Merry Christmas everybody! The NFL’s Christmas calendar is looking very jolly indeed, but if you’re taking part in our Pick Six contest then please do remember to get all your picks in early - since the majority of games take place on Saturday this week.
Before that, though, do join me in congratulating cpg1978, Fatsamurai, Kperson and Lekeg, each of whom called all six games correctly in week 15. I’ll post the full standings in the comments section below as soon as I can - although please be advised that they might be a little later this week than usual.
Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills (Saturday 1pm ET/6pm GMT)
The Dolphins have not won in Buffalo since 2011, but if you believe in fate then you might be tempted to think that this is the right moment to end such a hoodoo. Matt Moore was at quarterback when they last prevailed in this match-up – having stepped into the starting line-up that year after Chad Henne was injured. He will be behind center again on Sunday, filling in for Ryan Tannehill. Miami’s 8-1 record since the middle of October offers further encouragement, but this will not be a straightforward game. Freezing rain and fog are forecast in Orchard Park, neither of which bode well for these teams’ passing games. The Dolphins did not need to throw the ball often in their home victory over the Bills, when Jay Ajayi rushed for 214 yards, but he has not equaled that figure in his last four games combined. Mike Pouncey’s absence at center is very obviously being felt. By contrast, LeSean McCoy has gone over 100 yards in three of his past four games, and has Mike Gillislee doing an increasingly effective job of spelling him as well. Bills to win
Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers (Saturday 1pm ET/6pm GMT)
The Panthers’ season is effectively over (although they do still have a path to the playoffs, it is too convoluted to take seriously) but you would not know it from the way they played during a win over Washington on Monday night – with Jonathan Stewart running so hard that he smashed his facemask off. Carolina’s players might also be eager for revenge against opponents who denied them a perfect regular season record with a victory on the corresponding weekend in 2015. As for the Falcons, they are coming off consecutive 28-point wins, but the Rams and Niners hardly put up much resistance. I’ll back them here, because I like Matt Ryan’s chances against the league’s lowest-ranked pass defense. But I did also expect a big day for Kirk Cousins against this group in week 15, and he finished up without a score. Falcons to win
Indianapolis Colts @ Oakland Raiders (Saturday 4.05pm ET/9.05pm GMT)
What a frustrating team the Colts are. Just when you think they are maturing into a contender, they lose at home to a Houston team that couldn’t even muster 150 yards passing. Then, when you finally feel ready to write them off completely, they roll into Minnesota and put 34 points on one of the league’s stingiest defenses. They have done their best work on the road over the past two months – previously winning in Green Bay and Tennessee, as well as against the Jets in New Jersey – but I don’t think I can back them to pull off another upset here. Although Oakland’s insistence on making Derek Carr take every snap out of a shotgun since he injured his pinkie has hindered them in certain situations, the fact remains that they have suffered only one defeat in four games since he sustained the injury - and that was on the road in Kansas City. Raiders to win
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints (Saturday 4.25pm ET/9.25pm GMT)
Not two weeks have passed since the Buccaneers beat these opponents 16-11 in Tampa Bay. It was their pass rush that carried the day, overwhelming the Saints’ offensive line and bullying Drew Brees into three interceptions. But is that formula repeatable? There was positive news for the Bucs on Thursday, when Robert Ayers – who generated a team-leading eight quarterback pressures in that game – returned to practice following an illness, but his fellow starter at defensive end, Will Gholston, is set to miss out. Meanwhile, the Saints’ offense has been strengthened by the returns of Max Unger at center and No2 wide receiver Michael Thomas – both of whom missed the loss in Tampa Bay. Throw in homefield advantage, and I think this match-up starts to look very different to the first. Saints to win
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (Sunday 4.30pm ET/9.30pm GMT)
What could be jollier on Christmas Day than a fresh instalment of one of the NFL’s most bitter rivalries? The Ravens have won four straight against Pittsburgh, and have a rare knack for slowing down Le’Veon Bell. He had his worst game of the season against them back in week nine, rushing for a meagre 32 yards on 14 carries, and has averaged only 67.7 yards per game against Baltimore over the course of his career. And yet, much else has changed since the last meeting. Ben Roethlisberger is in a much better state of health, whereas the Ravens look likely to be without cornerback Jimmy Smith – the man most capable of covering Antonio Brown. Steelers to win
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs (Sunday 8.30pm ET/Monday 1.30am GMT)
The Broncos ought to be a better team than Kansas City. They post comparable numbers on offense, and give up far fewer yards on defense – especially through the air. The only major statistical category in which they have fared significantly worse this season is turnover differential. But reporters in Denver are starting to ask whether there is something more fundamental amiss with this team amidst reports of a locker room pow-wow between Aqib Talib and Russell Okung following the defeat to New England. Is it a lack of leadership that is killing this team at key moments? Perhaps, or maybe it’s just the recent lack of a running game that is heaping too much responsibility on Trevor Siemian’s shoulders. Either way, and notwithstanding last week’s collapse against Tennessee, I would sooner put my trust in Kansas City. Chiefs to win
