Welcome to this week's NFL talkboard. For those of you who have stumbled upon it for the first time, this is the dedicated place on the sportblog where people can talk about American football. As in the regular season, we have a predictions competition for the play-offs, the only difference being that now you have to make a selection for every game.
More than 100 people lodged their predictions for the wildcard round but not one picked all four games correctly. Kudos, though, to the 11 readers who went out on a limb and backed the Seahawks to beat the Saints. Let's see if any are brave enough to take them again this week ...
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Both of this season's meetings between these two were decided by a field goal. In fact, five of the last seven meetings between these two were decided by a field goal. They know each other better than Troy Polamalu knows his hairdresser and the difference in talent levels is negligible. Both teams have mid-ranking offences and dominating defences. The Steelers were best in the league during the regular season when it came to points allowed, giving up just 14.5 per game, but the Ravens were third in the same category on 16.9. Both teams average 1.3 interceptions per game.
"The team that wins this game is going to be the most violent team," claimed the Steelers defensive lineman Chris Hoke, but while he is right to anticipate a brutal encounter my suspicion is that the key battle will be between the quarterbacks. Ben Roethlisberger has won the last six times he has faced the Ravens (he was suspended for the defeat in week four). The margin of victory will be skinny, but I think he will get Pittsburgh home.
Steelers to win
Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons
The New Orleans Saints proved in week 16 that the Falcons can be beaten at the Georgia Dome and the Packers themselves very nearly overcame them there in week 12, losing 20‑17 in a game that might have worked out very differently had Aaron Rodgers not coughed up a fumble at the one-yard line in the second quarter. That was the game's only turnover.
Green Bay's running game was so feeble then that Rodgers himself was their leading rusher, but James Starks's break-out performance against Philadelphia in the wildcard round suggests that might have changed. His fresh legs will be an asset against a Falcons defence still carrying a number of injuries after their bye. Atlanta's Michael Turner, by contrast, has slowed down significantly. He ran for 110 yards and 4.8 per carry against Green Bay, but has averaged less than 3.6 per carry over the five games since.
It's enough to have me leaning towards the Pack, or at least it would be were it not for the fact that Green Bay are on a short week, and Atlanta have had 13 days off. At the end stage of the season, that counts for a lot.
Falcons to win
Seattle Seahawks @ Chicago Bears
The bookies make the Seahawks 10-point underdogs, but after last week it would be foolish to dismiss them. They may not have the benefit of the 12th Man this weekend but they do have the knowledge that they have already beaten the Bears on their own turf once this season, 23-20 back in week six. Then there is the fact that the Chicago Bears 2quarterback Jay Cutler is making his play-off debut. Since 2003, only five of 24 quarterbacks have won their play-off debuts.
That same Mr Cutler was sacked six times during the teams' meeting earlier this season and if Seattle can get after him again, then they certainly have a chance. But with the extra week off to prepare I have to believe the Bears will have a better gameplan this time round, most likely one that involves giving Matt Forte a good deal more than the eight carries he got back then.
Bears to win
New York Jets @ New England Patriots
I really want to take the Jets here, mostly because I've only just realised that I'm going with the home team in the other games. But while I'm certain this will be closer than the 45-3 rout the last time these two met in Foxborough, there is no way to justify taking Mark Sanchez over Tom Brady on a cold night in Boston. Now, let's go eat a goddamn snack.
Patriots to win
