Over their past four games, the Ravens went from 4-2 to 8-2 with victories over the Seahawks, Patriots and Texans — opponents with a current won-loss record of 23-7. Since the acquisition of cornerback Marcus Peters in a trade with the Rams on Oct. 15, Baltimore has not only ranked first in Football Outsiders’ opponent-adjusted metrics in offensive efficiency, but defensive efficiency as well.
Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson currently ranks fourth in the NFL in passer rating and 10th in rushing yards. Sunday’s 41-7 thrashing of the Texans was the most obvious example of a Baltimore’s vast improvement in all facets of the game, and the Ravens must be considered to be the league’s best team at this point in time.
The Packers, Vikings, Saints and Seahawks match the Ravens’ eight-win total, but could you say that you’d definitively take any of those teams over John Harbaugh’s squad? The Patriots and 49ers have nine wins this season, but Baltimore already handed New England its only loss in authoritative fashion, and the 49ers, who have looked vulnerable on defense over the past two weeks, will get their shot on Dec. 1.
Until then, and as the Ravens continue to separate themselves from the pack, the NFL is their world, and everyone else is just paying rent.
32. Cincinnati Bengals
(0-10. Last week: 32)
In being mathematically eliminated from the playoff contention on Sunday, the Bengals made the league’s earliest such exit since the 2002 season — when it also happened to the Bengals. So, at least Zac Taylor’s team can say that it’s matching franchise history in one category. That distant Bengals team fired head coach Dick LeBeau, hired Marvin Lewis and selected Carson Palmer with the first overall pick of the 2003 draft. We have no clue what the new Bengals are going to do next season, but if they think Ryan Finley is the answer at quarterback, they may want to think again. Finley looked decent in the preseason against stock defenses, but against the Ravens and Raiders as Andy Dalton’s replacement, he’s completed 47.5% of his passes and averaged 4.6 yards per attempt. That’s a remarkable combination of inaccuracy and conservatism. There should also be a re-do at defensive coordinator, where Lou Anarumo presides over a unit that makes every opposing quarterback look like an unholy combination of Joe Montana and Steve Young. The Bengals likely will have the first pick in the 2020 draft, and they’d better be smart with it. Cincinnati rebounded to finish 8-8 in 2003 after a 2-14 campaign the year before.
31. Washington Redskins
(1-9. Last week: 31)
You’ll have to forgive the Redskins’ social media person for being this excited about a touchdown in what turned out to be a 34-17 loss to the Jets.
Before this 45-yard screen pass from Dwayne Haskins to running back Derrius Guice in the fourth quarter, Washington hadn’t scored a touchdown since the third quarter of its Week 6 win over the Dolphins. That’s 16 consecutive quarters — the equivalent of four games — without a touchdown. That’s the longest such streak for any NFL team since the 2000 Ravens went 21 straight quarters, and it has transpired under the watch of interim head coach Bill Callahan, put in place after Jay Gruden was fired following a Week 5 loss to the Patriots. Lost in all this offensive malaise is defensive coordinator Greg Manusky, who must be wearing a Teflon suit. You may remember that the 2000 Ravens won the Super Bowl on the backs of an all-time defense, which the Redskins definitely do not have. Manusky’s crew was busy giving up 400 net yards to the mediocre Jets and letting Sam Darnold throw a career-high four touchdown passes. If there’s an NFL team more in need of blowing everything up and starting over, I can’t think of it.
This video pretty much sums it up.
30. New York Giants
(2-8. Week 11 Bye. Last week: 30)
A Week 11 bye wasn’t going to erase the concerns about Giants franchise running back Saquon Barkley, whose productivity hit a new low against the Jets in Week 10. Barkley ran the ball 13 times for just one yard, one week after gaining just 28 yards on 14 carries against the Cowboys. Not a good trend for a guy who’s supposed to be the face of your offense. Especially against the Jets, Barkley was running hesitantly behind an ineffective offensive line — unable to break anything against a defense that stacked the box, seemingly unafraid of the passing game. If Barkley is to reverse this against Chicago’s defense on Sunday, it will be up to quarterback Daniel Jones and his receivers to force Chuck Pagano’s fronts to play the Giants honestly. Barkley has been a factor in the passing game, but without his efforts on the ground, Big Blue has little chance to end its six-game losing streak.
