And now we wait. With free agency and the NFL draft in our rearview mirrors and months of uncertainty ahead, that’s all we can do. There are still a couple big names out there — Jadeveon Clowney and Cam Newton are the most notable ones — but, for the most part, rosters are pretty much set across the league as we head into the dead period of the season.
What better time to take look at the landscape of the league and power rank all 32 teams? That’s what I’ve done here. But before we get to the rankings, a little insight into my process.
A team’s 2019 performance obviously played a big factor, so I started out by making a list based on how teams finished a year ago. From there, I looked at how teams performed in statistics that are typically beyond a team’s control:
- I used Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Games Lost to gauge how lucky, or unlucky, a team was in the injury department.
- I looked at turnover margin and fumble recovery rates, two metrics that are volatile year-to-year.
- I looked at how teams performed compared to their Pythagorean Win Expectation, which carries more predictive power than your standard win-loss record.
- And I looked at how teams did in “coin-flip games,” a concept developed by FiveThirtyEight’s Ty Schalter that improves on the sometimes misleading “record in one-possession games” stat.
After reviewing every team’s offseason moves, I made adjustments to my initial list. So without further adieu, my post-offseason power ranking of all 32 NFL teams…
32. Jacksonville Jaguars
2019 record: 6-10 (-97 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 24th (Pass: 22 / Run: 28)
Defensive DVOA: 29th (Pass: 22 / Run: 31)
New Coaches: Jay Gruden, Offensive coordinator
Added: LB Joe Schobert, TE Tyler Eifert, CB Rashaan Melvin
Lost: DE Calais Campbell, CB A.J. Bouye, QB Nick Foles
Key Draft Picks: CB CJ Henderson, Florida (9th); EDGE K’Lavon Chaisson, LSU (20th); Round 2; WR Laviska Shenault, Colorado (42nd); DT Davon Hamilton, Ohio State (73rd); OT Ben Bartch, St. John’s (116th)
Regression Alert: 4th in Adjusted Games Lost
For the Jaguars to be a good football team, a lot of young players, including Gardner Minshew, will have to take a massive leap forward. That’s probably not going to happen, and with so many holes on the roster, it would not be surprising if things get ugly fast. I’m talking “Doug Marron fired by November” ugly. A lost season is probably what’s best for Jacksonville with the QB talent coming to the NFL in the next draft.
31. Washington Redskins
2019 record: 3-13 (-169 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 30th (Pass: 29 / Run: 25)
Defensive DVOA: 24th (Pass: 24 / Run: 24)
New Coaches: Ron Rivera, HC; Scott Turner, Offensive coordinator; Jack Del Rio, Defensive coordinator
Added: CB Kendall Fuller, LB Thomas Davis Sr., S Sean Davis, OG Wes Schweitzer
Lost: OG Ereck Flowers, CB Josh Norman, CB Quinton Dunbar
Key Draft Picks: EDGE Chase Young, Ohio State (2nd); RB Antonio Gibson, Memphis (66th); OT Saahdiq Charles, LSU (108th); WR Antonio Gandy-Golden, Liberty (142nd)
Regression Alert: 2nd in Adjusted Games Lost
Do we really have any confidence in this team properly developing Dwayne Haskins? I mean, that’s really what this comes down to. If he’s good, the Redskins could be a sneaky wild card contender. If not, they’ll be drafting in the top-five once again next year. On the other side of the ball, I don’t have much confidence in a Ron Rivera-Jack Del Rio duo building a good defense in 2020.
30. Carolina Panthers
2019 record: 5-11 (-130 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 28th (Pass: 31 / Run: 9)
Defensive DVOA: 25th (Pass: 11 / Run: 32)
New Coaches: Matt Rhule, HC; Joe Brady, Offensive coordinator; Phil Snow, Defensive coordinator
Added: QB Teddy Bridgewater, S Tre Boston, OT Russell Okung, WR Robby Anderson
Lost: QB Cam Newton, OG Trai Turner, EDGE Mario Addison, DE Gerald McCoy, TE Greg Olsen, DT Vernon Butler, S Eric Reid, LB Luke Kuechly
Key Draft Picks: DT Derrick Brown, Auburn; EDGE Yetur Gross-Matos, Penn State (38th); S Jeremy Chinn, SIU (64th); CB Troy Pride Jr., Notre Dame (113th); S Kenny Robinson, XFL (152nd)
Regression Alert: 29th in turnover margin
I don’t know if this team is attempting to start over or just rebuilding things on the fly. Either way, this is not a talented roster. The defense was among the worst in the league and lost some major pieces, including Luke Kuechly. The offense was even worse but there is more hope for improvement there with Teddy Bridgewater replacing Kyle Allen. Bridgewater has a limited season, though, and his conservative style isn’t going to work with the opposing offenses putting up 25 points a game every week.
