The NFL’s unstoppable force will meet the NFL’s immovable object in December 1, when the 10-1 49ers travel to M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore to take on the 9-2 Ravens. We tend to overuse the phrase “appointment viewing,” but the term fits here.
No defense has been able to stop Lamar Jackson and the Ravens consistently throughout the 2019 season. If you manage to shut him down as a passer (an increasingly difficult proposition), he will weld your butt to the field as a runner. Baltimore’s defense has also improved exponentially since trading for cornerback Marcus Peters in mid-October; they haven’t lost since Week 4, and they’re coming off a 45-6 shellacking of the Rams on Monday Night Football.
Meanwhile, the 49ers are undefeated in regulation; their only loss on the season came against Seattle in overtime. And they just took the Packers apart on Sunday Night Football to the tune of a 37-8 demolition. San Francisco’s combination of pass rush and secondary play is unparalleled in today’s NFL, and outside of Arizona quarterback Kyler Murray, who’s put up two games with a passer rating over 100 against them, and Russell Wilson, who ran six times for 53 yards in Week 10, things get really interesting when you superimpose Jackson and Baltimore’s preposterous rushing offense into that equation.
Both teams have specific vulnerabilities that could upend them. San Francisco has allowed over 100 rushing yards in each of their last eight games, and as quickly as their fronts move, they are a bit susceptible to misdirection. Baltimore’s run defense might be the only one in the NFL more diverse than San Francisco’s, so there’s that. And if the Ravens continue their trend of blitzing heavily to create pressure (coming into Monday night’s game, Baltimore had a blitz rate of 49.9%, by far the most in the league), that may open things up for Jimmy Garoppolo and an increasingly prolific passing game.
Whatever game you were intending to watch this Sunday, if it’s not this one, you might want to change your plans. Unless you’re under the assumption that you’ll see both of these teams in Miami in February, which seems an entirely reasonable proposition.
32. Cincinnati Bengals
(0-11. Last week: 32)
Remember all those horrible Bengals teams of the 1990s? The ones coached by Dave Shula and Bruce Coslet, drafting players such as David Klingler, Ki-Jana Carter and Akili Smith in the first round? Well, none of those teams ever started a season 0-11, but the 2019 Bengals have. In their 16-10 loss to a Steelers team that shifted between Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges at quarterback, the Bengals once again looked outmatched. Quarterback Ryan Finley completed just 12 of 26 passes for 192 yards and a touchdown, and if Tyler Boyd hadn’t been making amazing, athletic catches out there, Finley’s stat line would have been far worse. That’s probably why head coach Zac Taylor announced Monday that the team will switch back from Finley to Andy Dalton, for whatever good that will do. And a defense coordinated by Lou Anarumo continues to be one of the NFL’s worst. The only good news is that Cincinnati has what looks like a lead-pipe lock on the first overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft.
31. New York Giants
(2-9. Last week: 30)
Well, at least Saquon Barkley managed to pull himself out of a nightmarish two-game slump that saw him gain just 29 yards on 27 carries. In the Giants’ 19-14 loss to the Bears, Barkley gained 59 yards on 17 carries. Not what you want from a running back you took No. 2 overall in the 2018 draft, but bad teams have to take what they can get. The Giants haven’t won a game since Sept. 29, and committing an oh-fer for October and November is the kind of thing that gets your head coach fired at the end of the year if there aren’t positive returns in December. In fact, as longtime NFL writer Gary Myers points out, the Giants and Mets last won on the same day. Of course, recent rumors aligning current Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett to Big Blue might be out the window after Dallas was outcoached in about 17 different ways against the Patriots. General manager Dave Gettleman doesn’t have a lot to work with, and that’s his own fault to a great extent.
