orleans will be without Drew Brees for six to eight weeks after Brees tore a ligament in his throwing thumb. The Steelers are probably out of the postseason run, no matter what backup Mason Rudolph does, because their defense isn’t up to snuff. But the Saints might just make it through a spell without Brees because their defense has the capacity to make up at least some of the difference.
The moral of the story for every team in the NFL? You’d better be ready for the loss of your most important player by making everyone around him as valuable as possible. It’s a lesson in team-building that drives our power rankings every week.
32. Miami Dolphins
Ryan Fitzpatrick has now thrown interceptions for eight different teams, which is both an NFL record and a sure indication that NFL teams will hold you in value no matter how often you barf the ball all over the field. Not that Fitzpatrick was going to succeed in a Dolphins offense in clear Tank Mode, but his two pick-sixes against the Patriots on Sunday begs the question: What on earth are the Dolphins waiting for when it comes to starting Josh Rosen?
31. New York Jets
At this point, the Jets may want to search for Richard Todd or Neil O’Donnell to see what they’re up to. After Trevor Siemian, Sam Darnold’s backup, left the Monday night contest against the Browns with an ankle injury, the Jets went to Washington State alum Luke Falk, who was last seen getting lit up by Washington in the 2017 Apple Cup. The NFL was no easier for Falk — nor should it have been based on his experience — and until Darnold returns to the fold, it doesn’t matter how effective Gregg Williams’ defense might be. The Jets have no chance to win.
30. New York Giants
It’s not surprising that Giants head coach Pat Shurmur has now made the change at the quarterback position away from Eli Manning, putting rookie Daniel Jones in Manning’s place. It’s the end of an era, but it’s also a move that should have been made a couple years ago based on Manning’s performance. Manning has been playing at a sub-Flacco level since 2016, but he’s not even the Giants’ biggest problem right now — right now, it’s a defense that has been so vulnerable, members of the secondary are throwing members of the defensive line under the bus. No amount of Daniel Jones, or any other quarterback, will fix that particular problem.
29. Denver Broncos
The Broncos fell to 0-2 after a weird late-game sequence against the Bears that included several penalties and a last-second field goal from Bears kicker Eddy Piniero. When you get beat by Chicago’s kicker after all the issues that franchise has endured at the position over the past year, it’s a hard pill to swallow. Head coach Vic Fangio must overcome losing to the team that employed him as its defensive coordinator the past five seasons and move on to the challenge of a road game against the Packers next Sunday. Joe Flacco against Green Bay’s ravenous defense? That’s a matchup that could lead to an 0-3 start pretty easily.
28. Washington Redskins
It’s not a good time to be Redskins head coach Jay Gruden. Not only was his defense exposed against the Cowboys in a 31-21 loss, but the offense struggled to stay on point against Dallas’ defense. With star running back Derrius Guice out indefinitely with yet another knee injury, veteran Adrian Peterson managed just 25 yards on 10 carries. Quarterback Case Keenum has performed better than expected, and rookie receiver Terry McLaurin has absolute breakout potential, but this is a team with a few fragments of greatness and a whole lot of mystery everywhere else. If that sounds like the Redskins throughout Gruden’s tenure, it’s because it has been.
27. Oakland Raiders
Dueling Grudens near the bottom of this week’s power rankings? Might want to get used to it. That said, you have to give Oakland’s secondary credit. Through the first quarter of their Sunday game against the Chiefs, they actually held Patrick Mahomes in check as the Raiders put up a 10-0 lead. And then … Mahomes became Mahomes, throwing for 278 yards and four touchdowns in the second quarter alone. That’s all Kansas City needed on its way to a 28-10 win, as Oakland’s offense was silenced by an average Kansas City defense through the game’s last 45 minutes. Now, Jon Gruden’s team has away games against the Vikings, Colts, Packers and Texans over their next five games, and their only “home” contest comes against the ravenous Bears defense … in London. There are reasons to be excited about this team’s development on both sides of the ball, but this schedule could have Gruden thinking about the 2020 draft by early October.
