We’ve got two weeks of data relating to NFL offenses and the quarterbacks who run them. Let’s overreact.
This limited sample size creates an interesting, if not especially accurate, baseline for QB performance as the 2022 regular season rolls forward. While the league’s best and worst quarterbacks have been obvious, it can be difficult separating the up-and-down play of veterans like Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady or emerging passers like Kyler Murray from a deep pool of players.
Here’s how we’re going to try; by using the league’s advanced stats metrics to better understand who has brought the most value to the position through Week 2. We’ll use numbers to separate these gunslingers into tiers in hopes of better understanding where each team stands.
The data for these tiers comes from the NFL’s Next Gen Stats model but is provided by The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin and his increasingly useful and informative RBSDM.com. Using expected points added (EPA, the value a quarterback adds on any given play compared to the average NFL result) along with completion percentage over expected (CPOE, the percent of his passes that are caught that aren’t expected to be in typical NFL situations) gives us a scatter plot of 33 quarterbacks (minimum 32 plays, thus excluding Jimmy Garoppolo) that looks like this:
A place in the top right means you’re above average in both EPA and CPOE. A place in the bottom left suggests things have gone horribly wrong.
We can break those results into tier to get a better understanding of who sits where in the early season pecking order.
OK, let’s start at the top.
1
The elite QBs you expected
1. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs, 0.255 EPA+CPOE composite
2. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills, 0.250
Mahomes eked out the top spot by virtue of seven touchdowns, zero turnovers, and only one sack. More impressively, he’s gotten it done without Tyreek Hill.
2
Florida men rising to the occasion
3. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins, 0.202 EPA+CPOE composite
4. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars, 0.185
Tagovailoa rose from eighth to third in these rankings, which is what a 467-yard, six touchdown day will do for you. Lawrence went from 14th to fourth after the best afternoon of his pro career as well. Time will tell if they can keep this pace but, for now, they’re top five QBs (in a very small sample size).
3
Really good quarterbacks (and two journeyman backups because it's a small sample size)
5. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens, 0.180 EPA+CPOE composite
6. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers, 0.173
7. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles, 0.154
8. Jacoby Brissett, Cleveland Browns, 0.153
9. Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos, 0.147
10. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks, 0.130
OK, let’s just address the flaws in these ratings. The last three names on this list are surprising entries on a top 10 list — except for Wilson, who is usually pretty good but currently bad enough that sportsbooks are writing off his MVP hopes entirely. He’s coming off a game in which he completed only 45 percent of his passes vs. the Houston Texans, but his EPA number is great so, here he is.
Brissett has avoided sacks, run effectively, completed two-thirds of his passes and still belongs nowhere near the top third of this list. But his CPOE ranks seventh in the league, suggesting he’s made enough plays to force us to consider whether he’s better than expected (seems unlikely!).
Smith is executing a low-wattage aerial attack well, completing a ridiculous 81 percent of his passes but only throwing a league-low 5.3 yards downfield per pass. He’s efficient, which matters, but only so much.
So, there you go. If you’re mad about these rankings, just remember that Wilson, Brissett and Smith wound up on the third tier and that it takes way more data to paint a complete picture.
4
CARSON WENTZ
11. Carson Wentz, Washington Commanders, 0.112 EPA+CPOE composite
Looks good on paper, loses games on the field. Yep, that’s Carson Wentz.
5
The creamy middle of the early NFL season
12. Marcus Mariota, Atlanta Falcons, 0.080 EPA+CPOE composite
13. Joe Flacco, New York Jets, 0.061
14. Mac Jones, New England Patriots, 0.058
15. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers, 0.053
16. Daniel Jones, New York Giants, 0.048
17. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams, 0.047
18. Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans, 0.042
19. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals, 0.041
20. Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders, 0.038
21. Jameis Winston, New Orleans Saints, 0.037
22. Cooper Rush, Dallas Cowboys, 0.036
23. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals, 0.035
Daniel Jones, sandwiched in between Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford, just as we all expected. Pretty much everyone on this tier has had at least one bad quarter/half/game. Those can either be outliers as they float up the rankings or anchors that keep them tethered to the mediocre.
6
I think we all expected better (maybe not from you, Goff)
24. Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 0.022 EPA+CPOE composite
25. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions, 0.019
26. Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings, 0.017
27. Matt Ryan, Indianapolis Colts, -0.001
28. Mitchell Trubisky, Pittsburgh Steelers, -0.011
Brady and Cousins ranked 15th and seventh, respectively, before nightmarish performances in Week 2 (at least Brady got the win). Goff has a 6:1 touchdown:interception ratio and is airing it out a fair amount but his actual completion rate (57.7 percent) is a full nine points lower than the Next Gen Stats model thinks it should be.
7
We're still trying to figure things out
29. Justin Fields, Chicago Bears, -0.033 EPA+CPOE composite
30. Davis Mills, Houston Texans, -0.035
31. Baker Mayfield, Carolina Panthers, -0.038
Fields and Mills are second year quarterbacks whose receiving/tight end corps mostly look like extras from a Disney Channel movie about football players who love to sing. Mayfield has D.J. Moore and Robbie Anderson and three years of experience on these guys, so …
8
There were circumstances
32. Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers, -0.071 EPA+CPOE composite
33. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys, -0.093
Lance played horribly in a constant downpour before getting hurt in Week 2. Prescott played horribly in his own home dome environment before getting hurt late in Week 1. We won’t know if Lance can be better in 2022 because he’s out for the season following ankle surgery. Prescott should be back in four to eight weeks. He’s got something to prove when he does.