30. Miami Dolphins
(2-9. Last week: 29)
Baker Mayfield came into Cleveland’s Sunday game against the Dolphins with the lowest passer rating (76.8) in the NFL among quarterbacks who had played at least 50% of their team’s snaps. But Miami’s defense has been a cure for what ails struggling quarterbacks through most of the season, and that was also true for Mayfield, who threw three first-half touchdowns in a 41-24 Browns win that pushed Miami down to 2-9 for the season and further erased the goodwill of the team’s two-game winning streak in early November. When general manager Chris Grier and his staff put together their final draft board next year, defensive back and pass-rusher should be all over that thing. The Dolphins won’t really know what kind of defensive shot-caller head coach Brian Flores is until and unless they give him something to work with.
29. Washington Redskins
(2-9. Last week: 31)
Last week, the Redskins scored their first touchdown in four games in what turned out to be a 34-17 loss to the Jets, and the team’s social media account treated it like a playoff win.
This week, in what turned out to be Washington’s first home win since Week 7 of last season, quarterback Dwayne Haskins was so excited about the improbable 19-16 win over the Lions, he missed the final play of the game because he was too busy celebrating with fans and taking selfies to find his helmet and get back in the game. Not a great look for a guy who completed 13 of 29 passes for 156 yards, no touchdowns and one interception and was missing open receivers all over the place, but the Redskins’ overcooked reactions to any manner of success show just how far the team has fallen.
28. Denver Broncos
(3-8. Last week: 25)
In Week 11, the Broncos put up a 20-0 first-half lead on the Vikings, only to lose that game 27-23 and become the first team in the past five years to lose after building a first-half advantage that large. Against the Bills on Sunday, it was as if the offense didn’t want to fly that close to the sun again. Buffalo’s excellent defense stifled the Broncos all day in a 20-3 beatdown. Brandon Allen completed just 10 of 25 passes for 82 yards and an interception, receiver Courtland Sutton caught just one pass on eight targets, and the Broncos finished the game with five straight three-and-out drives totaling 7, minus-3, minus-9, 7 and zero yards. Whatever room for encouragement came about through Denver’s perambulations through Minnesota’s vulnerable secondary completely disappeared against the Bills’ underrated defense.
27. Detroit Lions
(3-7-1. Last week: 22)
In NFL history, only one non-strike team has held the lead in each of its first 11 games, and won three or fewer — the 2004 Chiefs. That Chiefs team started their season 3-8 and wound up with a 7-9 record, so we suppose head coach Matt Patricia could tell his team that the 2019 Lions, who have now joined that short list, are capable of going on a nice run. However, the opposing arguments are comprehensive. Backup quarterback Jeff Driskel was completely lost against the Redskins’ defense (which is a severe indictment in and of itself), completing 20 of 33 passes for 207 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions. Detroit’s run game is nonexistent, and its man-based pass defense has fallen apart in a relative sense this season. This franchise fired Jim Caldwell as its head coach after the 2017 season because two straight 9-7 seasons weren’t good enough. What does the Ford family make of Patricia’s 9-17-1 mark through almost two seasons?
26. Atlanta Falcons
(3-8. Last week: 24)
In their last two games prior to Sunday, the Falcons switched up their defensive coaching responsibilities to great effect, with definitive road wins against the Panthers and Saints. That all fell apart against the Buccaneers, when Dan Quinn’s defense couldn’t do much to stop anyone, especially receiver Chris Godwin, who went off for 184 yards and two touchdowns on seven catches. Allowing a touchdown pass to 347-pound defensive tackle Vita Vea added insult to injury.
If you want an anatomy of a busted coverage, here’s Quinn explaining Godwin’s 71-yard touchdown in the first quarter.
“So in Cover 2, two-deep safeties, they hit a seam down the middle of the field. I thought [linebacker] Deion [Jones] was in a position to make a play on it,” Quinn said, via ESPN’s Vaughn McClure. “He didn’t make it. If you look back, I’m sure there’s correctable moments for a safety, whether that be for a landmark.”
Jameis Winston deserved credit for a great anticipation throw, but yeah — this looked a lot more like the Falcons’ defense did before the Week 9 bye. Not good at all.
