Before Sunday, there were two one-loss teams in the NFL, and all seemed pretty safe with the order of power. Then, the Ravens beat the formerly 10-1 49ers in a nail-biter in Baltimore, and the Texans slammed the Patriots on Sunday night, and everything changed.
With their win, the Ravens, who haven’t lost a game since Week 4, became the AFC’s top seed. And with their loss, the Patriots moved to second, with the Texans right behind them. The Chiefs, Bills, and Steelers now round out the AFC playoff picture, with the red-hot Titans on the outside looking in.
The NFC playoff picture wasn’t going to make since until Monday Night Football was decided. When the Seahawks came away with a narrow escape at CenturyLink Field, they moved to the second seed, just behind the Saints. And the 49ers plummeted like Monty Python’s proverbial dead parrot, all the way to the wild-card round. A harsh reality for a 10-2 team while the Cowboys get a higher seed based on their “lead” in the NFC West with a 6-6 record, but the ways in which teams are seeded? That’s an entirely different discussion.
The point is, the 49ers and Patriots losing on the same day brings a wide-open feel to both conference races we really haven’t seen all season. Here’s how all 32 teams line up in our Week 14 Power Rankings.
32. New York Giants
(2-10. Last week: 31)
Giants head coach Pat Shurmur has now presided over exactly as many games as his predecessor, Ben McAdoo. McAdoo coached 28 games before he was dismissed three quarters through the 2017 season, and put together a 14-18 record in that time. Shurmur has a 7-21 mark. Shurmur’s Giants haven’t won since Week 4 against the Redskins, and there isn’t one positive aspect of this team that stands out. After Big Blue’s 31-13 loss to the Packers on Sunday, cornerback Janoris Jenkins criticized his own coaching staff, saying that he should be shadowing opponents’ top receivers. Jenkins didn’t do so against Davante Adams, who ripped New York’s secondary for two touchdowns on six receptions. He didn’t do so against Allen Lazard, who gained 103 yards and scored a touchdown on three catches, showing serious issues in defensive coordinator James Bettcher’s ideas about quarters coverage. Jenkins has a point, in that he is by far his team’s most effective cornerback, but he’s also hamstrung by a lack of talent around him — which seems to be the story regarding any Giants player who’s shown anything this season.
31. Cincinnati Bengals
(1-11. Last week: 32)
The Bengals were finally able to break a winless streak that went back to Week 16 of the 2018 season with a 22-6 victory over an inconsistent Jets team. Cincinnati was buttressed by the return of quarterback Andy Dalton, who had been benched in favor of Ryan Finley earlier in the season. Dalton completed 22 of 37 passes for 243 yards and his 198th career touchdown pass, which broke Ken Anderson’s franchise record. He also broke Anderson’s franchise record for completions at 2,669.
So, it was a big day in several respects. Dalton, Cincinnati’s second-round pick in 2011, has started 129 games for the Bengals, but probably doesn’t have much of a future with the team. He would represent a $17.7 million cap hit in 2020 in the final year of the six-year, $96 million contract extension he signed in 2014, and there’s no dead money if he’s cut. Finley may not be the future either — the Bengals are positioned for the first overall pick, and there are several interesting quarterbacks from the college ranks ready to avail themselves to the 2020 draft.
30. Denver Broncos
(4-8. Last week: 28)
Last week in a 20-3 beatdown at the hands of the Bills, quarterback Brandon Allen completed just 10 of 25 passes for 82 yards and an interception, receiver Courtland Sutton caught just one pass on eight targets, and the Broncos finished the game with five straight three-and-out drives totaling 7, minus-3, minus-9, 7 and zero yards. With nothing left to lose, Denver turned to rookie quarterback Drew Lock, whom head coach Vic Fangio has been saying through most of the season simply wasn’t ready. Perhaps the specter of another offensive embarrassment against the Chargers forced Fangio’s hand, but it worked out pretty well. In Denver’s 23-20 win, Lock appeared to be the big guy with the big arm John Elway wants above all else, completing 18 of 28 passes for 134 yards, two touchdowns, one interception, and two completions of 20 or more air yards. Not amazing numbers, but Lock’s mobility and velocity did bring a spark to Denver’s passing game we haven’t seen in a very long time. Fangio and his staff should accept that there will be lumps with a talented but underdeveloped quarterback, and take those lumps in an otherwise lost season.
