The thing about being a historically great defense is that, even as a historically great defense, you’re allowed one stinker of a game. The 1985 Bears were upended by the Miami Dolphins’ quick passing game in their only loss of the season. The 2000 Ravens gave up 481 passing yards to Vinny Testaverde and 386 passing yards against Mark Brunell, although they won both games. The 2002 Buccaneers gave up 260 passing yards and two touchdowns to Aaron Brooks in an overtime loss, and the 2013 Seahawks allowed 355 passing yards to Matt Schaub, though a Richard Sherman pick-six was a big factor in Seattle’s eventual win.
The point of all this is to say that just because they were abnormally upended in Week 9, it doesn’t mean that you should take the defenses of the Patriots or the 49ers any less seriously. Both defenses will take their teams about as far as they will go in the postseason, though New England looked very vulnerable against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, and the 49ers looked all too mortal in a tight win over the Cardinals.
It’s easy to take recent events and overstate their importance. But in the larger view of an NFL season, great defenses tend to stay great. When the 49ers play host to the Seahawks in a crucial NFC West battle next Monday and the Patriots take on the Eagles on Nov. 17 after a bye week, I suspect we’ll rediscover that long-held NFL truth.
Here’s how all 32 teams fared in our Week 10 Power Rankings:
32. Cincinnati Bengals
(0-8. Week 9 Bye. Last week: 32)
The Bengals had a bye this week, but Andy Dalton still took a loss. Cincinnati’s erstwhile starter since 2011, when he made the Pro Bowl in his rookie year, was benched for the foreseeable future in favor of rookie Ryan Finley. The fact that I called this halfway through the 2019 preseason was less a testament to Finley’s talent than it was an acknowledgement that Dalton is what he has always been — the kind of quarterback who will leave you in purgatory at the position. Never good enough to carry a team on his shoulders when needed, but rarely bad enough to get himself replaced; Dalton now seems at the mercy of an organization that is looking to rebuild from the studs and start over. This likely puts Dalton in a different locker room next season, and goodness knows there are quarterback situations he could improve to a point — but this is less an example of a bad team blaming its best player and more the truth of Dalton’s low ceiling hitting him square in the face.
31. New York Jets
(1-7. Last week: 25)
At the end of his press conference following the Jets’ 26-18 loss to the previously winless Dolphins, head coach Adam Gase was asked if this result validated the decision of the Dolphins to fire Gase last season. “I don’t know. I’m not going to answer that. That’s ridiculous,” Gase responded. Maybe, and maybe not. Through his career as a head coach, Gase has 24 wins and 25 losses by double digits. That’s due in part to the lack of talent Gase had had around him, but after 3 1/2 seasons as a head coach, a 24-32 record, and little offensive development to speak of wherever he’s been (which is a pronounced problem for an alleged offensive guru) it’s clear that the Jets need to be thinking of contingency plans. Defensive coordinator Gregg Williams was the Browns’ interim head coach last season after Hue Jackson’s firing; Williams might need to get ready for another stint.
30. Washington Redskins
(1-8. Last week: 31)
The Redskins announced last week that rookie quarterback Dwayne Haskins would make his first NFL start against the Bills. It was an odd decision; putting a player who’s still struggling to read defenses at a base level against one of the most effective and diverse passing defenses in the league. The result was what you might expect, as Haskins completed 15 of 22 passes for 144 yards, with no touchdowns and no interceptions and was sacked four times. It was a game-manager’s menu, and while Haskins has four interceptions to no touchdowns so far in his rookie campaign, perhaps it was the start of something. More disconcerting for this team is a defense that allowed Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen to play a similar game-manager script more effectively and continues to play below its talent level.
29. Atlanta Falcons
(1-7. Week 9 Bye. Last week: 30)
The Falcons spent part of their bye week releasing 44-year-old kicker Matt Bryant after the veteran missed two field goals in Atlanta’s 27-20 loss to the Seahawks. Simple math will tell you that it would have taken more than two field goals to be on the right side of that score, just as the eye test will tell you that the Falcons have many more problems than an ineffective kicker. Only the Raiders and Dolphins have given up a higher passing touchdown percentage than Atlanta’s 7.6% rate, and Dan Quinn’s secondary seems particularly ill-equipped to handle things in the red zone (ask DK Metcalf about that). The Falcons are tied with the Cardinals and Bengals for the NFL’s lowest team interception total with two. That Quinn took special care to become more involved in the defense this season, and the extent to which it has regressed, seem to indicate that Quinn would be better off overseeing the whole team — or finding his next position strictly on the defensive side of the ball.