29. New York Giants
2019 record: 4-12 (-110 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 13th (Pass: 26 / Run: 18)
Defensive DVOA: 24th (Pass: 31 / Run: 7)
New Coaches: Joe Judge, HC; Jason Garrett, Offensive coordinator; Patrick Graham, Defensive coordinator
Added: CB James Bradberry, LB Blake Martinez
Lost: EDGE Markus Golden, S Antoine Bethea, LB Alec Ogletree, OT Mike Remmers
Key Draft Picks: T Andrew Thomas, Georgia (4th); S Xavier McKinney, Alabama (36th); T Matt Peart, Connecticut (99th); CB Darnay Holmes, UCLA (110th)
Regression Alert: T32nd turnover margin
On paper, the Giants don’t look much better than they were a season ago but there is hope simply due to the fact that Daniel Jones is young and there’s a chance he takes the proverbial leap. I’m just not confident that happens, especially with Jason Garrett in charge of the offense. The defense remains a major concern, even after the James Bradberry signing. He’s a solid corner, but not one who is going to transform a secondary on his own.
28. Miami Dolphins
2019 record: 5-11 (-188 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 27th (Pass: 25 / Run: 32)
Defensive DVOA: 32nd (Pass: 32 / Run: 27)
New Coaches: Chan Gailey, Offensive coordinator; Josh Boyer, Defensive coordinator
Added: CB Byron Jones, EDGE Kyle Van Noy, EDGE Shaq Lawson, G Ereck Flowers, EDGE Emmanuel Ogbah, RB Jordan Howard, C Ted Karras, RB Matt Breida
Lost: None
Key Draft Picks: QB Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama (5th); T Austin Jackson, USC (18th); CB Noah Igbinoghene, Auburn (30th); OG Robert Hunt, Louisiana (39th); DT Raekwon Davis, Alabama (56th); S Brandon Jones, Texas (70th); DT Solomon Kindley, Georgia (111th)
Regression Alert: 3-1 in coin-flip games; 5th in Adjusted Games Lost; 27th in turnover margin
The Dolphins officially kicked off Phase 2 of their rebuilding plan in the offseason and added A LOT of talent through the draft in free agency. But they had a lot more ground to make up than their 5-11 record implies. Even if Tua Tagovailoa comes in and establishes himself as the QB of the future, Miami is likely still another good offseason away from making a push for a playoff spot.
27. New York Jets
2019 record: 7-9 (-83 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 31st (Pass: 32 / Run: 31)
Defensive DVOA: 10th (Pass: 18 / Run: 2)
Added: OT George Fant, C Connor McGovern, CB Quincy Wilson
Lost: WR Robby Anderson, C Ryan Kalil, OT Brandon Shell, OT Kelvin Beachum, CB Trumaine Johnson
Key Draft Picks: T Mekhi Becton, Louisville (11th); WR Denzel Mims, Baylor (59th); S Ashtyn Davis, California (68th); EDGE Jabari Zuniga, Florida (79th); CB Bryce Hall, Virginia (158th)
Regression Alert: 1st in Adjusted Games Lost
The Jets had a good draft and they needed it after a disappointing free agency period. They’re still going to have a hard time protecting Sam Darnold, and that’s really what this season comes down to for New York. If the passing game isn’t vastly improved, this will be another wasted season. With Adam Gase in control, it’s hard to have any confidence in things improving.
