The data backs up what Kansas City Chiefs fans have known for a long, long time. Patrick Mahomes is the most valuable quarterback in the NFL.
Mahomes and Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts have passed the top odds for league’s most valuable player award back and forth throughout the back end of the 2022 season. Now that a reported shoulder sprain seems destined to cut Hurts’ campaign short, it feels like a predetermined result that the man with the $500 million contract will add his second MVP award to an already distinguished resume.
Even a rejuvenated Hurts, or the players directly behind him — Tua Tagovailoa, Joe Burrow, Geno Smith somehow — would have a difficult time catching Mahomes in the advanced stats rankings. The Kansas City star hasn’t just built his castle in 2022 but dug a moat to separate him from the very good quarterbacks trying to usurp his claim.
There’s plenty of intrigue further down the ranks. Both Trevor Lawrence and Jared Goff have overcome uneven 2021 seasons and awful starts to 2022 to lead their teams into the playoff hunt as top 10 passers. Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers, well, still kinda stink. And Zach Wilson has been slightly less embarrassing in his role as the Jets’ fill-in starter. For now.
What else do advanced stats tell us about this year’s starting quarterbacks?
We know the data is limited — but it does give us a pretty good idea of who has risen to the occasion this fall. Let’s see which quarterbacks are great and who truly stinks through seven weeks. These numbers are from the NFL’s Next Gen Stats model but compiled by the extremely useful RBSDM.com, run by The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin and Sebastian Carl.
Using expected points added (EPA, the value a quarterback adds on any given play compared to the average NFL result) along with completion percentage over expected (CPOE, the percent of his passes that are caught that aren’t expected to be in typical NFL situations) gives us a scatter plot of 33 quarterbacks (minimum 224 plays) that looks like this:
The size of each dot represents the amount of plays they’ve been a part of. A place in the top right means you’re above average in both EPA and CPOE. A place in the bottom left suggests things have gone horribly wrong (i.e. Baker Mayfield).
There are a lot of players taking up the creamy middle ground and some strange outliers, making it tough to separate this year’s average quarterbacks into tiers. Here’s my crack at it, but full details follow in the text below.
Officially in his own stratsophere
1. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs, 0.189 EPA+CPOE composite
Another year in Kansas City, another highlight reel filled with ludicrous plays made to look casual. Mahomes is special.
Challengers to Mahomes' throne of varying degrees (and injuries
2. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles, 0.155 EPA+CPOE composite
3. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins, 0.155
4. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills, 0.139
5. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks, 0.135
6. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals, 0.133
7. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys, 0.132
8. Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers, 0.130
Tagovailoa’s slide continued, and while Hurts threw two interceptions last week his three rushing touchdowns were enough to vault him into second place. Catching Mahomes was always a tough task, but now he’s got to do it while dealing with a reported shoulder injury. Good luck.
Prescott’s place in the top five was tenuous and his inefficient, then disastrous second half against the Jaguars dropped him down the standings. After watching the Cowboys’ non-CeeDee Lamb wideouts struggle, Jerry Jones chase for Odell Beckham Jr. may only intensify, even if he’s publicly downplaying the suggestion.
The numbers might need more calibrating (but Trevor Lawrence and Jared Goff are actually good)
9. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars, 0.105 EPA+CPOE composite
10. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions, 0.104
11. Jacoby Brissett, Cleveland Browns, 0.103
12. Andy Dalton, New Orleans Saints, 0.098
13. Daniel Jones, New York Giants, 0.088
Lawrence is looking like a legitimate franchise quarterback. His Jaguars control their own destiny in the AFC South, which is wild when you consider they started the season 2-6. Goff has an even crazier rise, going from Matthew Stafford trade salary dump to top 10 quarterback. His Lions have gone from 1-6 to 7-7 and have a reasonable path to 10 wins and a playoff spot.
The guys you sort of trust
14. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens, 0.084 EPA+CPOE composite
15. Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings, 0.084
16. Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans, 0.083
17. Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders, 0.080
18. Justin Fields, Chicago Bears, 0.076
19. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers, 0.074
20. Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 0.072
21. Marcus Mariota, Atlanta Falcons, 0.072
22. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers, 0.064
2022’s middle class features a ton of familiar names. Some, like Derek Carr, are right about where we expected. Others, like Justin Herbert and Aaron Rodgers, are much lower than they’d like to be. But Kirk Cousins, after some early season struggles, has tuned up his game (885 passing yards the last two weeks. Thanks to huge deficits, but still) and is looking more like his old self. Justin Fields remains the bright spot in the Bears offense and each week it seems he stands on the precipice of injury. Please, Chicago, take care of your franchise QB.
Where expectations, grand and modest, come to die
23. Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers, 0.054 EPA+CPOE composite
24. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals, 0.051
25. Taylor Heinicke, Washington Commanders, 0.049
26. Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos, 0.042
27. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams, 0.041
28. Matt Ryan, Indianapolis Colts, 0.039
29. Mac Jones, New England Patriots, 0.032
Jones had a matchup against the league’s worst passing defense in Week 15 and completed 13 of 31 passes. We’ll remember the Raiders game for its completely bonkers and hilarious ending, but Mac Jones getting stiffarmed into oblivion has overshadowed the fact Mac Jones was pretty awful all around Sunday. Could it be time for another Bailey Zappe appearance in New England?
Bad at professional football
30. Davis Mills, Houston Texans, 0.007 EPA+CPOE composite
31. Carson Wentz, Washington Commanders, 0.007
32. Zach Wilson, New York Jets, 0.003
Wilson rose from -0.005 and into the black by looking competent for stretches against the Lions. He’ll get the chance to start Thursday vs. the streaking Jaguars and their leaky secondary with Mike White injured and could regain his starting spot for a Jets team on the periphery of the playoff hunt.
BAKER MAYFIELD
33. Baker Mayfield, Los Angeles Rams, -0.024 EPA+CPOE composite
Mayfield played exactly to his season standard in Green Bay, leaving his composite stats to stand perfectly still in his second game as a Ram. Ah well, Week 14 was still one heck of a performance.