29. Miami Dolphins
(2-8. Last week: 26)
Well, it was a nice two-week stretch for the Dolphins, in which they got off the schneid for the season, beat the Jets and Colts, silenced tanking accusations and lowered their place in the 2020 draft order. On Sunday, the Bills brought Brian Flores’ team back to reality by handing the Dolphins a 37-20 loss in which all areas of Miami’s undermanned roster were exposed. Bills quarterback Josh Allen was able to throw to his targets with relative impunity against coverages that didn’t always add up, Miami quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick was sacked seven times, and Fitzpatrick threw 45 passes without a single touchdown. The Dolphins offense put just 23 rushing yards up against Buffalo’s vicious fronts, and were it not for a couple of fourth-quarter option plays in which running back Kalen Ballage once kept the ball off the direct snap for seven yards on his own, and once handed to receiver Jakeem Grant for a seven-yard touchdown, the rushing attack would have been non-existent. Outside of Grant’s 101-yard kick return, and DeVante Parker’s career-high 135 receiving yards, there wasn’t much else to discuss. Flores seems like the right guy to oversee Miami’s inevitable rebuild, but it’s worth remembering how far this team has to go before it will be competitive in a serious sense.
28. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
(3-7. Last week: 24)
Football 101: It’s difficult to win games when your quarterback can’t stop throwing interceptions, and that’s been Jameis Winston’s problem all season. With his four picks in Tampa Bay’s 34-17 loss to the Saints, Winston matched his career high of 18 interceptions in a season from 2016. Of course, it took Winston 16 full games to do it back then, as opposed to 10 games this time around. Maybe he’s not the right quarterback for Bruce Arians’ “No risk-it, no biscuit” philosophy. Perhaps more distressing was what wideout Mike Evans said after the loss.
“They did the exact same coverages they did last time they played us — a lot of two-man and Cover-2, almost every single snap,” Tampa Bay’s top receiver said of New Orleans’ defense. The lack of ability to adjust has more to do with Winston than it does with Arians, who has always understood how to test defenses with interesting combinations of deep routes to the front side and easy reads to the back side. But it’s difficult to do any of that when your quarterback is under constant duress from heavy blitz percentages, and he’s spraying the ball all over the field. Arians has been fairly resolute regarding the idea that not all of Winston’s interceptions are his fault, and this is absolutely true. O.J. Howard’s weird behind-the-back fumble led to one pick, and Mike Evans’ inability to box out Saints safety P.J. Williams in the end zone led to another. But enough of Winston’s mistakes are clearly his to make you wonder if this is ever going to work.
27. New York Jets
(3-7. Last week: 29)
The Jets have now rolled off two straight wins after starting the season 1-7 and bottoming out in a Week 9 loss to the Dolphins. Credit must be given to Sam Darnold, who amassed five touchdowns to just one interception in that two-week stretch and looked especially effective when moving outside the pocket against the Redskins’ befuddled defense in Sunday’s 34-17 victory. Credit also must be given to safety Jamal Adams, who is playing out of his mind this season, seemingly unaffected by the impasse he had with the team earlier in the season. Adams has been stellar as a blitzer in Gregg Williams’ system, putting up a career-high three sacks on Sunday. With six on the season, he’s well on the pace to break the single-season mark for quarterback takedowns by a true safety — eight by Arizona’s Adrian Wilson in 2005. Adams wants to be paid like the NFL’s best at his position, and the Jets would be smart to do it, because a defensive player of his effectiveness and versatility — he’s just as good in intermediate and deep coverage as he is as a box blitzer — doesn’t come around too often.
26. Cleveland Browns
(4-6. Last week: 27)
The Browns probably saved their season in a competitive sense with that 21-7 Thursday night win over the Steelers, but boy, did it come at a price. Defensive end Myles Garrett was suspended indefinitely — at least through the end of this season — after ripping Steelers quarterback Mason Rudolph’s helmet off his head and whacking him over the head with it. Defensive lineman Larry Ogunjobi also was suspended a game for his role in the fracas. Earlier in the game, safety Damarious Randall delivered a helmet-to-helmet hit on rookie receiver Diontae Johnson that had Johnson bleeding from his right ear. The Browns lead the league in penalties and ejections, and though this was Garrett’s most obvious extracurricular infraction, it wasn’t his first.
One would prefer to shy away from such overarching statements, but the Browns have a culture problem, and it doesn’t appear that anyone in the building is capable of fixing it.
