The Dallas Cowboys are staking their claim as the best team in the NFC. While a swarming defense and Tony Pollard’s rise as an elite playmaker are undeniable pieces of this ascension, the most important factor may be the man behind center.
Dak Prescott has shaken off an ugly start to his 2022 season — a terrible showing against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 1, which included the broken thumb that cost him five games — to reclaim his place at the center of the Cowboys’ offensive universe. Sunday’s game was Prescott’s best of the season, a 22-of-25 performance that saw him find the end zone twice and effectively sit out the fourth quarter of a 40-3 win.
That’s propelled him from 17th to eighth in this week’s quarterback rankings, leapfrogging players like Tom Brady and Lamar Jackson in the process. He’s recorded a passing rating over 100.0 in three of his four games since returning to the active lineup. Dallas, unsurprisingly, is 3-0 in those contests.
He’s still got plenty to prove, but as of now — roughly halfway between opening night and Super Bowl 57 — Prescott is a top 10 quarterback. Let’s see who’s keeping him company after 11 weeks of the 2022 season.
We know the data is limited — but it does give us a pretty good idea of who has risen to the occasion this fall. Let’s see which quarterbacks are great and who truly stinks through seven weeks. These numbers are from the NFL’s Next Gen Stats model but compiled by the extremely useful RBSDM.com, run by The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin and Sebastian Carl.
Using expected points added (EPA, the value a quarterback adds on any given play compared to the average NFL result) along with completion percentage over expected (CPOE, the percent of his passes that are caught that aren’t expected to be in typical NFL situations) gives us a scatter plot of 35 quarterbacks (minimum 160 plays) that looks like this:
The size of each dot represents the amount of plays they’ve been a part of. A place in the top right means you’re above average in both EPA and CPOE. A place in the bottom left suggests things have gone horribly wrong (i.e. Baker Mayfield).
There are a lot of players taking up the creamy middle ground and some strange outliers, making it tough to separate this year’s average quarterbacks into tiers. Here’s my crack at it, but full details follow in the text below.
1
Still Tua
1. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins, 0.227 EPA+CPOE composite
Miami’s bye week preserved Tagovailoa’s sparkling numbers. Now he gets the Texans and their 29th-ranked defense at home in Week 12. Barring disaster, he’ll be here next week, too.
2
Still Mahomes
2. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs, 0.191 EPA+CPOE composite
Mahomes’ number rose after yet another stunning comeback win in Week 11. His rally against the Los Angeles Chargers marked his 13th fourth quarter comeback in four-plus seasons as an NFL starter.
3
The rest of the MVP frontrunners
3. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills, 0.153 EPA+CPOE composite
4. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks, 0.149
5. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals, 0.142
6. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles, 0.141
Allen has faded from his spot as preseason MVP favorite thanks in part to a mid-season slump (something that may become a trend in Buffalo), but remains very, very good. Hurts struggled with the Colts but eventually carried his team to victory. Burrow keeps thriving, even with Ja’Marr Chase injured.
4
Dak Prescott and former Brady backups
7. Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers, 0.137 EPA+CPOE composite
8. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys, 0.129
9. Jacoby Brissett, Cleveland Browns, 0.121
Garoppolo has ensured he’ll be a valued piece of the 2023 free agent class by leading the 49ers back to prosperity — something that was very much in question after he Orlovsky-ed himself out the back of the end zone in a Week 3 loss to the Denver Broncos. San Francisco wins games when he has a minimal impact and his performance hinges wildly on the run-after-catch capabilities of his receivers, but a declining turnover rate suggests this could be Handsome James’ most efficient season yet.
5
Kinda trustworthy
10. Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans, 0.106 EPA+CPOE composite
11. Daniel Jones, New York Giants, 0.104
12. Andy Dalton, New Orleans Saints, 0.098
13. Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 0.089
14. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens, 0.088
15. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars, 0.087
16. Marcus Mariota, Atlanta Falcons, 0.087
Tannehill’s efficiency could jump if Treylon Burks can look as good as he did against the Packers moving forward. Mariota’s could drop after losing Kyle Pitts for the season, but it’s not like he’d leaned too heavily on his young tight end anyway for … some reason. Jackson has been stymied by his depleted receiving corps, so just getting into the top 15 with Devin Duvernay and Demarcus Robinson as his top wideouts feels like an accomplishment.
6
Half rising, half fading
17. Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders, 0.079 EPA+CPOE composite
18. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers, 0.078
19. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions, 0.073
20. Justin Fields, Chicago Bears, 0.071
Since Week 7, Fields’ 0.147 composite ranks eighth-best among NFL quarterbacks, which shows not only how good he’s been but how grim things were before the Bears began utilizing his speed in designed runs. Herbert hasn’t seized his potential thanks in large part to a weak offensive line, wideout injuries and a passing game forced to prioritize short range passes. Goff is operating above expectations, which is nice.
7
The disappointment tier
21. Matt Ryan, Indianapolis Colts, 0.058 EPA+CPOE composite
22. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers, 0.056
23. Taylor Heinicke, Washington Commanders, 0.054
24. Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers, 0.054
25. Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings, 0.050
26. Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos, 0.043
27. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams, 0.043
28. Mac Jones, New England Patriots, 0.043
29. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals, 0.042
Yeah, it’s bad. Stafford and Rodgers haven’t looked like themselves and have no one to throw to. Murray’s contract extension currently looks like an awful idea. Cousins continues to fall apart in big games vs. the NFC East. Wilson … ugh.
8
Bad, but not actively hurting their teams
30. Cooper Rush, Dallas Cowboys, 0.014 EPA+CPOE composite
31. Joe Flacco, New York Jets, 0.012
32. Carson Wentz, Washington Commanders, 0.007
Ideally, none of these guys would start another game in 2022. Of course, that may not be the case because the guy in front of Flacco, well …
9
Actively hurting their teams
33. Davis Mills, Houston Texans, -0.001 EPA+CPOE composite
34. Zach Wilson, New York Jets, -0.005
35. Baker Mayfield, Carolina Panthers, -0.027
Oh hey, there’s Zach Wilson. Gross.
