So here it is, Merry Christmas, everybody’s having fun. Well, not everybody, but certainly the person who put together this delightful, and unnerving, mash-up of Bill Belichick ‘singing’ Have Yourself a Merry Little Christmas.
It will be an especially joyful one for liammacpherson and Shane Kennealy – the only two people to call every game correctly in our Pick Six contest last week. BenniBoe should be pretty pleased, as well, to learn that they are still top of our overall standings, which I will post in the comments section below.
Before that, here are the games you need to pick in week 16.
New England Patriots @ New York Jets (Sunday 1pm ET/6pm GMT)
It feels somewhat unreasonable that the Jets should drop out of the playoff positions at the end of a month in which they have done nothing but win. New York claimed their fourth consecutive victory on Sunday but slipped from the AFC’s sixth seed down to its seventh on account of Pittsburgh’s triumph over Denver, which gave the Steelers a tie-breaking superior record against common opponents.
Pittsburgh’s remaining schedule is soft, too, as is that of the conference’s other 9-5 team, Kansas City. The best the Jets can do, as Todd Bowles framed it this week, is to “win the last two games and just hope for the best”. But even the first part of that equation looks like a tall order with the Patriots coming to town. The Jets have lost eight of their last nine meetings with Bill Belichick’s team.
Giving them hope this weekend are New England’s many injuries, with Danny Amendola and Dont’a Hightower the latest names added to the list. The Patriots’ signing of Steven Jackson generated plenty of hype, but expectations must be tempered for a 32-year-old back who has been out of the league since February and averaged 3.6 yards per carry over the past two seasons.
The injuries haven’t slowed New England down too much so far, of course, and I cannot pretend it would stun me if they flattened the Jets regardless. But for a hunch and a memory of how hard Todd Bowles fought at Gillette Stadium in October, I am backing Gang Green.
Jets to win
Chicago Bears @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Sunday 1pm ET/6pm GMT)
The Buccaneers were officially eliminated from playoff contention on Sunday. The suggestion that they were ever in playoff contention might provoke cruel chuckles from those outside the organisation, but Lovie Smith certainly talked like a man who had believed his team could defy the odds. “Reality kind of hit us hard,” confessed the head coach, before insisting that his team would still go all out in their bid to end the season on a high note.
There are good grounds for optimism in Tampa Bay, from the development of Jameis Winston – impressively consistent, if rarely spectacular, over the second-half of this season – to the re-emergence of Doug Martin as one of the league’s better running backs. It is the latter player who ought to worry Chicago the most.
The Bears’ run defense is among the worst in the league, surrendering 125.9 yards per game on the ground. They did restrict Adrian Peterson to just 63 last week, but he had already been slowing down of late and was forced out of the game for a time with an injury. Martin is averaging 5.1 yards per carry and only seems to be coming on stronger as the season nears its conclusion.
Buccaneers to win
Jacksonville Jaguars @ New Orleans Saints (Sunday 1pm ET/6pm GMT)
Improbable as it seems, the Jaguars are not dead yet. Even at 5-9, they could still sneak into the playoffs if they win out – a scenario which would include beating Houston in week 17 – though they would also need the Titans to beat both the Texans and Colts in their remaining two games.
That is not going to happen, of course, but the notional possibility should at least keep the Jags from taking their foot off the pedal this Sunday. And that fact, in turn, could set up an entertaining duel at the Superdome.
The Saints have no postseason pipe dream to sustain them, but Drew Brees is a ferocious enough competitor that he remains intent on playing despite suffering a torn plantar fascia in his right foot. Were it not for that injury, I would back him to win a shoot-out with Blake Bortles. But as it is, I expect the Jags QB to have the more productive day, with Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns tearing up that dreadful Saints secondary.
Jaguars to win
Indianapolis Colts @ Miami Dolphins (Sunday 1pm ET/6pm GMT)
If any further evidence were required as to how dismal the Colts have been this season, it arrived on Tuesday – when not a single member of their roster was named to the Pro Bowl. Last season, seven Indy players made the cut. Perhaps more damning than the news itself was the fact that even the team’s own fans only really seemed to be aggrieved over the omission of punter Pat McAfee.
At this rate, they might need him to do more than just punt. The Colts could be without their top two quarterbacks this week, with Andrew Luck not yet ready to return from his lacerated kidney and Matt Hasselbeck, in the words of Chuck Pagano, “beat up from the feet up”.
Charlie Whitehurst, who has played off the bench in each of the last three games, will step in as starter if Hasselbeck cannot go, but behind him there is nobody. The Titans just pinched Alex Tanney off the Colts’ practice squad and emergency backup Griff Whalen has been placed on injured reserved after fracturing his ribs. It was in this context that McAfee volunteered himself (probably jokingly) this week to serve as Whitehurst’s No2.
In case of emergency... Call pic.twitter.com/joZ6L9JKmF
— Pat McAfee (@PatMcAfeeShow) December 21, 2015
Despite it all, I still find myself leaning towards Indy. The Dolphins’ only win in the last five weeks came against a Ravens team that has been even more decimated by injury than Indianapolis, and they showed desperately little fight in that blowout defeat to San Diego last week.
Colts to win
Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans (Sunday 1pm ET/6pm GMT)
Our run through the AFC South stumblers and strivers concludes with Houston visiting Tennessee. At 7-7, the Texans are not only in pole position to make the postseason but have a real shot at getting there with a winning record. One optimistic Houston Press writer even mapped out a scenario that ended with them playing the AFC Championship game at home.
Probably best to take things one step at a time, though, and this weekend’s appointment with the Titans has the feel of an accident waiting to happen. Tennessee is a bad football team made even worse by the absence of Marcus Mariota. But the Texans are not good enough themselves to take any opponent for granted. This is still the same group, lest we forget, that lost to the Bills two weeks ago and previously got blown out in Miami.
There is no guarantee that the Texans will have their own starting quarterback available, either. Brian Hoyer is still working his way through the league’s concussion protocol, and his replacement would be Brandon Weeden – who has started nine games in the last three years and won none of them, even if he did steer Houston to a victory off the bench last weekend.
Despite it all, though, I just cannot find enough to like about Tennessee.
Texans to win
Cincinnati Bengals @ Denver Broncos (Monday 8.30pm ET/Tuesday 1.30am GMT)
The schedule-makers have saved the best for last this week, with a game of real consequence on Monday Night Football. The Bengals can tie up a first-round playoff bye with a victory, but defeat would see Denver leapfrog them into the second seed.
At time of writing, the Broncos have not yet ruled out the possibility of Peyton Manning returning for this game, but the likelihood is that Brock Osweiler will once again be the man behind center. He has done enough while filling in for No18 to convince many fans that he ought to be the starter anyway. The same cannot be said for AJ McCarron in Cincinnati, but the former Heisman Trophy runner-up did a capable enough job filling in for Andy Dalton as he led the Bengals to a win in San Francisco last week.
This will be a much taller order against a Broncos defense that just had four players named to the Pro Bowl. For all of the mockery directed at Dalton for his disappointing record in prime-time games, I can imagine many Bengals fans ruing his absence on Monday night.
Broncos to win