25. Denver Broncos
(3-7. Last week: 25)
Whatever you think about the prospects for the 2019 Broncos, first-year head coach Vic Fangio is one of the brightest defensive minds of this era, and he showed why in the first half of Sunday’s game against the Vikings. Denver ran up a 20-0 first-half lead as Fangio’s defense showed all kinds of different coverage and pressure looks at Kirk Cousins, throwing the Minnesota quarterback way off his game. At the same time, Broncos quarterback Brandon Allen was able to take advantage of Minnesota’s vulnerable secondary to a degree. But when the Vikings went no-huddle in the second half and forced Denver into base personnel situations, the picture cleared for Cousins, and Minnesota scored touchdowns on all four of its drives in the third and fourth quarter. What the Broncos can take away from this loss, and other close losses this season, is that they have a capable head coach, a strong defensive vision, and two offensive stars in wide receiver Courtland Sutton and running back Phillip Lindsay. It isn’t going to be enough for a winning record this season, especially with yet another limited quarterback in a seemingly endless string of them since Peyton Manning retired, but there are arrows pointing up in the Mile High City.
24. Atlanta Falcons
(3-7. Last week: 28)
Give Falcons head coach Dan Quinn credit for doing all he could to improve a defense that was dragging his team down by the neck. Before the team’s Week 9 bye, Atlanta was 1-7, ranking 28th in the NFL in points allowed and 25th in total touchdowns allowed. The Falcons also were dead last in interceptions, and they had just eight sacks in eight games.
In an unusual twist, Quinn assigned linebackers coach Jeff Ulbrich to call first- and second-down defense, and assistant head coach/defensive backs coach Raheem Morris to call third-down defense. It’s worked like a charm. Over their past two games, the Falcons haven’t allowed a touchdown, they’ve picked off four passes, added 11 sacks to their team total, and they’re 2-0 with road wins against the Saints and Panthers. Atlanta’s 29-3 win over Carolina on Sunday won’t likely be enough to get Quinn’s team to the postseason, but it may save his job — and if this sticks, rightfully so. Panthers quarterback Kyle Allen was an easier out for this defense than Drew Brees was the previous week, but this defense looked dominant against both quarterbacks. Jameis Winston, who just threw four picks and took two sacks in a loss to New Orleans, had better watch out next Sunday.
23. Los Angeles Chargers
(4-7. Last week: 22)
For the second consecutive week in a prime time game, the Chargers had a credible chance to win a crucial game against a divisional opponent, and for the second straight time, Philip Rivers literally threw his team’s opportunities away with head-scratching interceptions, especially late in the game. This heave to Chiefs cornerback Rashad Fenton with 4:20 left in the game was a dagger, as the Chargers were down, 24-17, but had a legitimate chance to drive down the field with smarter throws from a quarterback whose throwing motion over the past few games suggests either an injury or an alternate career.
The following interception to safety Daniel Sorenson with 24 seconds left was the real killer, as it ended any chance to win. Rivers finished the game with four interceptions, including the two that ended his team’s last two drives.
This performance came one week after Rivers’ three-pick performance against the Raiders in a 26-24 loss that included one of the worst two-minute sequences by a quarterback in recent history. It makes one wonder if the Chargers need to think about other options in 2020 — when, based on his current contractual situation, Rivers will be a free agent.
22. Detroit Lions
(3-6-1. Last week: 23)
The Lions faced an interesting question in Sunday’s game against the Cowboys. Would they stick with their primary man coverages against a Dallas passing offense that has been highly effective against that kind of tight coverage this season? Only Seattle’s Russell Wilson has a higher passer rating this season against man coverage than Dak Prescott’s 110.5. So in the end, it was fairly predictable that a defense that wants to play man coverage most of the time and isn’t very good at it — Detroit has allowed seven touchdown passes to just one interception in man coverage this season — would find itself at Prescott’s mercy. Dallas’ quarterback completed 29 of 46 passes for 444 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions in a 35-27 win. Detroit’s offense couldn’t quite keep up, though backup Jeff Driskel played decently in place of Matthew Stafford, who could miss several weeks with a back injury. What becomes apparent is that Detroit’s desire to align itself with a specific defensive philosophy, and the abilities of their players to execute that philosophy, are at a distinct impasse.