28. Cleveland Browns
(2-6. Last week: 28)
Let’s take a look at this week’s Browns Discipline Meter. On Monday, the team released safety Jermaine Whitehead following a threatening, obscene and unhinged Twitter meltdown. Following Cleveland’s 24-19 loss to the Broncos, Odell Beckham Jr., who caught five passes for 87 yards in the loss, was still unhappy about his role in Cleveland’s now-broken passing offense. “I can’t get a ball to save my life,” Beckham was heard to say after Mayfield went elsewhere on a crucial fourth-down play. For whatever reason, Mayfield seems to have an issue throwing to Beckham when he’s covered, which would seem to go against Beckham’s history and ability. Also, with their five penalties, the Browns managed to stay atop the league in that category, with 94 flags on the season. Then, there was Mayfield’s mid-week meltdown with a member of the Cleveland media. Taken piece by piece, and on a team with a better record, maybe this doesn’t look systemic. But it’s hard to argue against any other reality than the one which says that Freddie Kitchens doesn’t have a good hold on his team.
27. Miami Dolphins
(1-7. Last week: 29)
It’s not that the Dolphins’ first win of the season was that much of a surprise. The Jets, who fell to Miami in a 26-18 embarrassment, were the only team with a lower offensive yards per play rate than the Dolphins this season (4.0 to 4.4). Miami had been at least competitive in its past few games, and for all the talk of tanking, Brian Flores had kept his team active and engaged. It’s a testament to that ability, and the Dolphins’ ability to spot the sucker in the room, that led to this achievement. Ryan Fitzpatrick threw three touchdown passes in a game for the first time in a year, and the Dolphins defense capitalized on New York’s mistakes. Although Miami isn’t going to face Adam Gase every week, this was a positive step forward for a franchise that’s still in the hunt for the first overall draft position in 2020. If the Dolphins can hit the top five without losing their momentum (such as it is), Flores will have performed a relative coaching masterpiece.
26. Denver Broncos
(3-6. Last week: 27)
For the second straight year, and for two different teams in that time (Baltimore and Denver), Joe Flacco lost his job to a young quarterback after injuries and ineffectiveness took him down. Not that anyone’s going to mistake Brandon Allen for Lamar Jackson, but the Arkansas alum, selected in the sixth round of the 2016 draft by the Jaguars, did well enough after waiting three years for his first NFL start. Allen completed 12 of 20 passes for 193 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions against a Browns defense that has (to put it kindly) underperformed. Not that it means much in the long term for a franchise that keeps misevaluating quarterbacks, but it’s a nice blip that Allen’s performance helped a defense that’s been flying under the radar this season and has had little help from its offense this season.
25. New York Giants
(2-7. Last week: 23)
The familiar issues reared their heads for the Giants in a 37-18 Monday night loss to the Cowboys. A secondary that has been sub-par all the way through, cornerback Janoris Jenkins excepted, was entirely vulnerable against Dak Prescott and his targets. And Ezekiel Elliott pinballed through a vulnerable front seven for 19 yards on 23 carries. Quarterback Daniel Jones was more effective as a runner than as a passer — he led his team with 54 rushing yards on six carries, while Saquon Barkley could manage just 28 yards on 14 attempts — and Jones’ fumble at the end of the game, returned 63 yards by defensive back Jourdain Lewis for a touchdown, was a gift the Cowboys didn’t need. In the end, the 2019 Giants are what we thought they were — a team with occasional flashes of talent, and huge outposts of mediocre football. When you’re built that way, that’s what happens on the field.
24. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
(2-6. Last week: 22)
You have to give Bruce Arians and Jameis Winston credit for this — they knew they were going against an uncharacteristically weak Seattle pass defense on Sunday, and they made the most of it. Winston, who leads the league in interceptions with 12, didn’t throw a single pick and completed 29 of 44 passes for 335 yards and two touchdown passes. Nobody could seem to cover gargantuan receiver Mike Evans, and for once, it looked like the offense one would imagine under Arians with someone of Winston’s base talent. The problem was on defense, where Todd Bowles had five rookies starting, and a preponderance of man coverage wore the kids out — which was nothing compared to what Russell Wilson did to them with his five touchdown passes in a 40-34 overtime win. The Bucs hit a buzzsaw in Wilson, who has to be the prevailing MVP candidate. But when you’re 2-6, there have been too many buzzsaws.
