Josh Allen entered this season as the unquestioned favorite to win the 2022 MVP award, but after another disastrous, turnover-filled game Sunday against the Vikings, his hold on that perception is steadily decreasing.
The favorites to win MVP at Tipico Sportsbook are Patrick Mahomes at +130 and Jalen Hurts at +250. Allen is third at +500.
But you know who should also be ahead of Allen? The quarterback who just led his team to another victory Sunday to overtake Buffalo for first place in the AFC East: Tua Tagovailoa.
Despite an NFL-leading 82.6 QBR, the Miami Dolphins signal-caller has just the fourth-shortest odds at +650. But his stats are worthy of first-place consideration. After a third straight three-touchdown, zero-interception game to beat the Browns, his 9.1 yards per pass attempt lead the league, his 71 completion percentage is second only to Geno Smith, his 18 touchdowns are tied for third behind Mahomes and Allen, and his three interceptions are tied for second-fewest among starters.
More importantly, the Dolphins are undefeated in games Tagovailoa has started and finished, and he remains the hottest QB in the league right now. So, those numbers could continue sky-rocketing.
That leaves now as the time to get in on his MVP odds before it’s too late.
Tampa is No. 1, as expected
The NFC South is disgusting, and as proof of that, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are back in sole possession of first place after a long, winding road that saw them lose three straight games to fall to 3-5. For further proof of how bad the division is, the former first-place Atlanta Falcons were just worked by the Carolina Panthers, and the New Orleans Saints just had a long day losing to the Pittsburgh Steelers.
So, after all that, we’re back to where we thought we would be when the season started, with Tampa in first place. Their odds to win it are -400 at BetMGM. But I lost confidence in the Bucs a long time. And though they’ll likely make the playoffs because the division is so bad, I still don’t feel good about their chances to go very far.
Yards or TDs?
After Week 10, the favorites to win the NFL’s Offensive Rookie of the Year award remain Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker III and Texans RB Dameon Pierce, with Saints WR Chris Olave a distant third. Walker’s +110 odds at BetMGM lead the way, as do his seven rushing touchdowns. But after managing just 17 yards against the Bucs on Sunday, his 690 total yards fall well short of Pierce’s 898 yards with four total touchdowns.
Pierce’s odds to win the award are +225, a better bargain if we’re to believe voters value his yards just as much as Walker’s touchdowns. And there’s still plenty of season left for him to make up the three-score deficit between the two. Walker’s case is strengthened by Seattle’s strong record, but if the team starts to slip, then what? Seattle has three games left against top-four run defenses. Houston only has one.
Week 10 Bad Beats
- After blowing a 27-10 lead, the Bills were still on track to cover 3.5 points after the Vikings missed an extra point to trail 27-23. But while attempting to kneel from their own goal line, the Bills fumbled the snap and Minnesota recovered in the end zone for a touchdown. Buffalo later tied the game but loss in overtime.
Never give up. Don’t ever give up.
📺@NFLonFOX pic.twitter.com/EOc720iqZB
— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) November 13, 2022
- After blowing a 24-10 lead over the Lions in the fourth quarter, the Bears scored a touchdown to regain the lead, but they missed the extra point to leave the score at 30-24. The Lions later scored and nailed their extra point to win by one.
- The Cowboys also blew a two-score lead in the second half, against the Packers, but they had a chance to kick a long go-ahead field goal in overtime. Instead, they opted to go for it on fourth-and-3 and failed. Six plays later, the Packers won on their own field goal.
PACKERS STOP THE COWBOYS ON 4TH DOWN! pic.twitter.com/XsTBDHAurn
— 𝗙𝗢𝗟𝗟𝗢𝗪 @𝗙𝗧𝗕𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗱𝟳 (@FTBeard7) November 14, 2022
- For those who got the 49ers at -7, the 22-16 final score hurts because it should’ve been 23-16 but the Niners also missed an extra point on their fourth quarter touchdown. Chargers moneyline bettors will hate that the team was outscored 12-0 in the second half to blow a 16-10 lead.