21. Chicago Bears
(4-6. Last week: 21)
It’s entirely possible that Mitchell Trubisky had a hip injury that led Bears coach Matt Nagy to take his starting quarterback out of Sunday night’s game against the Rams late in the fourth quarter in favor of Chase Daniel. It’s also entirely possible that Nagy had seen Trubisky throw enough off-target balls, and was desperate to see a passing game that was at least functional. Trubisky completed 24 of 43 passes for 190 yards, one touchdown and one interception in a 17-7 loss. A 4.4 yards-per-attempt average isn’t ever going to get it done, and Trubisky was unable to hit his receivers even when he wasn’t pressured.
That said, Nagy, as the offensive play-caller, bears some responsibility in all this. The Bears have steadfastly refused to let Trubisky do the two things he’s good at this season — designed runs and boot-action throws. Per Sports Info Solutions, Trubisky has completed eight of nine passes for 111 yards and 85 air yards when running boot-action — which cuts the field in half for the quarterback and makes his reads easier. Kirk Cousins came into Week 11 with the NFL’s most boot-action attempts (41), and it’s inexcusable that Nagy and his staff are trying to make Trubisky a pocket passer when he’s anything but.
20. Jacksonville Jaguars
(4-6. Last week: 20)
Doug Marrone’s decision to replace rookie Gardner Minshew with veteran Nick Foles when Foles was fully recovered from the collarbone injury that had him out since Week 1 and gave Minshew an unexpected chance to shine was clearly based on the idea that the Jaguars had not really seen the quarterback they signed to a four-year, $88 million contract in the offseason. Perhaps it’s a matter of blowing the rust off, as Foles was average in a 33-13 loss to the Colts in which he completed 33 of 47 passes for 296 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Given Minshew’s struggles when his first read is closed, Marrone made the right call in the short term. A far more pressing issue for the franchise is a defense that allowed the Colts to have two 100-yard rushers in a single game (Marlon Mack, Jonathan Williams) for the first time since 1985.
19. Arizona Cardinals
(3-7-1. Last week: 18)
Whatever Kyler Murray has on the 49ers’ defense, he should bottle it and sell it to other teams. The Cardinals lost a close one in Santa Clara on Sunday, falling 36-26 to Kyle Shanahan’s team after Jimmy Garoppolo connected with running back Jeff Wilson Jr. on a 25-yard touchdown pass with 31 seconds left in the game. The subsequent defensive touchdown was in response to Arizona’s desperate lateral derby as time expired, but let’s get back to Murray against his division opponent. This season, all other quarterbacks facing the 49ers have completed 56.8% of their passes for 165.5 yards per game, six touchdown passes to 11 interceptions, and a passer rating of 62.0. Murray is the only quarterback to post a passer rating over 100 against this defense, and he’s done it twice — once in a 28-25 Week 9 loss, and in this game, when he completed 24 of 33 passes for 150 yards, two touchdowns and no picks. In those two games, Murray has a 71.9% completion rate, 195.5 yards per game, four touchdown passes and no interceptions, and a passer rating of 114.0. He also has the only rushing touchdown by a quarterback against San Francisco this season. The Cardinals have experienced some agonizingly close losses this season, but they’re on the right track, and Murray is a primary reason why. Not bad for a rookie.
18. Los Angeles Rams
(6-4. Last week: 18)
Incredibly, the Rams came into their Sunday night game against the Bears without having scored an offensive touchdown in 19 straight drives. Things didn’t get any better on their first drive, when Todd Gurley fumbled on his team’s first play from scrimmage. Jared Goff ended the Rams’ second drive with a truly awful interception to linebacker Roquan Smith on a sideline throw. Sean McVay’s offense finally broke the streak on their fifth drive of the evening, when Gurley scored on a 1-yard touchdown run. The Rams kept their postseason hopes alive with a 17-7 win, but not all is well with that offense. Per Next Gen Stats, Jared Goff was pressured on just one of his 18 dropbacks, but he was able to complete just 11 passes in 18 attempts for 173 yards, no touchdowns, that really bad pick, and a couple of decent throws called back by penalties. The heat map shows a quarterback who can’t carry the offense on his back, and the dropback total reveals a coaching staff well aware of that fact.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers
(5-5. Last week: 17)
Though Mason Rudolph would have preferred not to have Myles Garrett whack him upside the head with his own helmet last Thursday night, the net positive from the incident is that at least we weren’t talking about Rudolph’s four-interception performance in a 21-7 loss to the Browns. Rudolph came into this game with just four picks, but everything fell apart when he was asked to make tight-window throws downfield. At this point in his career, Rudolph is a late processor — he will put his receivers in disadvantageous situations because he doesn’t see what defenses are doing in time to take advantage of it. It’s a common problem among young quarterbacks — you could say the same thing of Jared Goff — but until and unless Rudolph is able to speed up his internal clock, the Steelers will continue to struggle with serious inconsistencies in the passing game.