29. Washington Redskins
(3-9. Last week: 29)
Washington’s 29-21 win over the Panthers on Sunday was a validation of interim coach Bill Callahan’s rushing fundamentalism, as Adrian Peterson and Derrius Guice combined for 228 yards and three touchdowns on just 23 carries. Meanwhile, a Redskins defense that has been under the weather for most of the season held Christian McCaffrey to just 44 rushing yards, put up enough decent coverage to limit Carolina quarterback Kyle Allen to 27 completions on 46 attempts for 278 yards, and sacked Allen for a 23-yard loss on the Panthers’ final play of the game. Add a decent performance by quarterback Dwayne Haskins, and this game went about as well as any has for this franchise all season. Callahan’s team travels to Green Bay for an entirely different challenge next Sunday.
28. Atlanta Falcons
(3-9. Last week: 26)
Forget about Atlanta’s defensive regression after two surprisingly strong games against the Saints and Panthers earlier this month — at this point, the primary concern for the Falcons has to be the ability of quarterback Matt Ryan to survive the rest of the season. Against the Saints in a 26-18 loss on Thanksgiving, Ryan was pressured on 29 of his 62 dropbacks. He was sacked nine times and suffered 13 quarterback hits. He’s been sacked 15 times over his past two games, leads the league with 38 sacks on the season, and is on pace to eclipse his career-high of 44 in 2013. Most of the problem is a questionable offensive line to be sure, and it didn’t help that he was without Julio Jones and Austin Hooper, but it also can be said that Ryan doesn’t currently possess the athleticism he’s shown in the past — more often than not last Thursday, he was a sitting duck for Cameron Jordan and the rest of New Orleans’ pass-rushers. Head coach Dan Quinn has said that his team will compete through the end of what has become a lost season, but one wonders how wise it is for Quinn to allow his quarterback to keep getting decked this frequently.
27. Miami Dolphins
(3-9. Last week: 30)
The play was called “Mountaineer Shot,” and it led to the season’s most amazing touchdown. Named that because center Daniel Kilgore went to Appalachian State, it was a weird fake field goal that resulted in a touchdown pass from punter/holder Matt Haack to kicker Jason Sanders.
It was also one of several embarrassments suffered by the Eagles in their 37-31 loss to Miami, who have proven unexpectedly resilient this season with three wins in their past five games — when many observers thought they were tanking for the first overall draft pick.
Head coach Brian Flores has always repudiated that notion, and he has been proven correct.
“It’s a team of fighters,” Flores said after Sunday’s game. “This is — we compete. I think that’s something that we talk about day after day after day. We’re going to compete. We’re going to fight. We’re going to give great effort. We’re going to try to be a tough, smart, disciplined football team. That’s what you need if you’re going to come back — really, if you want to play in this league at a good level against good competition like we had out there today, that’s what you need.”
The Dolphins have a lot of work to do over the next few seasons before they can become truly competitive on a week-to-week level, but you get the feeling they have the right head coach.
26. Detroit Lions
(3-8-1. Last week: 27)
The Lions kept their streak this season of holding a lead in every game when they went up 17-7 against the Bears on Thanksgiving, led by quarterback David Blough and his electric start to the game. Blough’s first NFL completion was this 75-yard touchdown pass to wide receiver Kenny Golladay.
Blough also connected with receiver Marvin Jones on an 8-yard touchdown in the first quarter, making him the fourth quarterback to throw for at least 130 yards and two touchdowns in the first quarter of a game this season. The other guys? Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and Aaron Rodgers. So, that went well.
Sadly for the Lions, Matt Patricia’s defense had to take the field as well, and that defense (supposedly Patricia’s calling card) allowed Mitchell Trubisky to make “special throws at special times,” as Bears head coach Matt Nagy put it. Trubisky completed 29 of 38 passes for 338 yards, three touchdowns and one interception in what was his second-most efficient game of the season. Trubisky’s most efficient game of this season came on Nov. 10, when he completed 16 of 23 passes for 173 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions. Guess which defense he did that against? Yep, Detroit. In 2019, in fact, Trubisky has six touchdown passes against the Lions, and seven against the rest of the NFL. Meanwhile, Detroit’s offense is making things work with relative afterthoughts such as Blough and running back Bo Scarbrough. Maybe it’s time to make offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell the interim head coach, and throw a different defensive mind in the soup.