25. Los Angeles Chargers
(4-7. Week 12 Bye. Last week: 23)
Philip Rivers led all quarterbacks with seven combined interceptions in Weeks 10 and 11, but it’s the situational nature of those interceptions that has essentially ended the Chargers’ season with losses to the Raiders and Chiefs. In the final two minutes of those games, Rivers threw two interceptions and completed just four of 18 passes for 77 yards and no touchdowns to his own team. This has been a problem all season, as Rivers has thrown four of his 14 interceptions with less than two minutes left in the Chargers’ games. It was an unthinkable notion even last season, but is it time for the team to move on from the player who has defined their offense since he became the starting quarterback in 2006? Rivers will be a 38-year-old free agent to start the 2020 league year, and right now, it’s tough to argue for his re-signing — or, for that matter, any other team taking a large-salary gamble on his future.
24. Jacksonville Jaguars
(4-7. Last week: 20)
This past offseason, the Jaguars signed quarterback Nick Foles to a four-year, $88 million contract with $50.125 million guaranteed. The contract carries a 2020 cap hit of $21.875 million and a further dead cap hit of $33,875 million if the team decided to move on. That’s a lot of scratch for a guy who’s completed 65 of 95 passes for 568 yards, two touchdowns and one interception in his two games back from a broken collarbone. In that time, Foles has completed just three of 13 passes on throws of 20 or more air yards, for 65 yards, one touchdown and one interception, making him one of the league’s least-impressive deep throwers — and a decided contrast to backup Gardner Minshew. The sixth-round rookie may have a development curve, but he has proven to be a better full-field passer, and that’s something the Jaguars are going to need to keep up with division opponents such as the Titans, who ravaged Jacksonville’s defense in a 42-20 beatdown on Sunday. There are times when the need for a franchise quarterback puts a franchise in quarterback purgatory. Financially, that’s where the Jaguars appear to be at this point in time.
23. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
(4-7. Last week: 28)
One tends to wonder just how well Bruce Arians’ offense would run with a relatively consistent quarterback. In Tampa Bay’s 35-22 win over a Falcons team that had enjoyed a bit of a defensive hot streak in the previous two games, Chris Godwin racked up seven catches for 184 yards and two touchdowns — his third game of the season with over 150 receiving yards. Battery mate Mike Evans also has three games with over 150 receiving yards this season, making the Godwin-Evans duo the first in NFL history to match each others’ feat in the same season for the same team. Jameis Winston threw those touchdown passes, as well as a marvelous 1-yarder to defensive tackle Vita Vea, who presumably became the heaviest player in NFL history to catch a touchdown pass. But Winston also threw two picks, lifting his league-leading total to 20. Arians is fond of blaming everybody but Winston when it comes to those picks, and it’s true at times, but there are several quarterbacks around the league who would do just about anything to have receivers of Evans’ and Godwin’s caliber. Perhaps next season, one of those quarterbacks will.
22. Arizona Cardinals
(3-7-1. Week 12 Bye. Last week: 19)
It’s been interesting and entertaining to watch Kliff Kingsbury adjust his personnel groupings through the season, with increasingly impressive results. Through the first four weeks of the season, the Cardinals basically had an Air Raid offense, running 10 personnel (one running back, no tight ends, four receivers) on 59% of their plays, per Sharp Football Stats. No other team ran 10 on more than 11% of its plays. Over the next four weeks, the Cardinals moved predominantly to 11 personnel — 46% of their plays had one running back, one tight end, and three receivers. Over the past three games, the Cardinals have used 12 personnel, with one running back, two tight ends and two receivers. Over that three-week stretch, Kyler Murray has completed 17 of 20 passes for 8.5 yards per attempt, two touchdowns, no interceptions and a passer rating of 135.2. In an NFL where most offensive coordinators find one primary personnel grouping and stick with it, Kingsbury has been moving the goalposts to great effect.
