Dak Prescott is throwing interceptions at a career-worst rate. He’s had five since returning to the Dallas Cowboys’ lineup in Week 7.
But he’s been pretty good in every other facet of the game — including letting his running backs take over — and the Cowboys are 4-1 since then. Prescott is averaging more than 250 passing yards per game and has more touchdowns than turnovers and sacks combined. That’s led him to rise up the advanced stats leaderboard … all the way into third place thanks to a small sample size and some underwhelming opponents.
Prescott will almost certainly backslide at some point, but it might not come in the next three weeks with games against the Indianapolis Colts (who have a decent passing defense, but not top 10), Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars (who do not) on the schedule. Would that be an accurate reflection on the Cowboy quarterback? Probably not, but it wouldn’t hurt to keep building him up in what’s been a more trying season than his numbers suggest.
Other movers this week include Trevor Lawrence (up four spots), Derek Carr (same) and Russell Wilson (down three spots and barely a top 30 quarterback). What else have we learned over 12 weeks of the 2022 NFL season?
We know the data is limited — but it does give us a pretty good idea of who has risen to the occasion this fall. Let’s see which quarterbacks are great and who truly stinks through seven weeks. These numbers are from the NFL’s Next Gen Stats model but compiled by the extremely useful RBSDM.com, run by The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin and Sebastian Carl.
Using expected points added (EPA, the value a quarterback adds on any given play compared to the average NFL result) along with completion percentage over expected (CPOE, the percent of his passes that are caught that aren’t expected to be in typical NFL situations) gives us a scatter plot of 34 quarterbacks (minimum 176 plays) that looks like this:
The size of each dot represents the amount of plays they’ve been a part of. A place in the top right means you’re above average in both EPA and CPOE. A place in the bottom left suggests things have gone horribly wrong (i.e. Baker Mayfield).
There are a lot of players taking up the creamy middle ground and some strange outliers, making it tough to separate this year’s average quarterbacks into tiers. Here’s my crack at it, but full details follow in the text below.
1
Tua Tagovailoa, still dealing
1. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins, 0.218 EPA+CPOE composite
Tagovailoa wasn’t especially challenged by the Houston Texans and threw only three passes (that counted) in the second half. He still managed to throw for 299 yards, though four sacks managed to ding his overall numbers.
2
Patrick Mahomes, still your MVP betting favorite
2. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs, 0.187 EPA+CPOE composite
Mahomes also backslid slightly, thanks in part to a no-look interception in the end zone that he almost certainly should not have attempted.
when no-look passes go wrong pic.twitter.com/aq9FgU7X3F
— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) November 27, 2022
It looked cool for a minute, though.
3
Viable MVP candidates (and Jimmy Garoppolo)
3. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys, 0.149 EPA+CPOE composite
4. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks, 0.149
5. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills, 0.145
6. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles, 0.140
7. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals, 0.135
8. Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers, 0.130
Burrow kept cooking last week, beating the Titans without Ja’Marr Chase or Joe Mixon available. Hurts helped the Eagles crush the Packers on the ground with 157 rushing yards.
Allen’s red zone woes continued (five interceptions inside an opponents’ 20 in his last five games), helping add to the Bills’ midseason malaise. Garoppolo isn’t instrumental to the Niners success, but it’s worth noting he’s playing the most efficient football of his career thanks to a significantly reduced turnover rate.
4
Good enough to win (if their running backs are feeling it)
9. Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans, 0.107 EPA+CPOE composite
10. Jacoby Brissett, Cleveland Browns, 0.105
11. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars, 0.099
12. Daniel Jones, New York Giants, 0.097
13. Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders, 0.091
Brissett went out a winner in his final start before Deshaun Watson returns from suspension following more than 20 accusations of sexual misconduct and what the NFL described as “predatory behavior.” He did well enough to earn a high-leverage backup job next season, even if he wasn’t entirely reliable in late game situations. Lawrence approaches the top 10 after his best game as a pro in a 28-27 win over the Baltimore Ravens. Jones, Tannehill, Brissett and Carr all winding up here is a testament to the ongoing importance of a proper running game.
5
A weird mix of rising starters and 2023 backups
14. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens, 0.089 EPA+CPOE composite
15. Andy Dalton, New Orleans Saints, 0.087
16. Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 0.085
17. Marcus Mariota, Atlanta Falcons, 0.078
18. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers, 0.077
19. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions, 0.076
Jackson is suffering in an offense where he’s forced to rely on Josh Oliver and Desean Jackson in big moments. Herbert is suffering in an offense where he rarely has time to allow routes to develop downfield. Dalton and Mariota do not belong here so if you’re looking for a reason to doubt advanced stats, there you go.
6
Capable of being better than this (mostly)
20. Justin Fields, Chicago Bears, 0.069 EPA+CPOE composite
21. Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings, 0.062
22. Mac Jones, New England Patriots, 0.058
23. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers, 0.056
24. Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers, 0.056
25. Matt Ryan, Indianapolis Colts, 0.052
26. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals, 0.051
27. Taylor Heinicke, Washington Commanders, 0.049
This is a weird mix of old and young quarterbacks. Any of them can win you a game in 2022. Relying on them in the postseason, however, is a bit dodgy.
7
Real gross. Just awful stuff.
28. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams, 0.041 EPA+CPOE composite
29. Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos, 0.035
Stafford and Wilson have each seen their receiving corps ravaged by injury. That doesn’t fully explain why they’ve been so bad in 2022. Stafford has his own injury concerns and a deficient offensive line to work through. Wilson, on the other hand, is just sort of awful.
8
Guys who've been rightfully benched
30. Cooper Rush, Dallas Cowboys, 0.013 EPA+CPOE composite
31. Carson Wentz, Washington Commanders, 0.007
32. Davis Mills, Houston Texans, -0.002
33. Zach Wilson, New York Jets, -0.005
Wilson has started 20 games for the Jets and has zero three-touchdown games. Mike White has started four games for the Jets and has two.
9
BAKER MAYFIELD
34. Baker Mayfield, Carolina Panthers, -0.027 EPA+CPOE composite
Here’s how the rest of Carolina’s QBs stack up:
- Sam Darnold: 0.179 composite
- PJ Walker: -0.015
- Mayfield: -0.027
Being the worst Carolina quarterback is a damning insult in 2022. Mayfield’s job market next spring will be grim.