25. New York Jets
(4-8. Last week: 20)
The Jets came into Sunday’s game against the winless Bengals with a three-game winning streak in which they scored 34 points each time. So, this was going to be a laugher, right? Yes, but not in the way Adam Gase’s team intended. By losing 22-6, the Jets became the first team in NFL history to lose two games in the same season to teams that were 0-7 or worse (they also lost to the 0-7 Dolphins), and there was very little resemblance to the team that had shown fire in recent weeks. Incredibly, Gase’s offense didn’t have a single red-zone possession — Sam Darnold got to the Bengals’ 21-yard line at the end of one drive, but that was the end of it. Not a good look against one of the NFL’s worst defenses. The Jets punted six times, gave up a safety, and their last two possessions ended on downs. Darnold was unable to throw a touchdown pass on 48 attempts, and a defense that was supposed to be on an upswing made returning starter Andy Dalton look entirely credible. Were the Jets a better or more consistent team, this would be a “burn the tape” game as opposed to a fair representation of a below-average team at its worst.
24. Arizona Cardinals
(3-8-1. Last week: 22)
While Arizona’s offense has enjoyed a new level of explosiveness and efficiency as head coach and offensive shot-caller Kliff Kingsbury has adjusted his personnel philosophies, the Cardinals’ defense continues to confound and disappoint. A unit that came into its game against the Rams on Sunday ranked 28th against the pass in Football Outsiders’ opponent-adjusted metrics was absolutely gashed by Jared Goff, allowing Goff to complete 24 of 31 passes for 323 yards and a touchdown in the first half alone. Goff wound up with 424 yards and another score as the game got out of hand in the Rams’ favor, and the 34-7 final score is a sobering indicator that while Kingsbury’s offense is on the right track, the defense could need a serious offseason rebuild.
23. Los Angeles Chargers
(4-8. Last week: 25)
Weird stat of the week: The Chargers are 4-8, yet they have a point differential of plus-3. Meanwhile, a team that has found heartbreaking ways to lose games all season did it in a different way against the Broncos on Sunday. With nine seconds left in the game and the score tied at 20, Denver quarterback Drew Lock threw deep downfield to receiver Courtland Sutton. Chargers cornerback Casey Hayward was called for a questionable pass interference penalty that took the ball from the Denver 28 to the Los Angeles 35.
One play later, Brandon McManus kicked a 53-yard field goal that gave Denver the win. After the game, Chargers coach Anthony Lynn expressed his displeasure.
Given the vagaries of the pass interference situation this season in the NFL, Lynn should not be surprised that the infraction was neither clear nor obvious. Nor should we be surprised that the Chargers had their hearts ripped out again late in the game.
22. Cleveland Browns
(5-7. Last week: 17)
During the week leading up to Cleveland’s rematch with the Steelers and the unleashing of all the bad feelings regarding the infamous brawl that ended that first game, Browns head coach Freddie Kitchens’ decision to wear a “Pittsburgh Started It” T-shirt seemed goofy and immature. The Steelers took it as an insult, and took it out on the Browns in a 20-13 win that just about eliminated Cleveland from any hope of playoff contention. The same team thought to be capable of a deep playoff run when the season started now looks more like one of those hastily assembled “dream teams” that look great on paper, but can’t quite get it together on the field. More disconcerting than anything Kitchens wore was the fact that the Steelers adjusted to his offense and shut it down completely in the second half. Kitchens and his Browns have a lot to figure out if they’re going to make a strong finish, even with two games against the Bengals in their last four games.