16. Carolina Panthers
(5-5. Last week: 10)
The Panthers were 4-2 ahead of their Week 7 bye, but they’ve lost three of four since, and Sunday’s 29-3 loss to the Falcons was singularly embarrassing. Quarterback Kyle Allen ran into a buzzsaw unseen since his no-touchdown, three-pick, seven-sack performance against San Francisco on Oct. 27, and given the quality of the defense he was facing this time around, this no-touchdown, four-pick, five-sack outing was even worse. Tight end Greg Olsen called it “a comedy of terrible football,” and he wasn’t far off. Without the efforts of Christian McCaffrey, who caught 11 passes for 121 yards and added 70 rushing yards on 14 carries, this offense with Allen would be an even tougher watch. It’s starting to look as if Allen is more of a work in progress than originally imagined, and the Panthers don’t have enough parts around him to make than transition any easier.
15. Tennessee Titans
(5-5. Week 11 Bye. Last week: 16)
The Titans have an interesting decision to make at the quarterback position, and one assumes general manager Jon Robinson thought about it a bit during his team’s bye week. The Marcus Mariota era is clearly over, as Mariota was benched a few weeks back, and he becomes a free agent at the start of the 2020 league year. But what to do with Ryan Tannehill, who was maddeningly inconsistent through five years in Miami, but has played pretty well in four games as a starter for this team? From Weeks 7-10, Tannehill ranks fourth in the NFL in yards per attempt at 8.5, he’s tied for third with eight touchdown passes and he has just three interceptions. He ranks eighth in passing yards with 1,017, and he’s fifth in passer rating at 107.5. That’s not to say Tannehill is ready for a big-time contract and a multiyear commitment. But he clearly has become smarter and less frenetic in the pocket, and he’s helping his receivers make plays in ways Mariota generally struggled to. The Titans are 3-1 in Tannehill’s starts. At the very least, Tannehill has proven that he can be a valuable bridge quarterback, and with a 2019 cap hit of $1,875,000, that’s as good a situation as you can expect for a franchise that appeared to be in quarterback purgatory.
14. Philadelphia Eagles
(5-5. Last week: 15)
Forget Carson Wentz or anybody else; right tackle Lane Johnson might be the Eagles’ most valuable player. When Johnson was in the game against the Patriots on Sunday, Philadelphia’s offense scored all 10 points it was to score on the day, including a touchdown at the end of a mammoth 95-yard drive that took 9:33 off the clock. But after Johnson left with a head injury in the second quarter and was replaced with Halapoulivaati Vaitai, the Eagles’ recurring issues — receivers who struggle to gain separation and an inconsistent running game — came up to bite them against a New England defense that was quite ready to shut things down. Wentz availed himself to a degree in the 17-10 loss with his team’s final two drives, in which the Eagles at least threatened to tie the game. But in the end, Wentz was pressured frequently and inaccurate just as often, and Doug Pederson was left without his bag of tricks because of limited personnel and limited opportunities.
13. Houston Texans
(6-4. Last week: 8)
Heading into Sunday’s matchup between the Texans and Ravens, the obvious story was the showcasing of Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson, two of the league’s most impressive young quarterbacks and legitimate contenders for the NFL MVP award. Problem was, only Jackson showed up. Watson was overwhelmed by a Baltimore defense that has taken on an entirely different cast in the last month — he completed 18 of 29 passes for 169 yards, no touchdowns and one interception in a 41-7 beatdown. Not that this was all Watson’s fault — the Texans were absolutely robbed on an inexcusable non-call for pass interference against Baltimore cornerback Marlon Humphrey, and Watson was sacked six times and hit 10 more times behind an offensive line that was completely unprepared for the Ravens’ voluminous blitz packages. Outside of a 41-yard touchdown run from Carlos Hyde, the Texans didn’t do much on the ground. Conversely, Houston’s defense had no answers for Jackson. This was a litmus test for the Texans, so that they could see whether they were ready to hang with the hottest team in the NFL. The answer was definitive, and not at all positive.