26. Cincinnati Bengals
2019 record: 2-14 (-141 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 29th (Pass: 28 / Run: 23)
Defensive DVOA: 30th (Pass: 28/ Run: 28)
Added: CB Trae Waynes, CB Mackensie Alexander, DT D.J. Reader
Lost: DT Andrew Billings, TE Tyler Eifert, LB Nick Vigil
Key Draft Picks: QB Joe Burrow, LSU (1st); WR Tee Higgins, Clemson (33rd); LB Logan Wilson, Wyoming (65th); LB Akeem Davis-Gaither, Appalachian State (107th)
Regression Alert: 0-3 in coin flip games; -2 Pythagorean wins; 30th in turnover margin
I’m torn on the Bengals. They were very unlucky to finish with only two wins last season. Their record in close games was abysmal and they were at the bottom of the league in turnover margin. They should be better in both regards next season. A.J. Green is coming back, they took the best quarterback in the draft and they finally spent some money in free agency. But look at that depth chart. It’s still terribly thin and Bengals are in one of the tougher divisions in football. Their ceiling might be a competitive 6-10.
25. Las Vegas Raiders
2019 record: 7-9 (-106 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 9th (Pass: 7 / Run: 21)
Defensive DVOA: 31st (Pass: 30 / Run: 21)
Added: LB Cory Littleton, LB Nick Kwiatkoski, QB Marcus Mariota, TE Jason Witten, S Jeff Heath, EDGE Carl Nassib, WR Nelson Agholor
Lost: S Karl Joseph, CB Daryl Worley
Key Draft Picks: WR Henry Ruggs III, Alabama (12th); CB Damon Arnette, Ohio State (19th); RB Lynn Bowden Jr., Kentucky (80th); WR Bryan Edwards, South Carolina (81st)
Regression Alert: +2 Pythagorean wins
The Raiders were busy this offseason, but it’s fair to ask, is this roster significantly better than it was last season? The Cory Littleton signing was a good one, but he’s just one off-the-ball linebacker and that defense had major problems rushing the passer and covering receivers. Mike Mayock and Jon Gruden used their two first-rounders on a receiver who is more of a second banana and a cornerback with an athletic profile that doesn’t typically get prospects drafted on Day 1. Not to mention, based on point differential, the Raiders were lucky to win seven games last season.
24. Chicago Bears
2019 record: 8-8 (-18 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 25th (Pass: 19 / Run: 29)
Defensive DVOA: 8th (Pass: 8 / Run: 13)
New Coaches: Bill Lazor, Offensive coordinator
Added: QB Nick Foles, EDGE Robert Quinn, TE Jimmy Graham, CB Artie Burns
Lost: CB Prince Amukamara, WR Taylor Gabriel, LB Nick Kwiatkoski, EDGE Leonard Floyd, S Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, OG Kyle Long
Key Draft Picks: TE Cole Kmet, Notre Dame (43rd); CB Jaylon Johnson, Utah (50th)
The Bears didn’t improve the quarterback position, so it’s hard to see this team taking a major step forward after what was a sobering 2019 season. Without much in the way of cap space or draft capital, Chicago was unable to fill in the gaps on the depth chart. Robert Quinn was really the only impact player added, so the 2020 Bears could look an awful lot like the 2019 Bears.
23. Houston Texans
2019 record: 10-6 (-7 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 16th (Pass: 16 / Run: 11)
Defensive DVOA: 26th (Pass: 26 / Run: 22)
New Coaches: Anthony Weaver, Defensive coordinator
Added: RB David Johnson, WR Brandin Cooks, WR Randall Cobb
Lost: WR DeAndre Hopkins, DT D.J Reader, CB Jonathan Joseph
Key Draft Picks: DT Ross Blacklock, TCU (40th); EDGE Jonathan Greenard, Florida (90th); OT Charlie Heck, UNC (126th); CB John Reid, Penn State (141st); WR Isaiah Coulter, Rhode Island (171st)
Regression Alert: +2 Pythagorean wins
Even if the Texans hadn’t lost their best receiver and replaced him with an injury-prone Brandin Cooks and a washed Randall Cobb, the Texans would have been a popular pick to fall out of the playoffs. Mostly due to the fact that they were the only playoff team to post a negative point differential in 2019. Houston didn’t add much talent in the draft and the offseason additions were straight out of 2016. Even Deshaun Waton’s brilliance may not be enough to prevent this team from plummeting to the bottom of the AFC standings.