23. Chicago Bears
(3-5. Last week: 21)
On Sunday, Mitchell Trubisky faced an Eagles defense that has allowed an opponent passer rating of 91.0, a yards-per-completion average of 12.0, 16 touchdowns to eight interceptions and several busted coverages per game. Against this defense, Trubisky completed 10 of 21 passes for 125 yards. At the end of the first half, Trubisky had completed six of 13 passes for 24 yards, and had taken 23 yards in sacks — a net passing total of one yard. The Bears had nine net yards to the Eagles’ 202 at the half, and Chicago ended the game with 164 to Philadelphia’s 373. Nearly half of Trubisky’s passing yards came on a 53-yard completion to receiver Taylor Gabriel in which Philly’s defense failed to defend Gabriel’s deep over route with any deep safety help. Other than that, Bears head coach Matt Nagy put out a highly restrictive game plan for his second-year quarterback. Not only does it appear that Nagy has very little faith in Trubisky to get anything done downfield; it also appears that Trubisky has become paralyzed by his need to be mistake-proof and his inability to do so. The Bears are losing an entire season at the altar of the game’s most important position, and at some point, somebody’s going to have to cut the cord.
22. Los Angeles Chargers
(4-5. Last week: 26)
For the fist time this season, the Chargers looked balanced in all facets in a 26-11 upset of the Packers. Shane Steichen, who replaced recently fired offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt, put forth a game plan with crisper execution and a quicker tempo. Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler combined for 150 yards on the ground, and Gordon scored two touchdowns. Philip Rivers completed 21 of 28 passes for 294 yards despite pressure from Green Bay’s defensive front. But the real story was a Chargers defense that went after Aaron Rodgers mercilessly, limiting him to 161 passing yards and tearing apart what had been a very cohesive offense under Matt LaFleur. Stuffed in the NFL’s bargain bin after a three-game losing streak that set them at 2-5 a couple weeks back, the Chargers now have a chance for divisional relevance if they can beat the Raiders this Thursday night.
21. Tennessee Titans
(4-5. Last week: 20)
Ryan Tannehill’s reunion tour with the NFL lasted exactly two weeks in a positive sense. On Sunday, the former Dolphins franchise quarterback ran headlong into Carolina’s underrated defense, and in a 30-20 loss, he turned back into the guy he had generally been before — a player with great athletic potential and maddeningly uneven results. Tannehill completed 27 of 39 passes for 331 yards and a touchdown, which isn’t bad. But he also threw two interceptions — one was dropped by a receiver drop; the other was a bad read. Tannehill still gives more to the passing game than Marcus Mariota can at this point, but the league will need to see more of the upside from Tannehill before it will deem his reformation complete. More disconcerting for Tennessee is that its generally above-average defense was ripped to shreds by Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey, who registered 146 yards on the ground, 20 receiving yards and three total touchdowns.
20. Detroit Lions
(3-4-1. Last week: 17)
On fourth-and-1 from the Oakland 1-yard line with eight seconds left in the game, the Lions had the opportunity to either tie the Raiders or go ahead with a touchdown and a two-point conversion. Oakland had called a timeout, giving Detroit the opportunity to optimize their offensive personnel for the play. This, Detroit did not do. They took Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay, their two best receivers, off the field. Then when Matthew Stafford tried to fit a fadeaway jumper to tight end Logan Thomas in the end zone, Raiders safety Karl Joseph broke up the play.
It was a fitting summary for a team that has been more formidable in base talent than it has been in design and execution throughout the season. Detroit’s defense, which had been above average with its man and match coverage concepts early in the season, was punked by Jon Gruden’s offense, and a rookie class (running back Josh Jacobs, tight end Foster Moreau, receiver Hunter Renfrow) that scored four touchdowns. That the Lions have been underachievers to their personnel for so long certainly doesn’t make the sting of games like this any easier to take, but it has to be said that this shouldn’t be a sub-.500 team based on the talent it puts on the field. Head coach Matt Patricia and his staff should be doing some heavy soul-searching right about now.