21. Jacksonville Jaguars
(4-8. Last week: 24)
There are bad quarterback signings, and then, there are bad quarterback signings. The Jaguars pushed themselves into the italics department with the four-year, $88 million contract with $50.125 million guaranteed they gave to Nick Foles this past offseason. He was awful against the Buccaneers’ defense on Sunday, completing seven of 14 passes for 93 yards and an interception and two lost fumbles before he was pulled in favor of sixth-round rookie Gardner Minshew. Head coach Doug Marrone named Minshew the starter for the rest of the season on Monday, which leaves Jacksonville with a massive albatross in Foles’ contract. Foles has a 2020 cap hit of $21.875 million if the Jags want to keep him, and a dead cap hit of $33.875 million if they want to move on. The contract makes him virtually untradeable, and while the team may believe Foles could rebound in 2020, there’s no indication based on recent performance that this will be true. Marrone, if he’s still around, will have to choose between killing his own offense to validate Foles’ existence, or developing Minshew’s considerable potential. This situation is proof of the NFL’s ultimate maxim: When you sign a quarterback to a massive contract, you’d better be sure about it.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
(5-7. Last week: 23)
The Bucs selected LSU linebacker Devin White with the fifth overall pick in the 2019 draft, and when you take a linebacker that high, you obviously want him to be the fulcrum of your defense — even in an era where linebackers generally aren’t. Over the team’s past two games — wins over the Falcons and Jaguars — White has appeared to be just that, looking like the second coming of Derrick Brooks at times. After working his way through tonsillitis and an MCL injury early in the season, White has 10 solo tackles, three tackles for loss, three quarterback hits, two sacks, an interception, and a fumble returned for a touchdown in his past two games. Bruce Arians’ offense still has major issues, most of them tied up in Jameis Winston’s epic inconsistency, but the franchise appears to have hit big on its high-ticket defensive draft pick in 2019.
19. Philadelphia Eagles
(5-7. Last week: 16)
Since they beat the Patriots in Super Bowl LII at the end of the 2017 season, the Eagles have compiled a 15-15 record. Not what fans expected from a team with one of the brightest head coaches and one of the better young quarterbacks in the NFL. But as much as Doug Pederson has tried to coach his way through Carson Wentz’s injury issues, an offense with no receivers able to gain separation on a consistent basis, and a defense that can swing from pretty good to absolutely abysmal in the blink of an eye, it’s not going well. Sunday’s 37-31 loss to the Dolphins was perhaps the nadir of the Pederson era. Over the past three seasons, teams were 45-0 when holding a 14-point second-half lead against opponents with records five or more games below .500. That streak ended when Miami was able to crawl out of a 28-14 third-quarter deficit. Philly’s special-teams unit was embarrassed by the most creative touchdown of the season, cornerback Jalen Mills was absolutely torched all day, and though Wentz had a decent day, it didn’t matter. The Eagles still control their own destiny in the NFC East with two games against the Giants, and one each against the Cowboys and Redskins, but that’s more an indictment of the NFC East than anything else.
18. Carolina Panthers
(5-7. Last week: 15)
One week after a close loss to the Saints in which Carolina seemed like a team on the verge of doing something relevant this season, it all fell apart against a Redskins squad that has spent most of 2019 insisting on losing in the most agonizing ways possible. The Panthers one-upped Washington on Sunday by blowing a 14-0 first-quarter lead and allowing the Redskins to score 29 unanswered points. Ultimately, Carolina ended its final drive on the Kyle Allen sack below that lost 23 yards. Allen ignored a wide-open receiver in the end zone and eventually fumbled on the play, which should go down as the worst of the 2019 season.
The Panthers have now lost four consecutive games, and this marks the second season in a row in which they’ve collapsed down the stretch — last season, they took a 5-2 record halfway through to a 7-9 finish. There comes a point where Ron Rivera and his staff have to be a bit concerned about their jobs.
17. Chicago Bears
(6-6. Last week: 21)
If only Mitchell Trubisky could play the Lions every week, the Bears wouldn’t have a rather large quarterback problem. They can’t, of course, which means that they do, but Trubisky’s ability to beat the daylights out of Detroit’s defense over the past month (two games, 45 completions in 61 attempts for 511 yards, six touchdowns and one interception) has given Chicago two crucial wins and a glimmer of hope. It’s difficult to say these performances represent a larger positive trend — it’s more likely an indictment of a Lions defense that was supposed to be much better than this — but with an inconsistent defense and a running game that has struggled to gain traction, Trubisky will have to maintain that pace against the Cowboys, Packers, Chiefs and Vikings to finish the season if this team is to make an improbable postseason run.