12. Indianapolis Colts
(6-4. Last week: 14)
Remember when Jacoby Brissett threw 14 touchdown passes and just three interceptions in the first nine weeks of the season, and yet the overwhelming narrative was that he was just a widget between Andrew Luck and the Colts’ next franchise quarterback? After two games with Brissett out due to an MCL injury, and Brian Hoyer vomiting the ball all over the field, Colts fans might want to take a closer look at the starting quarterback they do have. Against the Jaguars in a 33-13 win, Brissett wasn’t dominant by any means — he completed 15 of 24 passes for 148 yards, one touchdown and one interception — but he didn’t need to be dominant, either. Indy got 100-yard rushing performances from both Jonathan Williams and Marlon Mack (who suffered a fractured hand in the game), Brissett ran for a 5-yard touchdown, and the Colts enjoyed the greatest touchdown celebration for a play that didn’t turn out to be a touchdown in NFL history: The Quenton Nelson Keg Stand!
The All-Pro guard came up just short of his own rushing touchdown, but this was primo stuff.
“I almost cried, because that celebration was pretty cool,” Brissett said after the game. “I hope that still can be nominated as one of the best celebrations, because I don’t know how they picked him up.”
We agree, and this game gives the Colts positive momentum as they prepare for the Texans next week in a game that could tilt the balance of power in the AFC South.
11. Dallas Cowboys
(6-4. Last week: 13)
Last week, the Cowboys fell short against the Vikings because head coach Jason Garrett took the ball out of Dak Prescott’s hands late in the game and called two unsuccessful run plays against a defense that hadn’t allowed a rushing first down all evening. This time, Garrett and offensive coordinator Kellen Moore kept the ball where it belongs in this particular iteration of Dallas’ offense — with their franchise quarterback. Prescott shredded Detroit’s man coverage in a 35-27 win, completing 29 of 46 passes for 444 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions. Per NFL Research, Prescott now has four games this season with at least 375 passing yards and two touchdowns, tying him with Joe Montana in 1990 for the most such performances through the first 10 games of a season in NFL history. Only Peyton Manning, who had six such games in 2013, has had more in a full season.
After the game, Moore talked about the specific shift from running back Ezekiel Elliott to Prescott as the fulcrum of this offense.
“At the end of the day, we’ve got the highest-paid runner and a really, really good offensive line, that draws attention,” he said. “Whether it eventually flips or impacts in other ways as we continue to throw it, we’ll keep doing what we do.”
What they do is to succeed when Prescott is their main man.
10. Oakland Raiders
(6-4. Last week: 12)
Another week, another opportunity to praise a Raiders rookie class that looks as strong as any in recent seasons. This time around, it was fourth-round pass-rusher Maxx Crosby who stood out, with four sacks, four tackles for loss, three quarterback hits, and a forced fumble in Oakland’s 17-10 win over the Bengals — a win that has Oakland pressing Kansas City for first place in the AFC West. Derek Carr was great, completing his first 14 attempts, and tight end Darren Waller continued a season in which he appears to be impossible to cover consistently.
Per Josh Dubow of the Associated Press, the Raiders rank first in the NFL in rookie scrimmage yards (1,676), first in rookie touchdowns (14), first in rookie rushing yards (937), first in rookie receptions (73) and first in rookie sacks (10). That the contributions have come from up and down the draft board and don’t include the efforts of injured first-round safety Johnathan Abram, who suffered a season-ending shoulder injury in Week 1, makes it all the more remarkable. General manager Mike Mayock (another rookie) should get serious Executive of the Year consideration, especially if the Raiders make the playoffs for the first time since 2016.
9. Buffalo Bills
(7-3. Last week: 11)
Over his past five games, Bills quarterback Josh Allen has thrown eight touchdown passes and no interceptions. Buffalo is 3-2 in those games, but it’s another indicator that this is an under-the-radar team determined to be taken seriously. Not only was Allen accurate on deep throws in a 37-20 win over the Dolphins in ways he’s struggled to be before, but he’s also gained a command of the offense that could have been called into question in previous stretches. This 40-yard touchdown pass to John Brown was a rocket to exploit a clear hole in zone coverage …
And this 9-yard touchdown pass to Brown in the fourth quarter showed an impressive ability to hit a timing throw into a tight window.
Allen also scored a rushing touchdown, his seventh on the season and the 15th of his two-year career.
The Bills also picked up a season-high seven sacks against Miami’s overwhelmed offensive line, but it’s Allen’s recent development that makes the Bills a tough team to count out any week.