19. Jacksonville Jaguars
(4-5. Last week: 15)
With Nick Foles ready to come back from his Week 1 collarbone injury, it was time for Gardner Minshew to make head coach Doug Marrone’s quarterback decision as difficult as possible by balling out against the Texans over in London. This, Minshew did not do. In a 26-3 loss, the sixth-round rookie completed 27 of 47 passes for 309 yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions. At one point in the game, Jacksonville turned the ball over three times in a span of four offensive plays, and all were Minshew’s fault — two picks and a fumble. This isn’t to say that Minshew is a bust; he absolutely is not. He came up against a defense that understood how to deal with him. The Texans kept Minshew in the pocket and forced him to read coverages under duress, and a lot of veteran quarterbacks struggle with that. Even with this stinker of a game, Minshew still leads all rookie quarterbacks in touchdown passes (13), passing yards (2,285), and quarterback rating (92.8). It’s not even certain that Foles will bring anything to the field that Minshew doesn’t, and Marrone has said that he won’t make up his mind right away. The Jaguars have a bye next week, but given the four-year, $88 million contract the team gave Foles this offseason, they’re going to want to at least find out.
18. Pittsburgh Steelers
(4-4. Last week: 24)
The Dolphins traded defensive back Minkah Fitzpatrick to the Steelers in September, after a 2018 rookie season in which Fitzpatrick was great at just about every possible position in the secondary, and Miami still couldn’t figure out how to use him. Giving up a 2020 first-round pick for Fitzpatrick was seen as a pricey move by those who believed Fitzpatrick to be a limited slot defender. But he’s intercepted four passes for the Steelers since he was installed in that defense in Week 3, leading all deep safeties — which is where all four of Fitzpatrick’s picks have come. His 96-yard pick-six against the Colts on Sunday set things in Pittsburgh’s favor in a 26-24 win, and he’s reversed course for a defensive backfield that’s been highly vulnerable over the past few years. Fitzpatrick has allowed just seven catches and given up an opponent passer rating of 36.2. If anyone tells you the Steelers could guarantee those kinds of results with an actual first-round pick in 2020, they’re selling you a bridge.
17. Arizona Cardinals
(3-5-1. Last week: 19)
Last Thursday night marked the Cardinals’ most impressive offensive performance in a long time, and certainly the most impressive under Kliff Kingsbury, as Arizona gave the undefeated 49ers all they could handle in a 28-25 loss. Kyler Murray completed 17 of 24 passes for 241 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions, and newly acquired running back Kenyan Drake proved to be a revelation. The ex-Dolphin excelled in inside zone and gap concepts, picking up 110 yards and a touchdown on 15 carries and adding four receptions for 52 yards. The Cardinals’ defense remains a disappointing mystery, but those who doubted Kingsbury’s ability to adapt to the NFL with multiple personnel packages and favorable concepts should take a step back and review what he’s doing now. Arizona has a get-well game against Tampa Bay before facing the 49ers again, and that will be a fascinating rematch to watch.
16. Los Angeles Rams
(5-3. Week 9 Bye. Last week: 14)
You can’t blame the Rams if they’re feeling a bit uncertain right now. Last season, they were the absolute kings of the NFC West halfway through the season, with an 8-1 record after nine weeks. Now, they’re looking up at the 49ers, the NFL’s only remaining undefeated team, and a 7-2 Seahawks squad that is winning ugly, but still winning. The Rams already have lost to each of those teams. Trading Aqib Talib to the Dolphins in what was essentially a complicated salary dump ostensibly gives the Rams more money to sign Jalen Ramsey to a mega-contract down the road. In the interim, both Talib and Marcus Peters, the former stalwarts of the secondary, have been shown the door via recent trades. Not that they’d admit it, but you tend to wonder if head coach Sean McVay and general manager Les Snead are assembling their pieces for a run in 2020 and accepting the idea that this might not be their year.