26. Arizona Cardinals
On Sunday, Kyler Murray became the second quarterback in NFL history (after Cam Newton) to throw for more than 300 yards in each of his first two NFL starts. And to his credit, Murray looked much more comfortable against the Ravens in Week 2 than he did against the Lions in Week 1. To throw the dimes he did against Baltimore’s aggressive and complex defense shows Murray’s potential; the extent to which the Cardinals failed in the red zone in their 23-17 loss indicates how far there is to go. Arizona had the ball inside the Ravens’ 5-yard line on three separate drives but eventually settled for field goals. The Cardinals have to work that out, but it’s pretty clear the franchise quarterback is in the fold.
25. Carolina Panthers
Through two games this season, per Pro Football Focus, Cam Newton has attempted 10 passes of 20 air yards or more. He has completed three of those passes for 109 yards, no touchdowns and no interceptions. That 30% completion rate on deep passes puts him in the bottom quarter of the NFL, down with the likes of Jacoby Brissett, Jared Goff and Marcus Mariota. If this were the only indication of Newton’s decline, it wouldn’t be a major problem, but the fact that, also per PFF, he’s throwing uncatchable balls at a league-leading 34.2% rate tells you that, whether it’s injury or simple physical attrition, the Panthers are going to have to win games around their quarterback at this point. Their 0-2 record tells you how that’s going so far.
24. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Jameis Winston put together a decent performance against the Panthers on Thursday night, especially considering the extent to which he was under pressure. Completing 16 of 25 passes for 208 yards and a touchdown won’t light up the stat sheet, but with a gradually improving run game and a pass defense trying to pull itself out of the dregs, it’s good enough to keep the Bucs competitive — and that’s the realistic hope for Bruce Arians’ team at this point.
23. Pittsburgh Steelers
While the Saints should be OK without Drew Brees due to their above-average run game and defense, the Steelers should harbor no illusions about their own situation now that Ben Roethlisberger is out for the rest of the season with an elbow injury. Backup quarterback Mason Rudolph showed potential against the Seahawks in the second half of a 28-26 loss, but that’s not likely to be enough given an uneven run game and a defense that still can’t get its safeties lined up straight. The post-Big Ben rebuild is inevitable; if the Steelers are smart, they’ll make it a sooner-than-later proposition. Trading their 2020 first-round pick to the Dolphins for defensive back Minkah Fitzpatrick will help from a personnel standpoint.
22. Detroit Lions
Through two games of the 2019 season, the story of the Lions is largely the same as it has been: Matthew Stafford equally tantalizes and frustrates with his arm talent, Stafford’s receivers are very gifted with inconsistent production as a result, and second-year running back Kerryon Johnson has the ability to be a feature back if he’s given the opportunity. What we’re waiting for in the second year of the Matt Patricia Experience is the lockdown defense New England’s former defensive coordinator promised when he took over and got “his guys.” If that doesn’t happen soon, Patricia will look more and more like another Bill Belichick acolyte who can’t take the altitude at the rank of head coach.
21. Jacksonville Jaguars
At a certain point, you’ve got to trust your quarterback. Jaguars head coach Doug Marrone forgot this football truism on Sunday, and it cost him dearly in a 13-12 loss to the Texans. Rookie Gardner Minshew did enough late in the game to set his team up for success with a fourth-quarter drive that ended with a touchdown pass to DJ Chark and included several clutch passes and a drive-saving 18-yard scramble on fourth-and-10. To reward his quarterback, Marrone told Minshew to hand the ball to running back and perennial disappointment Leonard Fournette for the two-point conversion that would have given Jacksonville a win. You can guess how that went. Minshew is a quarterback still under development, and nobody expected him to be the long-term starter, but as long as he is, Marrone needs to treat him accordingly in clutch situations.
20. Cleveland Browns
Aside from one acrobatic catch by Odell Beckham Jr. early in the game, Baker Mayfield seemed as confused by the Jets’ zone concepts and late-breaking coverages as he did by the Titans’ version of the same in Week 1. Hitting Beckham in the third quarter for an 89-yard touchdown on a simple slant in a void in the middle of coverage was a nice development, but Cleveland’s route concepts are not what they once were when Freddie Kitchens was the team’s offensive coordinator as opposed to their head coach. Todd Monken, Kitchens’ replacement in charge of the offense, should do what Kitchens did in 2018: Give Mayfield more stuff he’s comfortable with, and route concepts that give him quick first and second reads.