21. Chicago Bears
(5-6. Last week: 21)
In the first half of Chicago’s game against the Giants on Sunday, Mitchell Trubisky completed 13 of 23 passes for 107 yards and an interception, and it appeared to be more of the same for Chicago’s fundamentally limited quarterback. But Trubisky was able to exploit New York’s subpar secondary to a point in the second half, finishing his day with this touchdown pass to Allen Robinson, and a quarterback keeper for another score.
Has any receiver in the NFL’s modern era been saddled with worse quarterback play than Robinson? Selected in the second round of the 2014 draft, Robinson has had the following players as his primary quarterbacks: Blake Bortles, Chad Henne, Cody Kessler, Trubisky and Chase Daniel. At least DeAndre Hopkins finally got Deshaun Watson after so many seasons of middle-tier dreck; Robinson is still waiting for his quarterback savior.
20. New York Jets
(4-7. Last week: 27)
Don’t look now, but the Jets are officially feisty with a three-game winning streak following a 1-7 start that had many wondering if head coach Adam Gase would make it out of the season with a job. Gang Green has scored 34 points in all three wins, outscoring their opponents 102-47, and defensive coordinator Gregg Williams presided over the benching of Oakland quarterback Derek Carr as the Jets thrashed the Raiders, 34-3, on Sunday. Carr was limited to 15 completions in 27 attempts for 127 yards and an interception. Sam Darnold was far more efficient, going 20 of 29 for 315 yards and two touchdowns. It may be too late for a playoff run, but this has been an impressive streak.
19. Los Angeles Rams
(6-5. Last week: 18)
The Rams have been teetering on the edge of irrelevance all season, as the reigning NFC champs have struggled to get and keep things together on either side of the ball, especially on offense. But this was unlike anything the franchise could be prepared for. Los Angeles’ 45-6 loss to the Ravens on Monday Night Football was the worst loss for the Rams by point differential in the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum era, which goes back to 1946. Wade Phillips had absolutely no answer for what Lamar Jackson brought as a runner or as a passer, and Sean McVay had to be looking on with deep envy at an opposing quarterback who can tilt the field whenever he wants. Jared Goff, the guy McVay’s going to be tied to for a very long time, was his usual unimpressive self, completing 26 of 37 passes for 212 yards, no touchdowns, and two interceptions. If the Rams needed a reality check to shake them out of any thoughts of postseason potential, this should do it.
18. Pittsburgh Steelers
(6-5. Last week: 17)
Pittsburgh quarterback Mason Rudolph escaped suspension for his role in the Steelers-Browns fracas in Week 11, but he couldn’t get past his own limitations against the Bengals’ generally awful defense in Week 12. Rudolph threw four interceptions in the Steelers’ loss to Cleveland, but that was overshadowed by Myles Garrett whacking him over the head with his own helmet and Garrett’s subsequent unsubstantiated claim that Rudolph used a racial slur during the incident. Nonetheless, Rudolph completed eight of 16 passes for 85 yards and an interception against Cincinnati, and head coach Mike Tomlin had seen enough, pulling Rudolph in favor of Devlin “Duck” Hodges. As Hodges helped lead the team away from what would have been a mortifying loss to the NFL’s only winless team, it may be that Hodges becomes the starter. And as Pittsburgh next faces the Browns again, there may be more than one reason to go that route.
17. Cleveland Browns
(5-6. Last week: 26)
In their first game since the Thursday Night Debacle against the Steelers that resulted in the indefinite suspension of Myles Garrett and a total of three suspensions, 33 players fined, and those fines totaling $732,422, the Browns needed a bit of stability to get back on track. The Dolphins were eager to provide it, as Baker Mayfield threw three first-half touchdown passes, Odell Beckham Jr. caught his first touchdown pass since Week 2, and linebacker Joe Schobert became the fourth linebacker in the Super Bowl era, and the first since the Colts’ Cato June in 2005, to record multiple interceptions in consecutive games. At 5-6, the Browns still have faint playoff hopes if they can stay out of their own way.