16. Indianapolis Colts
(6-6. Last week: 14)
We all know that the Colts are short on explosive plays with Jacoby Brissett as their quarterback, and that continued in a 31-17 loss to the Titans in which Brissett completed just one pass in three attempts of 20 or more air yards. That was OK when Indianapolis took a 17-7 first-half lead, but when Ryan Tannehill got hot and Derrick Henry started running wild, the Colts, with most of Brissett’s primary targets injured, had no answer. Brissett, whose two interceptions matched his combined total for October and November, has been put in a position where he has to do more than he’s capable of doing, and though Indy’s defense is solid most weeks, they had few answers for the Titans on Sunday. Brissett may not be the long-term answer to replace Andrew Luck, but when the Colts are doing their offseason shopping, they’ll need to address several more deficient positions before that one.
15. Dallas Cowboys
(6-6. Last week: 11)
Jerry Jones may have quieted those questioning Jason Garrett’s job security in the short term after Dallas’ 26-15 Thanksgiving loss to the Bills, in which the Cowboys looked outmatched in every category.
“This is not the time for me,” an emotional Jones said after the game. “I’m looking ahead at another ballgame. I’m looking ahead at winning four or five straight and helping write a story they will talk about, how it looks like you’re down and out. And I mean that. That’s the way that I’m operating. Every decision that I make over the next month will be with an eye in mind to get us in the Super Bowl now.”
That would indeed be an amazing story. The Cowboys still haven’t beaten a winning team this season. Ezekiel Elliott hasn’t had a 100-yard game since Nov. 4, and that four-game drought marks the longest of his career. Amari Cooper got eight catches for 85 yards after barking about getting more targets from Dak Prescott (he had two against the Patriots in Week 12 and caught neither). Dallas’ defense has recorded just four interceptions on the season, the NFL’s worst total, and through 13 weeks, the Cowboys are minus-4 in overall turnover differential. This team has too much talent at too many positions to play this inconsistently, and if that doesn’t come down to coaching, what does?
14. Oakland Raiders
(6-6. Last week: 12)
After a 40-9 embarrassment against the Chiefs in which Jon Gruden’s offense mercifully ended a touchdown-less streak that went back to the second quarter of Oakland’s Week 11 win over the Bengals, Kansas City safety Tyrann Mathieu mentioned that the offense he was facing was eminently predictable, based on what quarterback Derek Carr did at the line of scrimmage.
“The biggest thing is we knew that when [Carr] did take shots downfield, we understood it pre-snap by the formation, and it put us in position to make a play. … Tight ends, running backs, check-downs, that’s his game. We were able to capitalize when he did try to throw it downfield.”
Carr’s response?
Well, that does count as doing something different. Carr finished his day with 20 completions in 30 attempts for 222 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions, including one by Mathieu. Last week, Gruden benched Carr in favor of Mike Glennon, who fumbled on two of his first three snaps. Perhaps it’s time for Gruden, who has never been patient with quarterbacks, to understand that the guy he’s stuck with through at least the end of this season is fundamentally limited, and must be schemed to success.
13. Los Angeles Rams
(7-5. Last week: 19)
If Jared Goff could play consistently as he did against the Cardinals on Sunday, there wouldn’t be so much angst about his contract, his future, and how limited Sean McVay’s offense has become with him at the helm. But against Arizona’s leaky pass defense, Goff looked as good as he ever will, completing 32 of 43 passes for 424 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions. Todd Gurley also got back on track with 95 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries. It may be too late for the Rams to do anything in a postseason sense, but for one Sunday, they managed to look like the team they envisioned in training camp.
12. Pittsburgh Steelers
(7-5. Last week: 18)
The big story of Pittsburgh’s 20-13 win over the Browns wasn’t the revenge factor following the brawl that happened when these teams met on Nov. 14. Nor was it the efforts of Devlin “Duck” Hodges, the 12th-string quarterback who completed 14 of 21 passes for 212 yards, one touchdown, one interception, and had some impressive deep passes. The story of this game, and of the Steelers’ season, is a defense that looks able to match any Mike Tomlin has guided since he became Pittsburgh’s head coach in 2007. Per ESPN’s Dianna Russini, several players spoke about Tomlin’s brilliant halftime adjustments that shut the Browns down. And since Week 3, when they made the trade for safety Minkah Fitzpatrick that redefined Pittsburgh’s secondary, the Steelers rank first in the NFL in takeaways (28), first in quarterback hits (78), first in passes defended (65), first in forced fumbles (17), first in fumble recoveries (13), second in interceptions (15), second in sacks (38), and tied for third in defensive touchdowns (3).
