Most people who read the weekly best bets know my rules. One of the rules is don’t just bet to bet. Another rule is don’t bet every game because it’s impossible to make money. Well, there is one day — in the regular season since we have to bet every playoff game that is an exception to that rule and that’s Thanksgiving day. There’s nothing better than waking up with a wager on the early game followed by constantly checking your phone during the Thanksgiving meal — insert drunk Uncle joke here because everyone makes one. The obvious next move is to fade in and out of sleep in the afternoon watching football on the couch and moving to a nice adult beverage and the night game to wrap up a beautiful football filled Thursday.
As usual, the home teams are in CAPS, and we are using Bet MGM for our odds. Games will be listed at -110 unless denoted otherwise.
Chicago Bears -2.5 over DETROIT LIONS
Notice, there is no total bet here either. The 39.5 line is crazy low and weird things happen during the early game on Thanksgiving. If you need to take a total, take the under.
Jeff Driskel is dealing with a hamstring injury so David Blugh makes his first start but that’s probably not going to make a difference. The Bears defense is still the Bears defense when it wants to be and a backup quarterback isn’t going to do much against them. Bo Scarborough has been interesting in the Detroit backfield, but he can’t do much against a stacked box.
As for the Bears, we kind of know what we are getting with them. Mitch Trubisky will struggle until he’s in a no-huddle situation. He will flash the ability that made him the third pick in the draft. Then the Bears will go away from no-huddle and Trubisky will struggle. The Bears will rely heavily on Allen Robinson and not generate a running game, but Robinson will give them two big plays downfield catching the ball over some defensive back and that will be enough.
By the way, the Bears and Lions played a few weeks ago. The Bears won 20-13. Even if we gave the Lions the requisite three points for home-field advantage, the spread should be around four or 4.5.
Buffalo Bills +7 (-135) over DALLAS COWBOYS
Under 44.5
If the Bills are in a football game, we are taking the under. That’s just how it is. They have a very good defense but their offense can struggle against better opponents.
The Bills bet is strictly because of the matchup. Tre’Davious White isn’t Stephon Gilmore, but he’s mightly close so he can matchup with Amari Cooper. When Cooper is contained the Cowboys passing game struggles. Michael Gallup and Randall Cobb need to step up because Dallas gets nothing from its tight ends. It’s not going to be easy to run the ball against the Bills front.
The question is whether or not the Bills offense can move the ball against the Dallas defense that played well against the Patriots last week. Josh Allen has been up and down all year. The Cowboys would be smart to force Allen into longer throws since he’s struggled with them all year. Is this a Cole Beasley revenge game? I never thought I would type that sentence.
The Cowboys are coming off a crushing loss on a shot week. The Patriots game was extremely physical. It’s not a great situation for them because Buffalo likes to play ugly games and they can put pressure on Dak Prescott with Ed Oliver and company. Prescott is going to have to find a way to win the game.
We are buying the book because Dallas is going to win. The underdog and the under go together like mashed potatoes and gravy — there’s the shameless Thanksgiving food plug. Dallas wins, but by less than a touchdown.
New Orleans Saints -6.5 over ATLANTA FALCONS
Over 49.5
Three away teams picked. Two of those away teams as road favorites. Yuck. It’s gross. It’s not my M.O. when picking games, but what else am I supposed to do?
The Falcons upset the Saints a few weeks ago in New Orleans so they aren’t sneaking up on New Orleans. I understand if you want to take the home dog in thi situation. The Saints haven’t dominated two weeks in a row. Buy the half point and go forward.
I think this is the game where the Saints wake up. The Falcons defense isn’t any good — take the over in this game because life is too short to bet the under in the final game on Thanksgiving — and their offense is stop and go. Atlanta just got worked by the Bucs on Sunday. The Bucs aren’t very good. Neither is Atlanta.
The Saints should be able to use Alvin Kamara out of the backfield. It’s about time they give Michael Thomas a break. He has 100 receptions and it’s not even Thanksgiving. This is a revenge game for the Saints. They’ll get right.
Two Team Six-Point Teaser
New Orleans Saints -0.5 over ATLANTA FALCONS
DALLAS COWBOYS -0.5 over Buffalo Bills
Here’s a nice little hedge for the Bills-Cowboys game. As I said, the Cowboys are winning but not by more than a touchdown. The Saints are winning — hopefully by more than a touchdown.
Three Team 10-Point Teaser
Chicago Bears +7.5 over DETROIT LIONS
Buffalo Bills +16.5 over DALLAS COWBOYS
ATLANTA FALCONS +16.5 over New Orleans Saints
It’s Thanksgiving. Let’s get nuts. Put in teasers that go against some other bets and try and middle the games with an increased spread. The Bears are now getting points. Even if they lose, they won’t lose by more than a touchdown. The Bills and Falcons are getting almost 17 points. That’s a lot of points!
Good luck this Thanksgiving.
2019 Record: 39-39
2018 Record: 59-59-2
2017 Record: 43-29