19. Cincinnati Bengals
The good news for the Bengals: After two underwhelming seasons, receiver John Ross leads the league with 270 receiving yards — and given that he’s caught just 11 passes on 20 targets, you know he’s been an impossible problem to solve for enemy defenses. The bad news? Against the 49ers in a 41-17 loss, Cincinnati’s defense made pretty much everybody on San Francisco’s side look like John Ross. The Bengals have allowed an opponent passer rating of 133.2 through losses to the Seahawks and 49ers, and if that doesn’t improve soon, it won’t matter how much of a difference Zac Taylor’s offensive designs can make.
18. Houston Texans
After a heartbreaking opening loss to the Saints and a close win over the Jaguars, we don’t yet know what the Texans are. What we do know is that until Bill O’Brien and his staff commit to a fixed offensive line, Deshaun Watson will continue to take hits at an alarming rate, and his productivity will suffer as a result. Watson has been pressured on more than half of his dropbacks in 2019, per Pro Football Focus, and if that continues, it won’t just be his productivity that is affected — his availability will come into question as well.
17. Atlanta Falcons
It’s a good day when you can pull out a win despite three interceptions from your quarterback — which is exactly what happened to the Falcons on Sunday night with their 24-20 win over the Eagles, even with Matt Ryan’s uneven performance. Atlanta’s defense, a liability without linebacker Deion Jones and safety Keanu Neal for various stretches of time in 2018, is looking more like what head coach Dan Quinn wants it to be.
16. San Francisco 49ers
Jimmy Garoppolo has had an up-and-down career to this point, but we’ll give him this much — when head coach and offensive mastermind Kyle Shanahan creates openings through scheme against a bad defense, Jimmy G generally knows how to take advantage. He did so about as well as ever in San Francisco’s 41-17 win over the Bengals, completing 17 of 25 passes for 297 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. But the real stories for the 49ers this season — the ones that could make them competitive in the NFC West and beyond — are a running game that put up 259 yards and scored two touchdowns on 42 carries, and a secondary that has learned to be more opportunistic after picking off just two passes in the entire 2018 season. The 49ers already have four picks in just two games in 2019. The loss of left tackle Joe Staley for six to eight weeks to a broken fibula will not help on the offensive side of the ball.
15. Indianapolis Colts
Those of you who thought the Colts would remain competitive despite Andrew Luck’s surprise retirement, stand proud. You probably recognized quarterback Jacoby Brissett’s improvement over the past two seasons, and the depth assembled at nearly every position by general manager Chris Ballard. The only real issue with this team right now is at the kicker position, where the coaching staff and front office has maintained support for 46-year-old Adam Vinatieri despite several misses that helped cost the Colts a potential win against the Chargers in Week 1 and could have put the team on the wrong side of the scoreboard against the Titans on Sunday. Vinatieri is the most prolific kicker in NFL history and a certain Hall of Famer, but one wonders how much more of this Vinatieri will want to go through.
14. Buffalo Bills
All hail the Buffalo Bills, the current kings of New York state after their wins over the Jets and Giants in the first two weeks of the season. The current deed holders to MetLife Stadium are off to a surprising 2-0 start due to an impressive defense, the rushing efforts of rookie Devin Singletary and the ageless Frank Gore, and quarterback Josh Allen’s improved efficiency as a passer. When you add in Allen’s ability as a runner, which is considerable and underrated, this begins to look like a team that could smash its way to a wild-card berth.
13. Tennessee Titans
The jury is out on Tennessee’s pass defense — through two games, only the Patriots have more interceptions than the Titans’ four, and only the Patriots have allowed a lower Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt (Pro Football Reference’s most advanced efficiency metric for quarterbacks) than the Titans’ 3.6. However, and it’s been said over and over, the jury is still out on the future of Marcus Mariota, who was under consistent pressure against the Colts on Sunday and was unable to rally his team in a frustrating 19-17 loss. More and more, Mariota looks like a system quarterback who can’t transcend his surroundings, and it’s one reason Tennessee’s offense is inconsistent in deploying Derrick Henry, the NFL’s most underrated running back.