15. Oakland Raiders
(4-4. Last week: 18)
Jon Gruden’s team hadn’t played at home since Week 2. They went 2-3 in four official away games and a game in England. There were 10 players on Oakland’s current roster who had never played an actual home game, but the real newcomer story in the Raiders’ 31-24 win over the Lions on Sunday is Oakland’s 2019 draft class. General Manager Mike Mayock was gifted with two extra first-round picks, but he’s spun a lot of gold in this class. First-round back Josh Jacobs had 120 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Fourth-round tight end Foster Moreau and fifth-round receiver Hunter Renfrow also caught touchdown passes, making the 2019 Raiders the first team since the 2015 Seahawks to have rookies score four touchdowns in a win. If we’re comparing the Raiders to the peak of the Seattle draft classes, I’d say Mayock deserves a raise.
14. Philadelphia Eagles
(5-4. Last week: 16)
In two straight wins that have taken the Eagles from irrelevance to borderline division contention, Doug Pederson’s team has done two things: It has relied more on running back Jordan Howard to buttress an offense that has no real speed targets for quarterback Carson Wentz, and it also has managed to limit the damage generally caused by a secondary that has been incapable of playing in position through much of the season. Admittedly, those improvements came against Buffalo’s Josh Allen and Chicago’s Mitchell Trubisky, but any port in a storm, as they say. DeSean Jackson is expected to miss six weeks with an abdominal tear, which means Wentz will still be short any serious downfield weapons. The challenges get more difficult after a Week 10 bye, with home games against New England and Seattle. That should be enough to discern whether the Eagles are for real in any postseason sense.
13. Indianapolis Colts
(5-3. Last week: 9)
Colts quarterback Jacoby Brissett has been one of the NFL’s most pleasant surprises because of how he’s taken over for Andrew Luck with barely a transitional ding. Which puts Brissett’s sprained MCL — an injury he suffered in Indianapolis’ 26-24 loss to the Steelers — as a big bummer right about now. Backup Brian Hoyer threw four touchdown passes — unfortunately one of them was a 96-yard pick-six to Pittsburgh safety Minkah Fitzpatrick. Adam Vinatieri’s kicking woes continued, and Indy’s defense wasn’t as prepared to stop Pittsburgh’s depleted offense as Colts fans would have liked. Those who believed Brissett was nothing but a bridge between Luck and the next franchise quarterback could find room to admit Brissett’s importance in his absence, however long that may be.
12. Dallas Cowboys
(5-3. Last week: 13)
It was a good return after their bye for the Cowboys, as Dak Prescott took advantage of the Giants’ sub-par secondary with three touchdown passes, and Ezekiel Elliott pinballed his way through a front seven that wasn’t much better for 139 rushing yards on 23 carries. Looking forward to the second half of the season and Dallas’ potential playoff run, it was refreshing to see the effect Michael Bennett had on the defensive line with several pressures and four quarterback hits, and how veteran linebacker Sean Lee turned back the clock as star Leighton Vander Esch remained out with a neck injury. Ending the gave with a forced fumble of Giants quarterback Daniel Jones and a 63 -yard recovery by defensive back Jourdan Lewis was the capper in a 37-18 win that showed a lot about how the Cowboys can win in the final two months of the regular season.
11. Minnesota Vikings
(6-3. Last week: 5)
The thing about Kirk Cousins is that there are times when he appears to break through his own ceiling for periods of time. However, those periods of time are always followed by the NFL upending Cousins, and returning him to his place as merely a decent quarterback. In Minnesota’s 26-23 loss to Kansas City, Cousins failed to maneuver his team into a victory formation, completing just 19 of 38 passes for 220 yards. Cousins did throw three touchdown passes, but just as often, he appeared out of sorts against the Chiefs’ array of blitzes and pressures. It didn’t help that the Vikings’ execution-based defense also looked out of sorts against a Kansas City offense that seemed to have one base strategy — hurl the ball to the obviously open receiver — but as much as Cousins had been the prime factor in Minnesota’s hot month, this loss raised many of the same old concerns.
10. Green Bay Packers
(7-2. Last week: 4)
Well, this was unexpected. The Packers came into their Sunday turn with the Chargers operating on all cylinders offensively and with Aaron Rodgers still feeling the glow of a bravura performance against the Chiefs the week before. Hounded constantly by Chargers edge rushers Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram, Rodgers struggled to find consistency with his receivers, and for all the work new head coach Matt LaFleur has done to make this offense more cohesive, this was a regression to the days of Mike McCarthy serving up a playbook stolen from the 1973 Dolphins and Rodgers running for his life. Rodgers said after the game that the 26-11 loss was a slice of humble pie, and if that’s the case, the Packers had better devour it in a hurry — they face the Panthers and 49ers in their next two games.
