Can we really be here already? Just three games remain in the NFL season (unless you’re counting the Pro Bowl … which we’re not), and frankly they have their work cut out living up to the highly entertaining playoff match-ups that we’ve seen so far.
Both of the top seeds are still in the running, and favoured by the bookies to meet in the Super Bowl. That has happened only twice in the last 20 years, but the most recent occasion was last February.
Before we get to the action on the field, let us all recognise the fine work of aojigbo, barutanseijin, Boredwiththeusa, brendanmac,ciuffoleo, cloneoaf, fp701, garuc, ITLaw23, James Selwood, Joseph Brolly, MontgomeryBrewster, SmokeyMoose, Steve Mansfield, Taylor77, themagicman, wiakywbfatw, WiReDeVil and zoomster – each of whom picked every game correctly last weekend. Most of all, though, please doff your digital caps to EscargotMyCargo, who is the only person to successfully predict all eight games in the postseason so far.
Overall standings for our Pick The Playoffs contest will be posted below the line shortly. Until then, here’s is our look at this week’s games:
Green Bay Packers @ Seattle Seahawks (Sunday 3.05pm ET/8.05pm GMT)
This season began with the Packers and Seahawks squaring off at CenturyLink Field. For one of the two teams, it will end in the exact same way. Seattle trounced Green Bay 36-16 in that first meeting in early September, but a great deal has changed in the interim.
As the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel reported this week, Packers head coach Mike McCarthy spent many hours with his defensive coordinator, Dom Capers, last August, drawing up a scheme to thwart Seattle’s attack. So anxious were they not to give away the subtleties of their new ‘Quad’ formation (a variation on the 4-3), that they never used it in preseason, and only had their players practice it four times behind closed doors.
That approach backfired spectacularly, with Green Bay’s players seemingly more confused than their opponents by the new defensive calls. The ‘Quad’ was quietly dropped from the playbook after four games, with the Packers off to an unsteady start at 2-2. They won 12 of the next 14 games to finish as second seeds in the NFC.
Seattle would also endure a mixed start to the season, losing three of their next five games amidst reports of locker room disharmony. Percy Harvin had been the Seahawks’ leading receiver against Green Bay, making seven catches for 59 yards, but a month-and-a-half later was traded to the Jets. Not everyone agreed with that move at the time, but Seattle have kicked on just fine without him.
The Seahawks’ offense remains a high-functioning unit with Russell Wilson under center, and whilst Green Bay’s ‘Quad’ experiment has been abandoned, the Packers will still need to demonstrate that they can devise an alternative plan for slowing these opponents down. Marshawn Lynch gouged them for 110 yards and two touchdowns last time around.
But the marquee matchup takes place on the other side of the ball. Green Bay had the No1-ranked scoring offense this season, firing their way to 30.1 points per game. For the second year running, Seattle had the top-ranked scoring defense, giving up an average of just 15.9.
The Seahawks succeeded in bottling up Eddie Lacy and the Packers running game in week one, putting the onus on Aaron Rodgers to beat them through the air. He struggled to do so, completing only 23 of 33 passes for 189 yards, one touchdown and one interception. His 5.7 yards per passing attempt was a long way down on his eventual season average of 8.4. Notably, he did not attempt a single throw in the direction of any team-mate covered by Richard Sherman.
Rodgers will need to be better for the Packers to have a chance of success. Given his calf injury, that seems like a tall order. As impressive as he was against Dallas in the divisional round, the limitations on his mobility were still apparent. And although Rodgers began practicing a little earlier this week than last, his condition is not thought to be substantially improved.
Dallas have shown this season that it is possible to beat Seattle at CenturyLink Field. But to do so they required an exceptional display on both sides of the ball. Green Bay are capable of such a performance, but to define it as the most likely outcome, at a time when their most important player is ailing, would be a very bold call indeed. Seahawks to win
Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots (Sunday 6.40pm ET/11.40pm GMT)
A great many words were written about the passing of torches in the wake of Indianapolis’s victory over Denver last weekend. Andrew Luck had defeated Peyton Manning, the man who preceded him as Colts quarterback, and who just happens to be one of the greatest ever to play the position. In narrative terms, it was an easy sell.
Although he threw a pair of interceptions, Luck had also played extremely well. Both picks came on long third-down heaves, shifting field position about as effectively as a punt might have done. He otherwise completed 27 of 41 attempts for 265 yards and two touchdowns, and crucially avoided getting sacked – despite being hurried on 15 out of 45 dropbacks, according to ESPN.
It was Luck’s second strong playoff performance in as many weeks, following his dismantling of the Cincinnati Bengals on Wild Card weekend. For a player who had previously underachieved in the postseason, going 1-2 over his first two years in the league, whilst throwing more interceptions (eight) than touchdowns (six), this was a significant step.
But the challenge facing him his team in New England this Sunday is of a different order entirely. As good as Luck was against the Broncos, Manning was awful – whether that be a factor of his age or the quad injury that he had been playing through for several weeks. It is hard to imagine the Colts restricting New England to fewer than 20 points.
Indy, indeed, have given up more than twice that number in all three of their meetings with the Patriots since Luck took over from Manning in 2012. Most recently, they lost 42-20 at home to these opponents in week 11. From an individual standpoint, this was actually Luck’s best game against the Patriots so far in his career – as he threw for 303 yards and a pair of touchdowns. But the Colts’ defense was gouged for 201 rushing yards and four touchdowns by Jonas Gray.
That was the tailback’s second-ever start for New England and he has not been granted a whole lot of carries since, earning a place in Bill Belichick’s doghouse by showing up late for practice a few days later. But regardless of who starts in his place on Sunday, the likelihood is that we will see New England run the ball early and often, grinding down the Colts’ modest front seven and keeping the ball out of Luck’s hands.
Not that Belichick has anything to envy from the young quarterback. Tom Brady is only a year younger than Manning, at 37, and after the Patriots’ 41-14 mauling by Kansas City in September it was widely suggested that he might be past his peak. His performances since have demonstrated that he is anything but.
Against Baltimore, Brady demonstrated yet again that he is a man to rely on when the chips are down. He was instrumental in guiding his team back twice from 14-point deficits against the Ravens, and his final touchdown pass, to Brandon LaFell, was perfectly thrown.
With that score, he surpassed Joe Montana as the player with the most postseason touchdown passes in NFL history. Now he has his sights set on equaling the San Francisco player’s record (shared with Terry Bradshaw) of four Super Bowl wins. I expect him to take a big step towards achieving that goal on Sunday. For the final one, we will have to wait and see. Patriots to win
