As Tony Romo reminded us this week, there can be a certain nobility in knowing when to accept defeat. But you know what’s better than being a good loser? Being an excellent winner - just like ambushinthenight, Martin Miller and SaintJames - the only three people who called every game correctly in Week 10 of our Pick Six contest.
The latter member of that trio leapt up to within two points of first place in the overall standings, too, but for now Besd1, GlennyTheElder and ITLaw23 continue to lead the way. I’ll have the full list up in the comments section shortly, but for now here are this week’s games.
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts (Sunday 1pm ET/6pm GMT)
Dismiss Mike Mularkey at your peril. Many of us mocked the Titans head coach back in February, when he defined his offensive philosophy as “exotic smashmouth”. Few are laughing now (and even fewer in Wisconsin) after Tennessee put 47 points on the Packers. Mularkey’s team has scored at least 35 in each of its last three games and – with DeMarco Murray alternately trampling over defenders, then deceiving them with trick-play passing – that offense is more than living up to its billing. This next hurdle, though, is a big one: the Titans have not beaten Indianapolis in their last 10 attempts. The Colts also arrive at this matchup refreshed from a bye week, and looking healthier than they have done all year. They were missing Donte Moncrief, Dwayne Allen and guard Jack Mewhort when they beat the Titans in Tennessee last month. All of those players are now back in the lineup. Colts to win
Arizona Cardinals @ Minnesota Vikings (Sunday 1pm ET/6pm GMT)
The Vikings, as you might have spotted, are imploding. A brilliant 5-0 start has been succeeded by four consecutive defeats and an eyebrow-raising change at offensive coordinator. Injuries have decimated the offense, and the run game has ground to a halt – with Minnesota averaging a pathetic 2.7 yards per carry. Arizona, though, hardly look all that much better. At a surface level, you might infer that they are trending in the opposite direction – recovering from a 1-3 start to claw their way back to 4-4-1 – and yet their only wins since the start of October were against the 49ers (twice) and Jets. And, oh boy, didn’t they make hard work of beating San Francisco at home last weekend. They have injuries of their own to contend with, from Larry Fitzgerald through to safety Tyrann Mathieu and linebacker Deonne Bucannon, and have also struggled up front on offense – with Carson Palmer sacked more times already this season than he was in all of 2015. I don’t believe either of these teams makes the playoffs. But in a pinch, this Sunday, I’ll back the one that does at least still boast a viable ground game. Cardinals to win
Buffalo Bills @ Cincinnati Bengals (Sunday 1pm ET/6pm GMT)
The schedule-makers have been cruel on the Bengals, pitching them on a short week against opponents who are coming off a bye. Buffalo would have needed a lot more than a week, though, to recover from the blow of losing Eric Wood to a broken leg. LeSean McCoy described the center as “probably the most important player on our offense”, noting how he was responsible for communicating blocking scheme adjustments at the line. Neutralizing the likes of Geno Atkins and Carlos Dunlap will certainly be trickier without him. Even so, I lean towards Buffalo. The gulf between six days’ rest and 14 at this stage of the season is simply too big to ignore. Bills to win
Miami Dolphins @ Los Angeles Rams (Sunday 4.05pm ET/9.05pm GMT)
Here begins the Jared Goff era. But what can we expect of the Rams’ No1 pick? He certainly has a stronger arm than Case Keenum, and there is a best-case scenario here in which Goff not only upgrades Los Angeles’ aerial attack but also creates running room for Todd Gurley in the process. Conversely, even in a worst-case scenario, would the rookie really damage his team all that much? The Rams were already averaging the fewest points per game (15.4) of any team in the league. Most weeks, the pertinent question is simply whether they can do enough on defense to give themselves a shot. I can well imagine Aaron Donald dominating against a reshuffled Miami offensive line, with Laremy Tunsil moving out from guard to replace the injured Brandon Albert at left tackle. And yet, I’m still not sure I can imagine the Rams ending the Dolphins’ four-game winning streak. Dolphins to win
Green Bay Packers @ Washington (Sunday 8.30pm ET/Monday 1.30am GMT)
Nobody in Washington is about to take the Packers lightly. Memories of last season’s wild card defeat are still too raw. But Green Bay’s rough patch has dragged on long enough now that the rest of us might want to start downgrading our expectations. Since the start of November 2015, the Packers’ (playoff-inclusive) record is a mediocre 9-12. Aaron Rodgers owns worse passer rating and yards-per-attempt numbers this season than Brian Hoyer, Cody Kessler, and, indeed, Washington’s own Kirk Cousins. Perhaps the return of Clay Matthews this week will help to offset his struggles by shoring up a defense that has fallen even further short of expectations. But as of right now, Washington simply look the better team. Washington to win
Houston Texans @ Oakland Raiders (Monday 8.30pm ET/Tuesday 1.30am GMT)
There will be no home-field advantage for Oakland on Monday Night Football, with this game taking place at Mexico’s Estadio Azteca. For a team chasing its first playoff berth in 14 years, that feels like a significant sacrifice to make. On the other hand, the Raiders are 5-0 on the road this season, so we should not doubt their ability to cope without home comforts. I also think they match up pretty well with Houston – who can be read as a slightly worse version of the Denver team that Oakland steamrollered earlier this month. The Texans’ greatest strength lies on defense – and yet, much like the Broncos, they are not actually that strong against the run. If Jack Del Rio can show the same faith once again in his stable of just-about-good-enough backs, then he might well get the same result. Raiders to win