16. Philadelphia Eagles
(5-6. Last week: 14)
Philadelphia, we have a problem. In the Eagles’ 17-9 loss to the Seahawks on Sunday, Philly’s passing offense looked as it has throughout most of the season without the injured DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery — slow, severely limited and incapable of making big plays. It didn’t help that Carson Wentz frequently overshot his targets on everything from deep passes to simple screens, but anyone who’s watched this offense over the course of this season knows that the primary issue is systemic — an offensive line incapable of protection, a balky quarterback and a receiving corps that’s not on the same page. Wentz threw two interceptions and fumbled three times — two of which Seattle recovered. Wentz was sacked three times and was hit nine more times against a depleted Seahawks pass-rushing unit, and at this point, it’s easy to wonder if Doug Pederson’s offense will ever get on track this season.
15. Carolina Panthers
(5-6. Last week: 16)
The Panthers did enough to upset the Saints — they really did. Kyle Allen completed 23 of 36 passes for 256 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions. Carolina’s running attack put up 121 yards and a touchdown on 29 carries. The defense gave up the occasional big play to Drew Brees and his targets, but Allen returned the favor by hitting D.J. Moore for plays of 51 and 52 yards. The goat in this case was kicker Joey Slye, who missed two extra points and a late field goal in what turned into a 34-31 Saints win. It was a heartbreaker for the Panthers, but they have to be encouraged by Allen’s development and the knowledge that through most of the game, they were able to hang with a team that appeared to be much better on paper.
14. Indianapolis Colts
(6-5. Last week: 12)
The good news for the Colts over their past two games is that they’ve become one of the NFL’s most effective and prolific rushing teams. In their Week 11 win over the Jaguars, they had two 100-yard rushers (Jonathan Williams and Marlon Mack), and the franchise hadn’t done that since 1985. Mack was out with a hand injury, so Williams and Nyheim Hines took over against the Texans last Thursday night, combining for 155 yards. Quarterback Jacoby Brissett added 20 yards and a rushing touchdown of his own. The bad news? Indianapolis fell short against the Texans, 20-17, in part because Brissett was unable to connect with his receivers on deep shots. Brissett threw just two passes of 20 or more air yards — both to T.Y. Hilton, and both fell incomplete. Deshaun Watson, on the other hand, hit five deep passes on nine attempts for 184 yards and two touchdowns. That was a fundamental difference in this game, and it’s a matter of concern for the Colts — Brissett has completed just nine deep passes on 28 attempts for 267 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions all season. To put that into perspective, there are 25 quarterbacks with more deep attempts, and 24 of them have more deep completions. Losing that key divisional battle was one thing; the larger issue for Frank Reich and his coaching staff is how to propel their offense forward without the capability for explosive passing plays.
13. Dallas Cowboys
(6-5. Last week: 11)
“We still got a long way to go, but with the makeup of this team, I shouldn’t be this frustrated.”
That was Jerry Jones’ response after his Cowboys dropped a winnable game to the Patriots in a rainstorm in Foxborough on Sunday afternoon, and most of his dissatisfaction was clearly directed at head coach Jason Garrett and special teams coach Keith O’Quinn. Given how the 13-9 loss transpired, it’s tough to argue with Jones in either case.
“They know how to play this game, in this weather,” Jones said of the Patriots. “Their team was masterful. Their coach was masterful. … It was a significant setback for our team. We need this win. We needed a win against an opponent like this, and we haven’t had one.”
The Cowboys haven’t beaten a team with a winning record all season. Garrett’s decision to kick a field goal, down 13-6, with 6:04 left in the game, went against just about every go-for-it-on-fourth-down metric you can dig up, but it’s pretty clear that Garrett doesn’t pay attention to that stuff. And Dallas’ disasters on special teams — from a blocked punt to a third-quarter penalty binge that turned fourth-and-13 to fourth-and-23 — presented a net negative that proved difficult to overcome. The Cowboys were right to be outraged about tripping penalties that affected two of their drives, but it’s been a truism for years that the Patriots often beat you because you do the dumb things they don’t, and for Garrett and his staff, this game was that in triplicate. Dallas has a short week before facing the Bills on Thanksgiving, which probably gives Garrett a short-term pardon. Any more turkeys like this, though, and the axe could fall quickly.