No matter what happens with this team this year — and right now, they have serious playoff aspirations despite a nightmarish quarterback situation — Tomlin should earn heavy consideration for Coach of the Year when all is said and done.
11. Tennessee Titans
(7-5. Last week: 11)
For once, Ryan Tannehill wasn’t the big story in a Titans win. Though the reformed quarterback looked good in a 31-17 win over the Colts, completing 17 of 22 passes for 182 yards and two touchdowns, this game was really in running back Derrick Henry’s hands. Henry gained 149 yards and scored a touchdown on 26 carries, proving once again that he is the kind of powerful, sustaining back you can build an old-school offense around. Over his past three games, Henry has rushed 68 times for 496 yards, a 7.3 yards per carry average, and five rushing touchdowns. With Tannehill looking explosive and consistent and a defense rounding into shape, the Titans — who have won five of their past six games — are starting to look like that wild-card team nobody wants to deal with in the playoffs.
10. Minnesota Vikings
(8-4. Last week: 7)
Minnesota’s 37-30 loss to the Seahawks on Monday night wasn’t Kirk Cousins’ fault, though Cousins became the first quarterback in NFL history to lose his first eight Monday Night Football games. If anyone was to blame, it was a secondary that’s been the bane of Mike Zimmer’s existence all season — especially cornerback Xavier Rhodes on this 60-yard touchdown to receiver David Moore.
Rhodes gave up four receptions on four targets for 99 yards and that touchdown on the night, adding to his 47 catches on 55 targets for 525 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions. Given the extent to which head coach Mike Zimmer relies on his cornerbacks to execute properly, Rhodes’ performance all season has to be a giant concern.
9. Kansas City Chiefs
(8-4. Last week: 10)
Over his past two games, Patrick Mahomes has completed just 55.7% of his passes for 357 yards, 5.85 yards per attempt, two touchdowns, one interception, and just three deep completions in eight attempts. It’s the worst two-game stretch of Mahomes’ career, and while one assumes he’ll snap out of it, it’s also good news for the Chiefs that they’ve beaten the Chiefs and Raiders in that span. In fact, the Chiefs dragged Mahomes to the finish line Sunday in a 40-9 beatdown of the Raiders in which the defense atypically led the way. Steve Spagnuolo’s squad picked off Derek Carr twice, including a 46-yard pick-six from rookie safety Juan Thornhill. Carr was pressured often and sacked twice, and the Raiders didn’t score a touchdown until late in the fourth quarter. A Chiefs team that can sustain through an unusual Mahomes slump with its defense is bad news for the rest of the NFL when Mahomes gets back to his usual groove.
8. Green Bay Packers
(9-3. Last week: 5)
After the Packers were undone in Week 12 by the 49ers in a 37-8 embarrassment, facing the Giants’ defense had to be a severe relief for Aaron Rodgers and the rest of the Green Bay offense. It sure looked like that on the field, as Rodgers looked like the ideal version of himself against a secondary that didn’t seem to know which coverage to use or who should be covering whom. Rodgers tore that defense apart for four touchdown passes, and Mike Pettine’s opportunistic defense picked Giants quarterback Daniel Jones off three times. The extent to which Green Bay folded under the intense heat of San Francisco’s defense makes this team an uncertain entity even if it does win the NFC North, but it was reassuring to see Rodgers dissect a defense with ease.
7. Buffalo Bills
(9-3. Last week: 9)
It is now officially time to stop ignoring the Bills as the products of an easy schedule — when you have a 9-3 record, you have done enough right to be taken seriously. Yes, Buffalo had by far the NFL’s worst slate of opponents coming into their Thanksgiving matchup in Dallas, but going out of Big D with a 26-15 win that was far more dominant than the score might indicate? That was the very definition of a statement win.