12. Minnesota Vikings
On March 15, 2018, the Vikings gave Kirk Cousins a three-year, $84 million contract that was fully guaranteed. Cousins has a $29 million cap hit in 2019, and a $31 million cap hit in 2020. In their 2019 season opener, the Vikings beat the Falcons as Cousins threw the ball just 10 times. In Week 2, Cousins threw the ball 32 times. He completed 14 of those passes for 230 yards, one touchdown and two backbreaking interceptions in a 21-16 loss to the Packers. In that game, Minnesota averaged 7.2 yards per passing attempt and 7.3 yards per rushing attempt. Mike Zimmer’s team is loaded on defense and has a dominant run game with Dalvin Cook, but the Cousins albatross is the kind of decision that can cost teams Super Bowls. I mean, Case Keenum could do this for $10 million a year.
11. Chicago Bears
It is said that coaches will tell you what they think of a player by how he is used. In Chicago’s dramatic 16-14 win over the Broncos, Mitchell Trubisky became the first starting quarterback to “win” a game despite averaging 4.4 yards per attempt and throwing for 120 yards or fewer since … Trubisky did the same thing last season. Head coach Matt Nagy seems to understand that the only way to keep his quarterback out of the way at this point is to throw a simple and risk-averse game plan at him and hope for the best. Eventually, the dogs come calling, and Trubisky will have to transcend his obvious limitations. That his coaches don’t seem to believe there’s a cost benefit in advancing the playbook tells you all you need to know.
10. Los Angeles Chargers
Before Philip Rivers threw the game-clinching interception in the Lions’ favor in a 13-10 loss, receiver Keenan Allen was abusing Detroit cornerback Darius Slay, and Mike Williams came up with some highlight-level catches. But Rivers couldn’t put the ball in the end zone on 36 attempts and 21 completions, and this offense is going to have to be more dynamic as the season goes along, because the secondary is taking some serious hits. Adrian Phillips, who was replacing the injured Derwin James, suffered a broken forearm in the loss.
9. New Orleans Saints
It’s not fair to drop the Saints too far in our rankings despite the loss of Drew Brees for at least six weeks due to a torn thumb ligament. It would have been so a few years back when New Orleans had a string of historically bad defenses and kept going 7-9 despite Brees throwing the ball 600 times for 5,000 yards and 40 touchdowns as a default mechanism. Now, the onus is on backup quarterback Teddy Bridgewater to a point, but it’s really on a young defense that has shown up in fits and starts, and will take this franchise about as far as it will now go in the first half of the 2019 season. It’s also true that Sean Payton will scheme Bridgewater up to his highest potential.
8. Philadelphia Eagles
Last season, per Football Outsiders, the Eagles had rotten injury luck, as tabulated by games lost to injury by their starters and other key players. This kind of bad luck doesn’t usually hit a team two years in a row, but don’t tell Philly head coach Doug Pederson, who is currently monitoring the injury status of (deep breath) running back Corey Clement; wide receivers Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson; tight end Dallas Goedert; and defensive tackle Timmy Jernigan. Add the fact that injury-prone quarterback Carson Wentz was beaten to a pulp by the Falcons defense on Sunday in a 24-20 loss, and it starts to become clear that after beating the Patriots in Super Bowl LII and missing the playoffs in 2018, Pederson’s team might be on the wrong end of the curve once again.
7. Green Bay Packers
There’s a king of the Packers’ offense after Green Bay’s 21-16 win over the Vikings. His first name is Aaron, but his last name isn’t Rodgers. Third-year running back Aaron Jones, who was criminally underutilized by former head coach Mike McCarthy (one of many reasons he’s “former head coach Mike McCarthy”) has been set free by Matt LaFleur and his run-heavy attack. LaFleur must have looked at Jones’ 2018 game tape, when he scored eight rushing touchdowns on just 133 attempts and averaged 5.5 yards per carry, and wondered what he’d done to receive this particular karmic gift. Jones molly-whopped Minnesota’s stout front seven for 116 yards and a touchdown on 23 carries, and even as the passing game starts to open up when Aaron Rodgers becomes fully comfortable with the new system, don’t sleep on Jones’ potential. He’s going to be a force all season long.