12. Oakland Raiders
(6-5. Last week: 10)
Derek Carr came into Sunday’s game against the Jets with a 72.5% completion rate, an 8.0 yard-per-attempt average, 15 touchdown passes to five interceptions and a passer rating of 105.2 — good for sixth-best in the league. But Jon Gruden has never been known to be patient with his quarterbacks at the best of times, which Sunday wasn’t. Carr completed 15 of 27 passes for 127 yards and an interception before Gruden pulled him in favor of Mike Glennon, who fumbled on two of his first three snaps. Glennon wasn’t much better in the 34-3 loss to a Jets team that suddenly has come alive, and if Gruden can’t get things set on offense, the Raiders will go from possible playoff contender to immediate afterthought in a big hurry.
11. Tennessee Titans
(6-5. Last week: 15)
Another week, another decisive performance from Ryan Tannehill. Against the Jaguars in a 42-20 blowout win, Tannehill became the first Titans quarterback to throw two touchdown passes and run for two touchdowns in the same game since Steve McNair in 2001. And after he completed 14 of 18 passes for 259 yards and those two touchdowns, Tannehill became the NFL’s passer rating leader (114.9) among quarterbacks who have started at least five games this season. At this point, it seems a fait accompli that the Titans will look to make him their franchise quarterback in 2020 and beyond. The Titans are 4-1 in Tannehill’s starts, which has put them firmly in the AFC South race, continuing one of the more remarkable rebound stories in the NFL in recent years.
10. Kansas City Chiefs
(7-4. Week 12 Bye. Last week: 8)
Are we to take the Chiefs’ defense seriously after Kansas City’s 24-17 win over the Chargers in Week 11? Frank Clark had his best game of the season with five quarterback pressures that led to a strip-sack, a Derrick Nnadi interception and three incompletions. A defense that had six interceptions through the first 10 weeks of the season recorded four against Philip Rivers, and it was the defense that — perhaps for the first time in the Patrick Mahomes era — took over when Mahomes was mostly ineffective. It may be that the Chiefs simply took advantage of the Chargers offensive line and a quarterback who’s been all too eager to give the ball up. But if this defense is able to keep it up — starting with their Dec. 1 game against the Raiders — this becomes a very dangerous team, especially since Mahomes is unlikely to struggle as he did in that game.
9. Houston Texans
(7-4. Last week: 13)
One of the things you want to see from a franchise quarterback is the ability to recover from a really bad game and keep the good play going after that. Deshaun Watson had this opportunity after his disaster against the Ravens in Week 11, and he took advantage. Following a game in which he was frustrated by the Ravens’ new-look defense with 18 completions in 29 attempts for 169 yards, no touchdowns, one interception and six sacks, Watson completed 19 of 30 passes for 298 yards, two touchdowns and one pick in a 20-17 win over Indianapolis that put Houston in sole possession of first place in the AFC South. Watson riddled the Colts’ secondary with deep shots to DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller. Perhaps even more importantly for the Texans’ postseason prospects, a secondary that has been a liability most of the season did a great job shutting down Jacoby Brissett and the Colts’ passing game.
8. Green Bay Packers
(8-3. Last week: 5)
Packers running backs Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams came into Week 12 with 20 scrimmage touchdowns, more than any duo in the NFL. The 49ers came into Sunday night’s game against the Pack with their run defense as its one obvious vulnerability on that side of the ball. Jones and Williams combined for 24 carries and 83 of Green Bay’s 198 net yards — not that it mattered in a 37-8 embarrassment for Matt LaFleur’s team. Aaron Rodgers completed 20 of 33 passes for 104 yards and a touchdown against the 49ers; his 3.15 yards per attempt total was a career low when attempting over 12 passes in a game. Pressured mercilessly by Nick Bosa and his buddies, Rodgers was sacked five times and hit 10 more. This was as severe a repudiation as a one-loss team could hand to a formerly two-loss team, and though the Packers are still a solid team against any team that isn’t from California and doesn’t have a Bosa brother on its roster (Rodgers had a similar stinker against Joey Bosa and the Chargers in Week 9), but this loss, and the degree to which the Packers were punked on both sides of the ball has to pump the brakes on any talk of Super Bowl contention.