9. Buffalo Bills
(6-2. Last week: 12)
Is it time to start taking the Bills more seriously? Football Outsiders might think not, as it ranks the team as the third-worst 6-2 team in the history of its metrics, which date to the 1986 season. Certainly, it’s easy to wonder about a team with a quarterback in Josh Allen who hasn’t thrown for more than 254 yards or two touchdowns in a game this season. Eventually, if the Bills want to be judged among the NFL’s best, that worm will have to turn, and Allen will have to be more than a game manager who can get extra yards with his legs. But this is also a team with a live defense and a great rushing attack, now led by rookie Devin Singletary and augmented by veteran legend Frank Gore. That should be enough to get them into the playoffs; what happens beyond that will rest on Allen’s shoulders, for better or worse.
8. Kansas City Chiefs
(6-3. Last week: 8)
If Patrick Mahomes returns to action Sunday against the Titans after a two-week break due to a knee injury, he’ll return to a team that has improved exponentially in one key area. Per Next Gen Stats, Kansas City has increased its pressure rate from 20% to 35% in the past two weeks, and improved its sack rate from 5% to 12% over that time. It means that defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s pressure packages are finally taking hold, with edge defenders Tanoh Kpassagnon and Emmanuel Ogbah proving to be especially effective over that period. Add in the efforts of the always-effective Chris Jones and a secondary that also has shown improvement, and the Chiefs start to look like a team that doesn’t have to rely on Mahomes to do it all.
7. Carolina Panthers
(5-3. Last week: 11)
A running back hasn’t won the AP Most Valuable Player award since LaDainian Tomlinson in 2006, and it’s not likely to happen in 2019. But that’s not to negate Christian McCaffrey’s value to the Panthers, which just may be as great a value as a running back can have to a team in this era. The third-year man from Stanford leads the league in yards from scrimmage with 1,244, and total touchdowns with 13. He’s on pace for 2,488 yards from scrimmage, which would put him second all-time in NFL history behind Tennessee’s Chris Johnson, who put up 2,509 yards in 2009. It wasn’t enough for Johnson that time around (Peyton Manning won the MVP that year), but when you see a historically rare season from a running back at a time when the position is seemingly thrown into lesser and lesser value, it’s certainly worth mentioning.
6. Seattle Seahawks
(7-2. Last week: 10)
At this point, it really doesn’t matter what you throw at Russell Wilson — as has been true with every historically great quarterback, he transcends it. Are his game plans uneven and his receivers inconsistent? No problem. Does Seattle’s defense force Wilson to throw near-perfect games every week? He can do that. How about an iffy, injury-plagued offensive line? He’s had that for years. Wilson faced all these things against the Buccaneers on Sunday, and as has been the case all season, no downturn in the performances around him seemed to make a dent. In Seattle’s 40-34 overtime win over the Buccaneers, Wilson completed 29 of 43 passes for 379 yards, five touchdowns and no interceptions. He now leads the NFL with 22 touchdown passes and a touchdown pass rate of 7.5%. He also boasts a league-best interception rate of 0.3%, because he’s thrown just one in 293 attempts. Wilson is the clear front-runner for this year’s MVP award.
5. Houston Texans
(6-3. Last week: 7)
Another week, another series of unbelievable plays from Deshaun Watson. The Texans quarterback, who has absolutely shoved his way into the MVP discussion, took his game to London — and to the Jaguars — in a 26-3 win. Watson completed 22 of 28 passes for 201 yards and two touchdowns. It wasn’t his most impressive stat line of the season, but there are things this guy does that just can’t fit in any box score. The touchdown pass he threw to tight end Darren Fells last week against the Raiders after a defender kicked him in the eye was one example; this ridiculous shovel pass against Jacksonville was another.
Watson has now passed Andrew Luck for the fifth-most passing yards by a quarterback in his first 32 games. In Sunday’s game, he also became the first player in NFL history with at least 17 passing touchdowns and five rushing touchdowns in the first nine games of a season. In his third NFL season, Watson has become every bit the player Houston hoped he would be when they selected him with the 12th pick in the 2017 draft.