6. Seattle Seahawks
Against the Giants in Week 1, Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott used his ability and his place in Kellen Moore’s dynamic offense to complete 26 of 30 passes for 269 yards, four touchdowns and a perfect passer rating of 158.3. Against the Steelers in Week 2, Russell Wilson used his ability and his place in a Brian Schottenheimer offense that wants to party like it’s 1973 to complete 29 of 35 passes for 300 yards, three touchdowns and a passer rating of 131.0. If Wilson had Lamar Jackson’s run game, or Jared Goff’s offensive line, or Patrick Mahomes’ play-callers, or Matt Ryan’s targets, he’d torch the league like there was no tomorrow. As it is, Wilson has none of those things, and he’s still one of the four or five most dangerous quarterbacks in football despite the deficiencies around him. It may not always show up on the stat line or in the win column, but when the Seahawks do win at this point, Wilson is most likely the primary reason as much as any NFL quarterback can be.
5. Los Angeles Rams
The concept of player value is a nebulous one, but this is what we know. When he had Cooper Kupp as his primary receiver last season, Jared Goff had a DVOA (Football Outsiders’ opponent-adjusted efficiency metric) of 37.3%, one of the highest marks in the league. Without Kupp, who suffered a torn ACL in Week 10, Goff’s DVOA plummeted to minus-2.2%. It’s therefore reasonable to assume that, outside of Aaron Donald, Kupp may be the Rams’ most valuable player. He certainly pushed the argument forward with a five-catch, 120-yard game against the Saints, during which he motored around and through New Orleans’ secondary. Goff is a quarterback who needs everything to work around him, and with Kupp back at an optimal performance level, that’s the standard once again.
4. Dallas Cowboys
Dak Prescott’s renewed relevance in Kellen Moore’s offensive play designs is among the NFL’s hottest subjects right now, and deservedly so. Moore has put together a playbook that exploits defenses with everything from advanced vertical concepts to backfield motion to blocking schemes that give Ezekiel Elliott the best chance for success. But Dallas’ defense hasn’t been the clampdown unit it could be, allowing 527 passing yards and three touchdown passes against Case Keenum and Eli Manning, with no interceptions to show for it. Sunday’s game against the Dolphins provides a breather, but if this team is to take advantage of its offensive firepower, it needs to be more opportunistic when the Packers and Patriots come around later in the season.
3. Baltimore Ravens
If Lamar Jackson was inclined to spend the rest of the 2019 season dunking on everyone who doubted him coming out of college, he’d be too busy to do what he’s doing to opposing defenses. So, we’ll just say that a guy who apparently should have switched to receiver or running back is tied with Patrick Mahomes and Dak Prescott for the NFL lead in passing touchdowns with seven, leads the NFL with a 145.2 passer rating, hasn’t thrown an interception, and confused the Cardinals on Sunday with 120 rushing yards on 16 attempts. Whether inside or outside the pocket, Jackson has proven the ability to beat opponents with his arms, legs and brain, and we’re on point with the idea that he’ll do it again when facing the Chiefs next Sunday. It’s the rare game where Patrick Mahomes could be playing catch-up.
2. Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes has already beaten the daylights out of regression — after throwing 53 touchdown passes in the 2018 season (including playoffs), he’s on pace for 56 in the 2019 regular season alone after his second-quarter masterpiece against the Raiders on Sunday. The only thing that might be able to slow him down in the near term is the Ravens defense he has to deal with Sunday. When the Chiefs and Ravens matched up in Week 13 of the 2018 season, Kansas City won, 27-24, but Mahomes had just two touchdown passes and threw a pick against Don Martindale’s masterful coverages. Remember also that in that game, Lamar Jackson threw two of his own touchdown passes — and keep in mind that Jackson is a far better quarterback this season. Mahomes faces few true challenges at this point, but this is going to be a game to watch.
1. New England Patriots
Yes, Antonio Brown made an impact against a Dolphins defense that was playing passive bail coverage against him and mysteriously refusing to give safety help over the top. More tanking evidence there, but when it comes to what makes the Patriots truly dangerous these days, it isn’t the offense at all — it’s a defense that scored two touchdowns in New England’s 43-0 thrashing of Miami and has allowed just six points in its past three games, including Super Bowl LIII. Whether Brown is able to stick and stay despite his many dramas, Bill Belichick’s defense is the team’s force multiplier at this point.
Touchdown Wire editor Doug Farrar has also covered football for Yahoo! Sports, Sports Illustrated, Bleacher Report, the Washington Post, and Football Outsiders. His first book, “The Genius of Desperation,” a schematic history of professional football, was published by Triumph Books in 2018.