7. Minnesota Vikings
(8-3. Week 12 Bye. Last week: 7)
Last week, the Vikings became the first team over the past five seasons to come back from a first-half deficit of at least 20-0 to win. Other teams in that time period in similar circumstances went 0-99. The halftime adjustment to a no-huddle offense was just the trick against the Broncos and their variable coverage and pressure looks, and it was a great coaching job by offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski. Stefanski has also introduced boot-action into the Vikings’ offense at a league-high rate, to Kirk Cousins’ extreme benefit — per Sports Info Solutions, Cousins has attempted an NFL-high 43 boot-action throws this season (Russell Wilson ranks second with 32) with 29 completions for 495 yards, seven of his 21 touchdown passes and one interception. Boot-action has done several things to improve Cousins’ game — it takes him out of pressure between the tackles, it reduces the field to make his reads easier and more consistent, and it allows for shot plays downfield as coverages break to deal with a running quarterback. Stefanski is calling his best games at a crucial point in the season, and he’s a primary reason the Vikings must be taken seriously down the stretch.
6. Buffalo Bills
(8-3. Last week: 9)
The big news in Buffalo’s 20-3 win over the Broncos was Frank Gore’s 65 rushing yards, which moved him to 15,289 yards for his career, moving him to third in NFL history behind only Emmitt Smith and Walter Payton. Rookie Devin Singletary contributed 106 yards on 21 carries, quarterback Josh Allen threw two touchdown passes, and Buffalo’s defense overwhelmed Denver quarterback Brandon Allen. The Broncos had just three drives that went into Buffalo territory, and their five final drives were all three-and-outs for a total of two yards. Allen had just four yards passing in the first half. Are the Bills the most under-the-radar eight-win team through 12 weeks of an NFL season in recent memory? It’s starting to look that way.
5. New Orleans Saints
(9-2. Last week: 3)
The Saints kept up with the Seahawks and just behind the 49ers in an NFC race that seems increasingly low on oxygen at the top. It took more than one might expect for New Orleans to beat the Panthers, 37-34, in a last-second thriller. Carolina overcame a 13-point deficit in the fourth quarter with a 4-yard Christian McCaffrey run and a 2-yard touchdown pass from Kyle Allen to D.J. Moore (who also caught passes of 51 and 52 yards) to tie the game, but the Panthers’ inability to push it in from the Saints’ 3-yard line on their final drive, and Joey Slye’s missed field goal with 2:00 left in the game, set things up for New Orleans’ definitive drive. That Drew Brees’ team had the better kicker in Will Lutz was the deciding factor in a game that was messier than Sean Payton wanted it to be. Payton’s team finished with 12 penalties for 123 yards, including a highly ironic pass-interference call, and a pass defense that was vulnerable without cornerback Marshon Lattimore (hamstring) allowed Allen to look like a franchise quarterback. The Saints have little time to recover from this one, as they play in Atlanta on Thanksgiving.
4. Seattle Seahawks
(9-2. Last week: 6)
The Seahawks’ win over the Eagles on Sunday resembled the Legion of Boom days more than most anything Russell Wilson has accomplished this season. Though he did connect with receiver Malik Turner on a ridiculous 33-yard flea-flicker touchdown, Wilson was uncharacteristically shut down by Philly’s normally vulnerable secondary, completing 13 of 25 passes for 200 yards, that one touchdown, and his third interception of the year. It was Seattle’s defense, with its ability to harass Carson Wentz and shut down the Eagles’ limited receivers, who really defined this game — even without the injured Jadeveon Clowney. Also, 2018 first-round pick (and near-bust based on overall performance) Rashaad Penny gained a career-high 128 yards on the ground. Another unusual wrinkle: The team known for the most prominent home-field advantage in the NFL is one of two remaining undefeated road teams, and the Seahawks’ 6-0 away record beats San Francisco’s by one game.