Josh Allen completed 79% of his passes for 231 yards and a touchdown. John Brown, perhaps the NFL’s most underrated receiver, threw a 28-yard touchdown pass to running back Devin Singletary. Allen added 43 rushing yards and a touchdown on 10 carries. And a defense that has flown under the radar most of the season sacked Dak Prescott four times, limited him to two touchdown passes on 49 attempts, and racked up nine passes defensed and three forced fumbles.
Now, it comes time for Buffalo to prove it on a different level — with games against the Ravens, Steelers, Patriots and Jets in the next four weeks, Sean McDermott’s team faces the toughest remaining slate. That’s skewed to a large degree by the Ravens and Patriots, but the point still stands. There’s a lot more to prove here, but this is a team capable of proving it.
6. Houston Texans
(8-4. Last week: 9)
Before Sunday night, the Patriots had given up four passing touchdowns all season. Against the Texans in a 28-22 loss that pushed New England out of the AFC’s top seed, the Texans matched that total. Deshaun Watson threw three of those touchdowns, completing 18 of 25 passes for 234 yards — and he also caught a touchdown pass on this reverse option flip from receiver DeAndre Hopkins:
Yes, Houston’s offense was humming against the Patriots’ generally outstanding pass defense, but what makes the Texans an interesting playoff contender is a defense that is trending upward, especially a secondary that is finding success with first-round castoffs from other teams, such as Bradley Roby and Vernon Hargreaves. Add the possibility that J.J. Watt could return from a torn pectoral muscle in time for the postseason, and Bill O’Brien’s squad is in a pretty good place.
5. New England Patriots
(10-2. Last week: 3)
There’s a point late in NFL Films’ epic two-part “A Football Life” episode on Bill Belichick, in which Belichick and Tom Brady are standing on the sideline in 2009, stating flatly that this team just doesn’t have it this season. That Patriots team finished 10-6, and were eviscerated in the wild-card round of the playoffs by the Ravens, 33-14.
It’s easy to imagine that conversation happening on the sideline this season. We all know how foolish it is to write this team off at any time — after all, the 2018 Patriots lost to the Dolphins and Steelers in Weeks 14 and 15 before redefining themselves as a power-running team and bullying their way to another Lombardi Trophy. It’s always possible that Belichick’s crew could turn it around again.
That said, after Sunday night’s 28-22 loss to the Texans, it’s just as easy to say that this team … well, just doesn’t have it. Belichick and Brady were talking about the team’s coachability back then, which doesn’t seem to be the problem now. Now, the problem is simply a lack of offensive talent, and a defense that has been historically great through most of the season finally broke against a superior offense. New England had allowed four passing touchdowns before Sunday night; they allowed four against the Texans, including an amazing option play in which DeAndre Hopkins pitched the ball to Deshaun Watson.
Watson completed 18 of 25 passes for 234 yards and three touchdowns, often riddling a New England defense that’s not used to such things. Meanwhile, Tom Brady completed 24 of 47 passes for 326 yards, three touchdowns and one pick, with two of those touchdown passes coming in the fourth quarter. But Brady also just missed having a completion rate under 50% in two consecutive games for the first time in his career.
Maybe the Patriots will find their way, as they generally seem to do. But right now? This Patriots team just doesn’t have it.
4. San Francisco 49ers
(10-2. Last week: 2)
The 49ers came up short in a 20-17 loss to the Ravens in a game that represented a missed opportunity for San Francisco to set itself apart in the NFC. But Jimmy Garoppolo did separate himself in one category that had bedeviled him through the 2019 season — performance against the blitz. Coming into this game, Garoppolo had completed 81 of 124 passes for 922 yards, eight touchdowns and seven interceptions when blitzed. Against a Baltimore defense that ranked first in blitz percentage (50.7%) and dialed it up even more against him, Garoppolo kept things in check. The Ravens blitzed Garoppolo on 21 of his 25 of his dropbacks, and he responded with 12 completions in 18 attempts for 149 yards and a touchdown pass. That’s a small consolation for a team that could wind up as low as the fifth seed in the NFC, but having your quarterback break the spell against heavy pressure is a good thing. The consistency of this positive trend will be heavily tested next Sunday when the 49ers face a Saints defense that sacked Matt Ryan nine times on Thanksgiving.