8. Kansas City Chiefs
(7-4. Last week: 9)
Patrick Mahomes’ first-half passer rating of 36.3 on Monday night was the lowest he’s ever put up in the first 30 minutes of an NFL game, as he completed just eight of 15 passes for 63 yards and an interception. He never really shook his way out of it against the Chargers’ defense, finishing the game with 19 completions in 32 attempts for 182 yards and a touchdown along with that pick. Losing Tyreek Hill for most of the game to a hamstring injury didn’t help. Unquestionably, Philip Rivers was the Chiefs’ most effective quarterback, as the Chargers’ star threw four picks in Kansas City’s 24-17 win. The good news for the Chiefs as they align themselves for a postseason run is that their secondary looked more present and aggressive, and pass-rusher Frank Clark had his best game of the season with a sack, three quarterback hits, and all kinds of hurries that were not on the stat sheet, but were just impactful. If Kansas City can win with impressive defense when the offense isn’t clicking, that’s something new in the Mahomes era.
7. Minnesota Vikings
(8-3. Last week: 7)
Well, that was fun. As NFL RedZone’s Scott Hanson pointed out, teams trailing by a score of at least 20-0 over the past five seasons finished those games with an 0-99 record. Leave it to the Vikes to break that trend. Minnesota’s defense, specifically vulnerable against the pass through much of the season, allowed 217 total yards in the first half, while Minnesota’s offense gained just 47. Kirk Cousins was his most reductive self, completing 10 of 11 pass attempts for just 58 yards. But in the second half, the Vikings started looking like the Vikings again, behind an adjustment to a no-huddle offense, as Cousins finished with 319 yards and three touchdowns. Broncos quarterback Brandon Allen experienced a relative shutdown, finishing his day with 17 completions in 39 attempts for 240 yards, one touchdown and one interception. It wasn’t pretty at all, but it was historic in a sloppy way, and it kept the Vikings on pace with the Packers in the race for the NFC North title.
6. Seattle Seahawks
(8-2. Week 11 Bye. Last week: 6)
We’re going to give opposing defenses a little tip here: DO NOT apply man coverage when you’re playing the Seahawks. Just don’t do it. Through the first 10 weeks of the season, per Sports Info Solutions, Russell Wilson completed 79 of 136 passes for 1,022 yards, 14 touchdowns and one interception against any iteration of man coverage. No other quarterback had more than nine touchdowns against man. Rookie receiver DK Metcalf is one of four receivers (Amari Cooper, Mike Evans and Marvin Jones are the others) with five touchdown receptions against man coverage, and Tyler Lockett has four more. Schematically, this is where we hope for a re-run of Super Bowl XLIX, because the Patriots are by far the NFL’s best man-coverage team, with 10 interceptions and just one touchdown allowed in Cover-0, Cover-1 or 2-Man. Anyone else needs to zone up, because Wilson, one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks in a crowded MVP race, will demolish you if you decide to track his receivers too closely.
5. Green Bay Packers
(8-2. Week 11 Bye. Last week: 5)
Packers head coach and offensive play-designer Matt LaFleur did the smart thing in Green Bay’s Week 10 win over the Panthers, sending his running backs into the soft teeth of Carolina’s vulnerable run defense to the tune of 163 yards and three touchdowns on 27 carries. In this scenario, Aaron Rodgers was more of a game manager than anything else. What the Packers will do against the 49ers this upcoming Sunday remains to be seen, but a one-dimensional plan probably won’t cut it against San Francisco’s defense. Rodgers will have to test an aggressive secondary, and Green Bay’s pass-rushers must continue to meet at the quarterback as they did against Carolina — when the defense put up three sacks, seven quarterback hits and an astonishing 23 quarterback hurries. If the Packers are able to take the 49ers down, it would put them firmly in the discussion among the NFC’s best teams. Anything else will be a tough sell, especially with the 8-3 Vikings breathing down their necks in the NFC North.
