Brock Purdy emerged as the NFL’s most efficient quarterback after Week 4. Then he faced a dominant Dallas Cowboys defense and strengthened his grip on the top spot.
Purdy carved up the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football, roasting the ersatz NFC contenders with 252 passing yards and four touchdowns on only 24 attempts. Meanwhile, Dak Prescott struggled against a smothering San Francisco defense and merely “good” performances from Josh Allen and Tua Tagovailoa helped the second-year pro and former 262nd overall pick widen his lead over the field.
So who else might catch him? Fortunately, we’ve got the data to learn who might be charging into his rear view.
Let’s talk about those numbers. Expected points added (EPA) is a concept that’s been around since 1970. It’s effectively a comparison between what an average quarterback could be expected to do on a certain down and what he actually did — and how it increased his team’s chances of scoring. The model we use comes from The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin and his RBSDM.com website, which is both wildly useful AND includes adjusted EPA, which accounts for defensive strength. It considers the impact of penalties and does not negatively impact passers for fumbles after a completion.
The other piece of the puzzle is completion percentage over expected (CPOE), which is pretty much what it sounds like. It’s a comparison of all the completions a quarterback would be expected to make versus the ones he actually did. Like EPA, it can veer into the negatives and higher is better. So if you chart all 33 primary quarterbacks — the ones who played at least 80 snaps in five weeks — you get a chart that looks like this:
Top right hand corner is good. Bottom left corner is bad. Try splitting those passers into tiers and you get an imperfect seven-layer system that looks like this:
These rankings are sorted by a composite of adjusted EPA and CPOE to better understand who has brought the most — and the least — value to their teams across the small sample size. It’s not a full exploration of a player’s value, but it’s a viable starting point. Let’s take a closer look.
1
A very difficult MVP race to explain to someone from summer 2022
1. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers: 0.260 EPA+CPOE composite
2. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills: 0.213
3. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins: 0.205
2
Two guys we expected to be here and two comeback stories (that may not last)
4. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs: 0.165 EPA + CPOE composite
5. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 0.150
6. Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos: 0.146
7. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers: 0.145
Mahomes keeps churning out hits, though his numbers could drop if Travis Kelce misses any time. Herbert is doing work under offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and the loss of Mike Williams will be at least partially offset by the return of Austin Ekeler. Mayfield remains a top-five quarterback thanks to the Bucs’ bye week.
Lest we start believing Wilson is fixed, here are his EPA numbers by quarter:
- first quarter: 0.788 (best among starting quarterbacks)
- second: 0.102 (16th)
- third: -0.293 (29th)
- fourth: 0.093 (18th)
Exclude garbage time snaps from his fourth quarter numbers and that number drops to -0.416, worst in the NFL. Woof.
3
Absolutely vital to an NFC title
8. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions: 0.135 EPA + CPOE composite
9. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles: 0.125
Goff is quietly building his case for MVP consideration. Hurts hasn’t been as proficient a passer as he was last season, but the Eagles are 5-0 which makes it difficult to complain.
4
Guys who can get you to the playoffs, but you don't quite trust
10. Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings: 0.099 EPA + CPOE composite
11. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys: 0.097
12. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks: 0.092
13. Sam Howell, Washington Commanders: 0.089
14. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens: 0.083
15. Jimmy Garoppolo, Las Vegas Raiders: 0.077
16. CJ Stroud, Houston Texans: 0.074
17. Gardner Minshew II, Indianapolis Colts: 0.074
Prescott got abused by the 49ers’ defense and slid out of the top 10. Jackson got abused by his own receiving corps’ lack of hands and did as well (though the Steelers’ pass rush played a role). Cousins didn’t turn the ball over in Week 5, which isn’t as good as a win but suggests the football gods may no longer actively hate him. Minshew has proven to be perfect Anthony Richardson insurance for the Colts, and it looks like he’ll have the chance to add more data to that hypothesis in coming weeks.
5
The guys we expect more from
18. Deshaun Watson: 0.060 EPA + CPOE composite
19. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars: 0.059
20. Justin Fields, Chicago Bears: 0.056
21. Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints: 0.055
22. Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans: 0.052
23. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams: 0.050
24. Joshua Dobbs, Arizona Cardinals: 0.050
Upward mobility here is key for a couple young passers. Trevor Lawrence took a step toward being the player we’d all expected by lighting up a depleted Bills defense in London. He got Calvin Ridley looking like a WR1 once more, which may be key to the Jaguars’ contention hopes.
Fields rose from the league’s worst quarterback to a top 20 spot in a matter of two weeks. If he can keep riding DJ Moore and a playbook that actually includes designed runs he could finish 2023 as an above-average starter.
6
It's not good.
25. Daniel Jones, New York Giants: 0.034 EPA + CPOE composite
26. Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers: 0.033
27. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers: 0.026
28. Zach Wilson, New York Jets: 0.024
29. Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts: 0.022
30. Desmond Ridder, Atlanta Falcons: 0.020
31. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals: 0.014
Burrow either healed more quickly than anyone hoped or learned to work around the limitations of the calf injury that had stunted his passing game over the first four weeks of the season (it’s the latter). He took Ja’Marr Chase’s “always open” comment to heart, hitting his WR1 up for 15 catches and three touchdowns in a 317-yard performance — easily his best of the year … albeit against an understaffed Cardinals team.
And hey, Zach Wilson is a top 30 quarterback! That’s wildly faint praise but also something we haven’t been able to say about him often.
7
Might be time for a new franchise QB
32. Mac Jones, New England Patriots: 0.004 EPA + CPOE composite
33. Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers: -0.004
At least Pickett hasn’t gotten benched in back-to-back 30-plus point blowout losses.
