If you’re coming here looking for picks, that’s not what this is. We’ll get to those later in the week.
This right here is an early betting preview of the upcoming action in the NFL, with a first impression of each game and betting line, with a few trends and hints sprinkled in. Sometimes, bettors can overthink things and talk themselves out of making the right pick. So these are just baseline thoughts before we take a deeper dive into the numbers later in the week.
Spreads and over/under numbers are from BetMGM and likely to change after this is published.
1
Bills at Patriots (+5) (O/U: 43.5)
Bills: 8-3 (5-6 ATS, 3-8 O/U)
Patriots: 6-5 (6-4-1 ATS, 5-6 O/U)
The Bills’s point margin in the last four games is exactly +5, but they’re at least averaging over 30 in their last three. So the question for me is whether the Pats can keep up.
2
Commanders at Giants (+2.5) (O/U: 40.5)
Commanders: 7-5 (7-4-1 ATS, 4-8 O/U)
Giants: 7-4 (8-3 ATS, 3-8 O/U)
The Giants have lost three of their last four games, but Washington is just the type of team tend to beat. One that, like them, doesn’t score a lot of points.
3
Jets at Vikings (-3) (O/U: 45.5)
Jets: 7-4 (7-4 ATS, 4-7 O/U)
Vikings: 9-2 (5-5-1 ATS, 5-6 O/U)
Both teams are coming off of 30-point games, which probably boosts the point total line. But it’s still Mike White quarterbacking for the Jets, who have a good defense themselves.
4
Titans at Eagles (-5.5) (O/U: 44.5)
Titans: 7-4 (8-3 ATS, 3-8 O/U)
Eagles: 10-1 (6-5 ATS, 7-4 O/U)
The Eagles just broke a three-game streak of losing against the spread, and they barely did that against Green Bay. Tennessee is just the type of team that could give them issues.
5
Jaguars at Lions (-1) (O/U: 51.5)
Jaguars: 4-7 (4-7 ATS, 5-6 O/U)
Lions: 4-7 (7-3-1 ATS, 6-5 O/U)
Detroit’s record ATS says take the Lions here, but Trevor Lawrence might’ve had a breakthrough last week against the Ravens.
6
Broncos at Ravens (-8) (O/U: 38.5)
Broncos: 3-8 (3-8 ATS, 1-10 O/U)
Ravens: 7-4 (5-6 ATS, 4-7 O/U)
Baltimore hasn’t covered a spread larger than 2.5 points since Week 1. I know they’re playing the Broncos, but the under might really be the play here.
7
Steelers at Falcons (-1.5) (O/U: 42)
Steelers: 4-7 (5-5-1 ATS, 5-6 O/U)
Falcons: 5-7 (7-4-1 ATS, 6-6 O/U)
Pittsburgh is showing improvement just as the Falcons are beginning to regress. The Steelers have covered in four of their last six games.
8
Packers at Bears (+3) (O/U: 42.5)
Packers: 4-8 (4-8 ATS, 6-6 O/U)
Bears: 3-9 (4-7-1 ATS, 8-4 O/U)
There’s so much uncertainty around this game right now. I wouldn’t bet before knowing whether Aaron Rodgers and Justin Fields are playing. If the assumption is that both are out, this under feels safe.
9
Browns at Texans (+7) (O/U: 46.5)
Browns: 4-7 (5-6 ATS, 7-4 O/U)
Texans: 1-9-1 (4-6-1 ATS, 4-7 O/U)
There is absolutely no telling how Deshaun Watson will look in his first action in two years. I suspect, with a strong run game, he won’t have to be exceptional for Cleveland to cover a touchdown.
10
Seahawks at Rams (+7) (O/U: 41)
Seahawks: 6-5 (6-5 ATS, 6-5 O/U)
Rams: 3-8 (2-8-1 ATS, 4-7 O/U)
As long as the Rams are rolling Bryce Perkins out at quarterback, you have to wonder how many points they can realistically score. Well, we had to wonder that before Perkins was playing too.
11
Dolphins at 49ers (-3.5) (O/U: 46.5)
Dolphins: 8-3 (5-5-1 ATS, 5-6 O/U)
49ers: 7-4 (6-5 ATS, 4-7 O/U)
I’m not so much surprised that the Niners are home favorites as much as I’m shocked that it’s by more than a couple points. Their defensive strength is up front, so it’s hard to expect complete domination against this explosive Miami offense.
12
Chiefs at Bengals (+2.5) (O/U: 52.5)
Chiefs: 9-2 (5-6 ATS, 5-6 O/U)
Bengals: 7-4 (8-3 ATS, 4-7 O/U)
The Chiefs are winning with relative ease, but they haven’t been as explosive as you might think. Three of their last four games have fallen under. But with Ja’Marr Chase back for Cincy, maybe they’re pushed to do more.
13
Chargers at Raiders (+2) (O/U: 50.5)
Chargers: 6-5 (6-4-1 ATS, 6-5 O/U)
Raiders: 4-7 (5-6 ATS, 7-4 O/U)
These teams combined for 43 points when they met in Week 1 and the Chargers won by five. And neither has improved so much that I think this result ends much different.
14
Colts at Cowboys (-9.5) (O/U: 43.5)
Colts: 4-7-1 (5-7 ATS, 3-9 O/U)
Cowboys: 8-3 (7-4 ATS, 4-7 O/U)
Even as three of Dallas’ last four games have hit the over, you have to hammer the under on this one. Because Indy’s offense won’t help boost the total the way those other teams did.
15
Saints at Buccaneers (-3.5) (O/U: 40.5)
Saints: 4-8 (4-8 ATS, 6-6 O/U)
Buccaneers: 5-6 (3-7-1 ATS, 2-9 O/U)
This is just a pitiful Monday night matchup, but I suppose their first meeting is a good template. The score was 3-3 going into the fourth quarter of that game. That’s what you can expect from these teams.