4. New England Patriots
(9-1. Last week: 3)
Tom Brady set a personal record with 14 first-half incompletions Sunday, connecting with his receivers on just 11 of 25 attempts for just 103 yards and no touchdowns. New England’s defense, which has kept this team in games when the offense could not, allowed a 95-yard touchdown drive that crossed the first and second quarters and took 9:33 off the clock. This Super Bowl LII rematch was going to be a slog all the way. In the end, Brady completed 26 of 47 passes for 216 yards in a game where the only Patriots touchdown pass was thrown by receiver Julian Edelman. New England was able to pull out a 17-10 win because it was facing an Eagles passing game more limited than its own, but there are issues here. This marked the third time since Week 4 that Brady has been held without a touchdown pass, and the 298 yards in total offense was the second-lowest of the season — ahead of only the 224 yards amassed against the Bills in Week 4. As a rushing team, the Patriots have a distinct low ceiling — they’ve rushed for 74 yards in four different games, including this one. The offensive line is subpar, Brady’s receivers struggle to gain separation at the best of times, and unless this defense maintains its historical pace, it’s difficult to see this team returning to the Super Bowl. Of course, many observers have thrown dirt on this offense before, only to be proven wrong, but this feels like a systemic issue.
3. New Orleans Saints
(8-2. Last week: 4)
One week after the Saints were embarrassed by Atlanta’s new-look defense to the tune of a 26-9 upset, they got back on the right track against a Buccaneers team all too willing to allow a 34-17 victory. Dennis Allen’s defense got back on track, intercepting four Jameis Winston passes even without top cornerback Marshon Lattimore. By bracketing Mike Evans with cornerback P.J. Williams and safety Marcus Williams, New Orleans kept Tampa Bay’s top receiver in check with four receptions on eight targets for 69 yards, and two interceptions when targeted. On offense, Drew Brees was ruthlessly efficient against Tampa Bay’s shredded secondary, completing 28 of 35 passes for 228 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions. Michael Thomas, Brees’ top target, had eight receptions for 114 yards and a touchdown. Thomas has 94 receptions on the season, passing Marvin Harrison and Julio Jones for the most catches in the first 10 games of a season in NFL history. It’s also been 188 Thomas catches since his last dropped pass, which came in Week 7 of last season. Given Thomas’ transition between Brees and Teddy Bridgewater and back to Brees, maybe he should be given some MVP consideration.
2. San Francisco 49ers
(9-1. Last week: 2)
Through the first few drives of their team’s eventual Sunday win over the Cardinals, the 49ers’ defense looked like anything but one of the league’s best. Rookie quarterback Kyler Murray carved San Francisco up for 15 completions in 21 attempts for 108 yards and two touchdowns in the first half alone, and Arizona’s defense used a ton of aggressive man coverage and interesting safety disguises to make life difficult for Jimmy Garoppolo and his receivers. Garoppolo completed just eight of 15 passes in the first half, but overcame two interceptions to help the 49ers get back into the game after falling behind, 16-0. Jimmy G finished his day with 34 completions in 45 attempts for a career-high 424 yards and four touchdowns in a high-volume game plan that had him attempting just one pass of 20 air yards or more. The 36-26 win kept San Francisco in possession of the NFC’s best record and kept the Seahawks off their heels in the NFC West for one more week. But it can also be said that in their past two games — this comeback win and Monday night’s loss to Seattle — Robert Saleh’s defense has not looked as it once did. If this continues, and Garoppolo is put under more pressure to perform, things could get interesting.
1. Baltimore Ravens
(8-2. Last week: 1)
“Now I would just like to introduce y’all to the man, the myth, the legend, the MVP front-runner. … If anybody else got something different to say about that, then come see me. I’m right here in B-more.”
That’s how Ravens running back Mark Ingram introduced quarterback Lamar Jackson to the postgame podium following Baltimore’s 41-7 demolition of the Texans, and it’s tough to argue against Jackson’s candidacy at this point. Jackson used his feet to great effect as he generally does, but this game was more about him as a passer — the same guy who’s put up two games this season with a perfect passer rating didn’t quite do that this time (139.2), but he did complete 17 of 24 passes for 222 yards, four touchdown passes and no interceptions. It’s a great story, but the undercurrent that should make the rest of the NFL nervous is how well Baltimore’s defense has come into shape over the past few weeks. The acquisition of Marcus Peters was a huge win, and because of the quality of his secondary, defensive coordinator Don Martindale can call blitz after blitz with relative impunity. Houston quarterback Deshaun Watson, who completed 18 of 29 passes for 169 yards and an interception, and was sacked six times, can attest to that.
Touchdown Wire editor Doug Farrar has also covered football for Yahoo! Sports, Sports Illustrated, Bleacher Report, the Washington Post, and Football Outsiders. His first book, “The Genius of Desperation,” a schematic history of professional football, was published by Triumph Books in 2018 and won the Professional Football Researchers Association’s Nelson Ross Award for “Outstanding recent achievement in pro football research and historiography.”