22. Detroit Lions
2019 record: 3-12-1 (-82 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 18th (Pass: 15 / Run: 27)
Defensive DVOA: 28th (Pass: 29 / Run: 17)
New Coaches: Cory Undlin, Defensive coordinator
Added: CB Desmond Trufant, LB Jamie Collins Sr., DT Danny Shelton, OT Halapoulivaati Vaitai, S Duron Harmon
Lost: CB Darius Slay, G Graham Glasgow, DT Damon Harrison, EDGE Devon Kennard
Key Draft Picks: CB Jeffrey Okudah, Ohio State (3rd); RB D’Andre Swift, Georgia (35th); EDGE Julian Okwara, Notre Dame (67th); G Jonah Jackson, Ohio State (75th); G Logan Stenberg, Kentucky (121st)
Regression Alert: 1-5-1 in “coin flip” games; -3 Pythagorean wins;
The Lions have all the makings of a playoff sleeper. Before Matt Stafford’s injury, the passing game was looking good, and the Lions were competitive with some of the better teams in the league. The wheels eventually fell off, but it looks like the Lions have regression on the side after losing five “coin flip” games in 2019. That’s not going to happen again. If Patricia can just get the defense playing at a league-average level, the Lions could challenge for what looks like a weakened NFC North.
21. Los Angeles Rams
2019 record: 9-7 (+30 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 17th (Pass: 13 / Run: 20)
Defensive DVOA: 9th (Pass: 10 / Run: 10)
New Coaches: Brandon Staley, Defensive coordinator; Kevin O’Connell, Offensive coordinator
Added: DT A’Shawn Robinson, EDGE Leonard Floyd
Lost: RB Todd Gurley, WR Brandin Cooks, LB Cory Littleton, EDGE Dante Fowler Jr., CB Nickell Robey-Coleman, S Eric Weddle, EDGE Clay Matthews
Key Draft Picks: RB Cam Akers, Florida State (52nd); WR Van Jefferson, Florida (57th); EDGE Terrell Lewis, Alabama (84th); S Terrell Burgess, Utah (104th)
Regression Alert: 0-4 in coin flip games
As poorly as things went for the Rams in 2019, they were just a couple of lucky breaks away from getting back to the playoffs. Los Angeles finished 0-4 in close games and actually had a better point differential than the 11-5 Seahawks. Considering that, you might think the Rams are a good bounce-back candidate, but, as a result of their poor cap management, a lot of talent walked out the door during the offseason … and there wasn’t much coming back in. The offensive line was the biggest issue last season. Look at that list of additions. There are no offensive linemen on it.
20. Denver Broncos
2019 record: 7-9 (-34 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 26th (Pass: 27 / Run: 19)
Defensive DVOA: 13th (Pass: 14 / Run: 16)
New Coaches: Pat Shurmur, Offensive coordinator
Added: DT Jurrell Casey, CB A.J. Bouye, G Graham Glasgow, RB Melvin Gordon, TE Nick Vannett
Lost: CB Chris Harris Jr., C Connor McGovern, DE Derek Wolfe
Key Draft Picks: WR Jerry Jeudy, Alabama (15th); WR KJ Hamler, Penn State (46th); CB Michael Ojemudia, Iowa (77th); C Lloyd Cushenberry, LSU (83rd); DT McTelvin Agim, Arkansas (93rd)
Regression Alert: 2-4 in coin flip games
The Broncos will be a popular playoff pick during the offseason, and there’s a good reason for that after John Elway injected talent on both sides of the ball. But, the success of the team will ultimately come down to the play of Drew Lock, and I’m not really a fan. If I’m wrong about Lock — which is very possible — Denver will be a dangerous team.
19. Los Angeles Chargers
2019 record: 5-11 (-8 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 12th (Pass: 9 / Run: 24)
Defensive DVOA: 21st (Pass: 20 / Run: 25)
Added: CB Chris Harris Jr., DT Linval Joseph, OT Bryan Bulaga, OG Trai Turner
Lost: QB Philip Rivers, OT Russell Okung, RB Melvin Gordon
Key Draft Picks: QB Justin Herbert, Oregon (6th); LB Kenneth Murray, Oklahoma (23rd); RB Joshua Kelley, UCLA (112th)
Regression Alert: 2-4 in coin flip games; -3 Pythagorean wins; 3rd in Adjusted Games Lost; T32nd in turnover margin; 32nd in fumble recovery percentage
All of those regression numbers suggest the Chargers will be a far better team in 2020 with just average luck. Two concerns:
- The Chargers are cursed and I’ve been burned too many times being rational an expecting their luck to change
- It’s been a few years since Tyrod Taylor has looked like a good starter and Justin Herbert just isn’t good at football yet.