3. New England Patriots
(10-1. Last week: 4)
Coming into Dallas’ tussle with the Patriots on Sunday afternoon, Dak Prescott was the NFL’s most prolific quarterback against man coverage, with 70 completions in 111 attempts for 1,033 yards, nine touchdowns and two interceptions. Then, the Patriots showed Prescott the difference between enjoying ice cream and working in an ice cream factory. New England’s lockdown man coverage, especially when cornerback Stephon Gilmore was involved, was far too much for Prescott and his targets to handle. Amari Cooper, primarily Gilmore’s responsibility, was held without a catch for the first time as a Cowboy, and Prescott managed just 19 completions in 33 attempts for 212 yards, no touchdowns and one interception. The weather played a role — rain limited Tom Brady’s efficiency as well — but if you’re still discounting this secondary due to inferior opponents, Sunday’s performance should put a sock in that.
2. San Francisco 49ers
(10-1. Last week: 2)
After an overtime loss to the Seahawks in Week 10, and a near-stumble against the Cardinals in Week 11, the 49ers were starting to look mortal. But any serious questions about the vulnerability of the NFC’s best team went straight out the window after Sunday night’s 37-8 demolition of the Packers. When Aaron Rodgers could get away from San Francisco’s furious pass rush (which wasn’t often), San Francisco’s airtight secondary shut down his receivers and made consistent offensive performance nearly impossible. And though Kyle Shanahan’s offense has been a bit limited in the run game over the past three games, Jimmy Garoppolo has taken the passing game to a new level, especially with the return of tight end George Kittle, who caught six passes on six targets for 129 yards and a touchdown against Green Bay’s overwhelmed defense. This was a team in need of an undisputed win, and boy, did it get one.
1. Baltimore Ravens
(9-2. Last week: 1)
So, this worked out pretty well. The Ravens made the defending NFC Champion Rams look like a high-school team on Monday Night Football in a 45-6 blowout, and Lamar Jackson continued a quarterback season the likes of which we’ve never seen before. In this game alone, Jackson became the first player in NFL history with:
3,000 passing yards and 1,500 rushing yards in his first two seasons;
50 rushing yards and four passing touchdowns in consecutive games; and
Five passing touchdowns in his Monday Night Football debut.
The Ravens scored touchdowns on each of their first six drives. They successfully converted all three of their fourth-down tries. They were six of seven in the red zone, and three-for-three in goal-to-go situations. Jackson threw those five touchdown passes on just 20 attempts. The Ravens racked up 480 total yards to the Rams’ 221, and ran 74 plays to the Rams’ 48.
If you want to know how complete this domination was, consider this: Per NextGen Stats, the Ravens ran right at Aaron Donald 13 times, gaining 87 yards and scoring a touchdown. Yes, they double-teamed him a ton, but Donald’s used to that. When you turn the NFL’s best defensive lineman into an accessory after the fact, you are indeed on a roll. With all due respect to the 49ers, their entire season, and what they just did to the Packers, there is no better or more dangerous team than the Ravens right now. If the 49ers want to contest that, they have the perfect opportunity this upcoming Sunday.
Touchdown Wire editor Doug Farrar has also covered football for Yahoo! Sports, Sports Illustrated, Bleacher Report, the Washington Post, and Football Outsiders. His first book, “The Genius of Desperation,” a schematic history of professional football, was published by Triumph Books in 2018 and won the Professional Football Researchers Association’s Nelson Ross Award for “Outstanding recent achievement in pro football research and historiography.”
