After the Sunday morning and afternoon games come down for Week 1 (depending on your time zone), the Sunday night game between the Steelers and Patriots brings all kinds of intrigue. Then, there’s a Monday night double-header in which the new-look Texans offense will get its first reps against a Saints team that thinks it’s a Super Bowl contender–and there’s no reason to argue the point. Then, Vic Fangio’s Broncos face a Raiders team that’s had just a little bit of drama this offseason… and they’re just getting started with that.
Touchdown Wire scout Matt Williamson goes deep on all three of these prime-time games.
Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC
Tom Brady has never lost to the Steelers in Foxboro, and overall, the Patriots have had Pittsburgh’s number over the course of Bill Belichick’s tenure. However, the Steelers won this meeting last season and were a controversial call away from winning it the previous year.
With an improved secondary and more importantly, a great injection of speed at the linebacker position. Pittsburgh’s defense is now much better equipped to deal with the Patriots’ quick-hitting short passing game.
We know that Julian Edelman and James White will get a lot of targets, but the pecking order and usage of New England’s receivers is somewhat uncertain beyond that with Rob Gronkowski out of the mix.
Getting to Brady is the key in this one for the Steelers. Pittsburgh has racked up a ton of sacks over the past two seasons, but the Steelers are more effective when blitzing than rushing the traditional four. Meanwhile, Brady was blitzed a very small percentage of the time last year, but wasn’t overly dangerous against added pressure.
With a backup center getting the start for New England, the Steelers need to aggressively come after Brady with interior pressures and trust their cover men on the back end.
On the other side of the ball, expect Belichick to do everything possible to take JuJu Smith-Schuster out of this game. Whether that means putting Stephon Gilmore on the ascending wideout or doubling him with other options remains to be seen, but the Patriots almost always use some form of shadow coverage in their heavy man-to-man scheme. J.C. Jackson spent the day on Smith-Schuster in last year’s meeting, but obviously Antonio Brown was in the mix in 2018.
In the end, these defenses might surprise Sunday Night Football viewers, and instead of a clinic being put on by two future Hall of Fame quarterbacks, it might come down to which team runs the football more consistently. On a per-rush basis, only three defenses were worse than New England last year, and the Patriots return nearly the same group of defenders. Pittsburgh’s defense was far superior in this capacity in 2018. That said, playing in New England in this environment against the Super Bowl champions is about as difficult as it gets in the NFL.
Houston Texans at New Orleans Saints
Monday, 7:10 p.m. ET on ESPN
Houston left tackle Laremy Tunsil will have to get up to speed with his new team, as communication in the Superdome can be problematic, and continuity among offensive lines is always of the utmost importance. Opposing offensive tackles usually have a tough time playing in New Orleans — even when they are accustomed to playing with their teammates.
Running the ball also could be problematic for the Texans against an excellent run defense, and Houston’s offense is now much more equipped to pass a high percentage of the time with a new array of dangerous receivers. In 2018, the Saints were much easier to throw against than run on.
So that works well for how the Texans are structured, but quarterback Deshaun Watson will have to be at his best. Saints cornerback Marshon Lattimore could shadow DeAndre Hopkins, but that doesn’t at all ensure that the All-Pro receiver’s production will be limited.
Houston’s run defense was among the best in the league last year, but the Texans are now without Jadeveon Clowney, who excels against the run. The Saints have a new center in rookie Erik McCoy, but overall, they should be strong in the trenches as usual. Blocking J.J. Watt is the obvious fly in the ointment for New Orleans.
But on the flip side, the combination of All-Pro wideout Michael Thomas, versatile tailback Alvin Kamara and new addition Jared Cook at tight end should greatly stress Houston’s coverage defenders at all levels of the field and we know that Drew Brees throws the ball with remarkable accuracy and precision, especially at home. Walking into New Orleans and winning on this stage is going to be difficult for the Texans.
Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders
Monday, 10:20 p.m. ET on ESPN
You would think that Oakland’s offense would now be designed to go through star receiver Antonio Brown and rookie tailback Josh Jacobs, but it may be a while before Brown develops chemistry with quarterback Derek Carr, even though the mercurial receiver is playing. Brown is perhaps the NFL’s best route-runner, but he relies on communication with his quarterback, and he’s hasn’t really practiced with Carr, never mind seeing any game reps. Jacobs is sure to get a massive workload, though, as both a runner and receiver and Raiders coach Jon Gruden should do a nice job scheming him up to get the football.
The problem is Denver’s defense, and specifically the Broncos’ edge pass-rushers. Raiders right tackle Trent Brown could hold his own on one side, but overall, keeping Derek Carr clean could be difficult for the home team in this matchup — and Carr has proven far more effective when protected than under any sort of duress.
New Broncos head coach Vic Fangio will have made changes to Denver’s defense that Carr has yet to really see. Fangio is right at the top of the list of defensive minds that are toughest to play against the NFL. Denver’s secondary also looks to be improved from a year ago.
With Hall-of-Famer Mike Munchak now in charge of the Broncos’ offensive line and some key offseason personnel additions, expect this unit to look much better on Monday night than last season. Denver has a favorable matchup on the ground and should rely on its two-headed running game all night long as the best path to victory.
The Raiders could also have a tough time getting to Joe Flacco, and while Denver doesn’t have a star receiver, the veteran quarterback would be wise to spread the ball around to several options and shouldn’t have a difficult time finding matchups to his liking.