Now, if they sign Cam Newton, you can bump them up a spot or five, because there is talent all over the roster.
18. Arizona Cardinals
2019 record: 5-10-1 (-81 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 13th (Pass: 20 / Run: 2)
Defensive DVOA: 23rd (Pass: 27 / Run: 12)
Added: WR DeAndre Hopkins, EDGE Devon Kennard, DT Jordan Phillips, LB De’Vondre Campbell
Lost: RB David Johnson
Key Draft Picks: LB Isaiah Simmons, Clemson (8th); T Josh Jones, Houston (72nd); DT Leki Fotu, Utah (114th)
Regression Alert: 1-3-1 in coin flip games
I have all the confidence in Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray taking off in their second NFL season together, especially now that the Cardinals have a true No. 1 receiver who can win against man coverage. That should open up Arizona’s passing game, which never caught up with the run game last season. Here’s the problem: That defense couldn’t stop the pass, and it doesn’t really look any better on paper. Now, there are some good young players in the secondary and Patrick Peterson will be there for the entire season, so maybe it gets better. If that happens, the Cardinals could compete for a playoff spot.
17. Atlanta Falcons
2019 record: 7-9 (-18 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 15th (Pass: 12 / Run: 22)
Defensive DVOA: 20th (Pass: 25 / Run: 14)
New Coaches: Raheem Morris, Defensive coordinator
Added: EDGE Dante Fowler Jr., TE Hayden Hurst, RB Todd Gurley, EDGE Taco Harris
Lost: CB Desmond Trufant, RB Devonta Freeman, EDGE Vic Beasley Jr., LB De’Vondre Campbell, TE Austin Hooper
Key Draft Picks: CB A.J. Terrell, Clemson (16th); DT Marlon Davidson, Auburn (47th); C Matt Hennessey, Temple (78th)
Regression Alert: 3-0 in coin flip games; 28th in Adjusted Games Lost
The Falcons are stuck between a rebuild and trying to recapture the magic of 2016. Instead of blowing things up and starting over with a new head coach, they decided to bring back Dan Quinn for what seems like one last season. The offense is still strong but the defense could actually be worse than it was last season after a meh free agency period was followed by a draft that didn’t bring in any immediate contributors. Making matters worse, the Falcons are coming off a 7-9 season in which they won all of their coin-flip games and were one of the healthier teams in the league in terms of Adjusted Games Lost.
16. Cleveland Browns
2019 record: 6-10 (-58 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 20th (Pass: 21 / Run: 8)
Defensive DVOA: 22nd (Pass: 17 / Run: 30)
New Coaches: Kevin Stefanski, HC; Alex Van Pelt, Offensive coordinator; Joe Woods, Defensive coordinator
Added: OT Jack Conklin, TE Austin Hooper, QB Case Keenum, CB Kevin Johnson, DT Andrew Billings, S Andrew Sendejo
Lost: S Damarious Randall, LB Joe Schobert
Key Draft Picks: OT Jedrick Wills, Alabama (10th); S Grant Delpit, LSU (44th); DT Jordan Elliott, Missouri (88th); LB Jacob Phillips, LSU (97th); TE Harrison Bryant, FAU (115th)
Regression Alert: 26th in turnover margin
Well, Freddie Kitchens and his inexperienced coaching staff is gone, which is a good start. If Kevin Stefanski’s staff is just competent, the Browns have enough talent to finally break through and make the playoffs. Especially after the front office addressed the offensive line issue that plagued this offense in 2019. If we see the Baker Mayfield we saw at the end of his rookie season, the Browns will be playing in January.
15. Tennessee Titans
2019 record: 9-7 (+71 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 6th (Pass: 6 / Run: 5)
Defensive DVOA: 16th (Pass: 21 / Run: 9)
Coaching changes: No replacement for Dean Pees hired
Added: EDGE Vic Beasley
Lost: QB Marcus Mariota, OT Jack Conklin, DT Jurrell Casey, TE Delanie Walker
T Isaiah Wilson, Georgia (29th); CB Kristian Fulton, LSU (61st); RB Darrynton Evans, App State (93rd)
Regression Alert: 30th in Adjusted Games Lost
The Titans said goodbye to several mainstays on the roster and made a significant bet on Ryan Tannehill’s breakout last season being real. If it wasn’t, the Titans will fall back into mediocrity. If it was real, they’ll challenge for the AFC South title. Tennessee’s most significant loss was not a player, though. Defensive coordinator Dean Pees retired and Mike Vrabel is going with a coordinator by committee approach in 2020.
