All aboard the Rob Gronkowski party bus. And maybe pick yourself up a little Gronk-themed reading material on the way. The best weekend of the NFL season has arrived; that ‘Goldilocks’ moment when the balance of quantity and quality is just right. Four games, spread across two days, featuring seven of the very best teams in the league. And Carolina.
If watching the games is not entertainment enough, then it is also time for round two of our Pick The Playoffs contest. Just 14 out of the 148 people who entered last week managed to predict every Wild Card game correctly. Well done to aalipour, Berkeley2013, Besd1, charliepanayi, donwendy2, Dsizzle2013, EscargotMyCargo, Jacatan, NawfulLanger, PhunckyTimes, Pickelhaube1914, reddevilWA, shadow76, ShadowWarrior, simon57 and wyne111.
Full standings will be up in the comments section shortly. Until then, here comes our look at this week’s games:
Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots (Saturday 4.35pm ET/9.35pm GMT)
The Ravens barely scraped into the playoffs. Third-place finishers in the AFC North, they needed a fourth-quarter comeback to overcome a Cleveland team that was giving an undrafted rookie quarterback, Connor Shaw, his first professional start in week 17. Seven days previously, Baltimore had suffered a comprehensive defeat in Houston.
And yet now they are being touted as serious candidates to defeat the Patriots and reach the AFC title game. Why? Because they have already shown they know how to win postseason games in New England. This will be the fourth playoff meeting between these teams at Gillette Stadium since 2010. Baltimore have prevailed in two out of three so far. Their one loss, in January 2012, came by a margin of three points, after Billy Cundiff missed a game-tying 32-yard field goal with seconds left to play.
In fact, Baltimore have an extraordinary record of punching above their weight at this time of year regardless of the opposition. Their 10 playoff road wins are tied with Green Bay for most in NFL history, a statistic rendered all the more remarkable by the fact that the Ravens were only founded in 1996. Given that seven of those victories were achieved with the team’s present quarterback, Joe Flacco, under center, such success cannot be considered an incidental detail.
With Dean Pees, who previously coached in New England, serving as their defensive co-ordinator, Baltimore also have a clearer insight than most into the tendencies of Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. On the other hand, the fact remains that they are the weaker team. New England were 6-3 during the regular season against opponents who finished with winning records. Baltimore were 2-6. So you can call this pick a hunch, and nothing more. Ravens to win
Carolina Panthers @ Seattle Seahawks (Saturday 8.15pm ET/Sunday 1.15 am GMT)
Carolina have won five in a row, giving up an average of just 11.8 points per game. In the Wild Card round, against Arizona, they set a postseason record by restricting their opponents to 78 net yards. Defense wins championships, so they say. Surely a team playing so well on that side of the ball must have a puncher’s chance of reaching the NFC Championship Game?
Then again, perhaps not. Because anybody who watched that triumph over the Cardinals will know that Carolina still made extremely hard work of things despite their opponents’ complete inability to move the ball. The Panthers trailed at the half, and only took a two-score lead after Arizona’s kickoff returner, Ted Ginn Jr, coughed up possession inside his own five-yard line.
Cam Newton was fortunate to finish the day with just a pair of turnovers, after having at least two interceptions slip through the hands of Arizona’s defenders. Seattle will not be so forgiving. Their defense has been even better than the Panthers’ of late, limiting opponents to an average of 6.5 points over the last six games. Unlike Arizona, they will also have a real NFL quarterback under center, not to mention the most effective running game in the league. Seahawks to win
Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers (Sunday 1.05pm ET/6.05pm GMT)
Not since the incident in Mrs O’Leary’s Barn has a calf come under such intense scrutiny. Aaron Rodgers injured the muscle in his left leg during the Packers’ week 17 victory over Detroit, and fans have been anxiously awaiting updates on his recovery ever since.
The quarterback still had not returned to practice on Wednesday, and while both Rodgers and his head coach, Mike McCarthy, have been consistent in saying that he will play against Dallas, there is understandable concern over the extent to which this injury will affect his performance. He played through it pretty well during that victory over the Lions, but his prolonged recovery period since suggests that this was not a minor strain.
Even with Rodgers at 100%, this would be a tough matchup. The Cowboys were 8-0 on the road in 2014, and a DeMarco Murray-led running game gives them the ability to keep the Packers’ explosive offense on the sideline. Tony Romo, meanwhile, posted an even better quarterback rating than Rodgers during the regular season, earning consideration as a possible league MVP.
But the Packers have been stout against the run since moving Clay Matthews inside to middle linebacker, giving up just 86.4 yards per game on the ground during their last eight games, as compared to 153.5 during the first eight. And they are unbeaten at Lambeau Field. As hard as it might be to R-E-L-A-X right now, their team should still make it through. Packers to win
Indianapolis Colts @ Denver Broncos (Sunday 4.40pm ET/9.40pm GMT)
Peyton Manning has already been reunited with his former team once this season. Denver beat Indy 31-24 in week one at Mile High Stadium, but much has changed since then. For one thing, Broncos tight end Julius Thomas, who caught three touchdown passes in that game, has all but disappeared from view – alternately sidelined or heavily restricted by an ankle injury for most of the second-half of the season.
His absence has had a notable impact on Manning’s production in the passing game, and Denver can only be encouraged to hear Thomas tell reporters this week that he had benefited from the team’s bye. But whilst it is inevitable that the media focus going into this game will fall predominantly on the two teams’ passing games, much will depend on their respective success in moving the ball on the ground.
Both Manning and his Colts successor, Andrew Luck, struggled in December, whereas Broncos running back CJ Anderson rushed for seven touchdowns in four games. Indianapolis had no such reliable tailback to lean on after Ahmad Bradshaw went down injured, but the emergence of Dan ‘Boom’ Herron during their Wild Card win over Cincinnati was a game-changer, providing not only a boost to the rushing attack but also a crucial outlet for Luck when he dropped back to pass.
The Broncos remain the better team, quite simply boasting better players at most starting spots. But just as in the other AFC matchup, I find myself tempted by the upset. As patchy as Luck’s December was, it has been some time since Manning looked as sharp as the Colts quarterback did on Wild Card weekend. Colts to win