3. New Orleans Saints
(10-2. Last week: 5)
It says a lot for a team’s balance when it can beat the daylights out of an opponent without any of its biggest offensive names putting up huge performances. That was the case for the Saints in their 26-18 win over the Falcons. Drew Brees completed just 18 of 30 passes for 184 yards and a touchdown. Alvin Kamara gained 61 yards on 11 carries. Michael Thomas caught six passes for just 48 yards.
None of that mattered, though, because New Orleans’ defense went nuts on Matt Ryan, sacking him nine times, hitting him 13 more times, and making his day even worse with this extremely ill-advised tackle attempt and against defensive lineman Shy Tuttle.
Backup quarterback/Swiss Army knife Taysom Hill blocked a punt, ran for a touchdown and caught a touchdown pass. Cameron Jordan had four sacks, and edge bookend Marcus Davenport had two of his own.
“When you have guys like Mike Thomas, Alvin Kamara, Jared Cook, the list goes on, it kind of creates opportunities for little old me, because it creates so much attention that’s put on those guys,” Hill said after the game.
“Coach (Sean Payton) is one of the best at being creative and putting guys in positions to be successful. I got lucky because I was that guy tonight.”
The Saints earned their third straight NFC South title with this win, and they’re right to want more. When you have depth and breadth along the roster like this, you are going to be a very tough out in the postseason.
2. Seattle Seahawks
(10-2. Last week: 4)
The Seahawks came into Monday Night Football against the Vikings with a 5-0 record in games decided by four points or less, and an average margin of victory of 5.4 in their nine wins. And given the fact that Seattle and Minnesota are about as similarly designed as two NFL teams can be, you knew this was going to be a tight one. Things went a bit off the rails with this bizarre pick-six for safety Anthony Harris off a Russell Wilson deflection…
…but the Seahawks were able to swing back from that 14-7 deficit with the dual rushing attack of Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny, and Wilson’s own ability to exploit Minnesota’s vulnerable outside cornerbacks, especially Xavier Rhodes, in a 37-30 win. Wilson didn’t advance his own MVP argument against Lamar Jackson (who may have the thing wrapped up at this point), but he did take back the lead in touchdown passes on the season from Jackson with his two on the night. Perhaps the most important thing for Pete Carroll’s team as they look to make a dent in the playoffs is a secondary that, aside from the occasional busted play, has shown a great deal of improvement in the second half of the season.
1. Baltimore Ravens
(10-2. Last week: 1)
Six days after they demolished the Rams in a 45-6 Monday Night Football showcase for Lamar Jackson’s talents, the Ravens found themselves in a real pier-sixer against the 49ers, who looked entirely capable of taking John Harbaugh’s team down. San Francisco fooled Baltimore’s defense for a 33-yard touchdown pass from Jimmy Garoppolo to Deebo Samuel on a fourth-down gamble on their first possession, and the Ravens responded by punting at the end of a drive with Jackson on the field for the first time since Week 9.
Jackson eventually was able to find his footing as a runner, gaining 101 yards and scoring a touchdown on 16 carries, but San Francisco countered him as a passer with a mush-rush that kept Jackson in the pocket, and the 49ers’ secondary was good enough to limit the damage. Jackson threw five touchdown passes against the Rams on just 20 attempts, but this time around, there was just one touchdown pass on 23 attempts — and a lot of missed connections with his receivers as the torrential weather at Baltimore’s M&T Bank Stadium presented unfamiliar challenges for Jackson.
In the end, it was the efforts of the most prolific fourth-down team in the NFL that turned the tide. With 6:33 left in the game, Garoppolo attempted a pass to tight end George Kittle, but the pass was knocked down by defensive end Chris Wormley. Baltimore took the ball with 6:28 left, and the 49ers never saw the ball again. Justin Tucker’s 49-yard field goal as the clock ran out gave the Ravens a tight, tough win that positions them for the top seed in the AFC.
Touchdown Wire editor Doug Farrar previously covered football for Yahoo! Sports, Sports Illustrated, Bleacher Report, the Washington Post, and Football Outsiders. His first book, “The Genius of Desperation,” a schematic history of professional football, was published by Triumph Books in 2018 and won the Professional Football Researchers Association’s Nelson Ross Award for “Outstanding recent achievement in pro football research and historiography.”