4. Baltimore Ravens
(6-2. Last week: 6)
Not that the Ravens’ ability to run all over the Patriots was a complete surprise; it’s worth remembering that New England has allowed 4.7 yards per carry this season and gave up 131 rushing yards to Cleveland’s Nick Chubb in Week 8. But the extent to which Lamar Jackson was able to demolish that defense with simple option-read runs, and the ways in which Jackson’s backfield counterparts were able to play off that was a bit shocking. You figured Bill Belichick would have a plan for this, as he always seems to, but he really didn’t. Baltimore’s 37-20 win was the story of the season so far, but let’s talk about where the Ravens go from here. With Jimmy Smith returning to a secondary that already has Earl Thomas, Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters, Baltimore is playing more lockdown coverage. Although they don’t have a premium edge rusher, they’re getting pressure with scheme, which is good enough. And when Jackson isn’t forcing defensive meltdowns with his legs, he’s a pretty fair passer. Add it all up, and this starts to look like one of the AFC’s most dangerous teams through the second half of the season.
3. New Orleans Saints
(7-1. Week 9 Bye. Last week: 3)
The Saints overcame the loss of Drew Brees to a thumb injury as Sean Payton hoped they would — with a career-redefining series of performances from backup Teddy Bridgewater and a defense that set itself among the NFL’s best. Brees came back with a vengeance against the Cardinals in a 31-9 Week 8 blowout, and given the fact that those same Cardinals took the undefeated 49ers to the mat more than a few times in a narrow loss last Thursday night, it could be argued that by more than transitive property (the old “Team A looked better than Team B against Common Opponent C” type of thing) the Saints are the one team in the NFC nobody wants to face right now. That means the Falcons, whose defense has been abysmal all season and whose offense can’t seem to find traction, will not enjoy their trip to the Mercedes-Benz Superdome next Sunday.
2. New England Patriots
(8-1. Last week: 2)
It was bound to happen, and Baltimore was bound to do it. From the origins of the Wildcat formation in 2008 to Colin Kaepernick’s four-touchdown performance in 2012, Bill Belichick defenses have been vulnerable against option concepts and mobile quarterbacks. New England’s historically great defense looked anything but great in a 37-20 loss, overpursuing Lamar Jackson on simple read-option stuff and getting gashed across the line as the Ravens racked up 210 rushing yards and three touchdowns on 41 carries. What probably will bother Belichick even more than that as he reviews the tape is a Patriots offense that tried to go no-huddle as it did in the early 2010s, but to little avail. Baltimore’s improved defense maintained its composure through 65 plays, and the Ravens offense simply chewed up enough clock to keep Tom Brady off the field for just over 37 minutes. The defensive performance was likely an aberration, given the truth that there’s only one Lamar Jackson in the NFL. The offensive performance, in that Belichick’s coaching crew tried a bunch of clock trickery to no avail, could be the weakness that keeps popping up as the Patriots move toward what they hope will be another Super Bowl run.
1. San Francisco 49ers
(9-0. Last week: 1)
Jimmy Garoppolo had started 17 games before Thursday night’s tilt against the Cardinals in the Valley of the Sun, and he’d never thrown more than three touchdown passes in a game. That low number, combined with Garoppolo’s occasionally tortured reads of enemy defenses, put him firmly in the second tier at his position. But if the Garoppolo that showed up in this 28-25 win is the one the 49ers are going to have the rest of the season, Bay Area fans might want to start planning their Super Bowl parties. Garoppolo completed 28 of 37 passes for 317 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions in a game where San Francisco’s run game was good but not spectacular, and its defense was uncharacteristically vulnerable. Losing linebacker Kwon Alexander for the rest of the season to a torn pectoral muscle will affect Robert Saleh’s base nickel defense for the rest of the season, as Alexander has been outstanding, especially in coverage. With the exception of the Falcons in Week 15, there isn’t an easy out in the rest of the 49ers’ schedule, which puts more pressure on the quarterback. With Emmanuel Sanders as his new able lieutenant, Garoppolo may be ready to take this passing offense to a new level.
Touchdown Wire editor Doug Farrar has also covered football for Yahoo! Sports, Sports Illustrated, Bleacher Report, the Washington Post, and Football Outsiders. His first book, “The Genius of Desperation,” a schematic history of professional football, was published by Triumph Books in 2018 and won the Professional Football Researchers Association’s Nelson Ross Award for “Outstanding recent achievement in pro football research and historiography.”