14. Philadelphia Eagles
2019 record: 9-7 (+31 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 16th (Pass: 17 / Run: 13)
Defensive DVOA: 12th (Pass: 16 / Run: 4)
New Coaches: Press Taylor, Pass-game coordinator; Jeff Stoutland, Run-game coordinator; Rich Scangarello, Senior offensive assistant
Added: CB Darius Slay, DT Javon Hargrave, WR Marquise Goodwin
Lost: OT Jason Peters, S Malcolm Jenkins, WR Nelson Agholor, CB Ronald Darby, RB Jordan Howard
Key Draft Picks: WR Jalen Reagor, TCU (21st); QB Jalen Hurts, Oklahoma (53rd); LB Davion Taylor, Colorado (103rd); S K’Von Wallace, Clemson (127th); OT Jack Driscoll, Auburn (145th); WR John Hightower, Boise State (168th)
Regression Alert: 27th in fumble recovery percentage
The Eagles reshuffled their coaching staff, traded for Darius Slayton and signed Javon Hargraves, and … didn’t really do much else. That’s a bit concerning after how flawed this team looked in 2019. All of the issues with this team last year could very well be issues again. The successes receiving corps is contingent on a rookie (Jalen Reagor) and the health of two receivers (DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery) who are never healthy. There still isn’t a true outside corner on the roster. And the offensive coaching staff is still largely the same, just with different titles. If Carson Wentz gets hurt, this could be a disaster that has us wondering just how safe Doug Pederson’s job is by the end of the season.
13. Seattle Seahawks
2019 record: 11-5 (+7 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 5th (Pass: 4 / Run: 6)
Defensive DVOA: 18th (Pass: 15 / Run: 26)
Added: TE Greg Olsen, EDGE Bruce Irvin, C B.J. Finney, OT Cedric Ogbuehi, OT Brandon Shell, CB Quinton Dunbar
Lost: DT Quinton Jefferson, EDGE Ezekiel Ansah, OT Germain Ifedi, OT George Fant, OG Mike Iupati, EDGE Jadeveon Clowney*, C Justin Britt, OG D.J. Fluker
Key Draft Picks: LB Jordyn Brooks, Texas Tech (27th); EDGE Darrell Taylor, Tennessee (48th);
OG Damien Lewis, LSU (69th)
Regression Alert: 5-1 in coin flip games; +3 Pythagorean wins; 27th in Adjusted Games Lost
The 2019 Seahawks had no business being a playoff team. But thanks to unsustainable luck and Russell Wilson’s very sustainable brilliance, it somehow happened. Just don’t bet on it happening again. The Seahawks aren’t going to win 11 one-possession games. They’re probably not going to be one of the healthiest teams in the league again. Or maybe it will, as the Seahawks do not abide by the natural laws of football. Who needs an offensive line or a pass rush Wilson and Pete Carroll’s never-wavering optimism?
12. Indianapolis Colts
2019 record: 7-9 (-12 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 19th (Pass: 24 / Run: 7)
Defensive DVOA: 17th (Pass: 19 / Run: 19)
Added: DT DeForest Buckner, QB Philip Rivers, CB Xavier Rhodes
Lost: EDGE Jabaal Sheard, TE Eric Ebron, WR Devin Funchess
Key Draft Picks: WR Michael Pittman Jr., USC (34th); RB Jonathan Taylor, Wisconsin (41st); S Julian Blackmon, Utah (85th)
Regression Alert: 2-4 in coin flip games
The Colts will eventually have to find a young quarterback to build around, but landing Philip Rivers should push this team back into the playoffs after Andrew Luck’s sudden retirement submarined what was supposed to be a promising 2019 campaign. DeForest Buckner could be the missing piece for what has been a solid defense for the past two years. If Michael Pittman is as good as I think he’ll be, this offense might be a top-10 unit. If it is, Indy is winning the AFC South.
11. Green Bay Packers
2019 record: 13-3 (+63 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 8th (Pass: 11 / Run: 4)
Defensive DVOA: 15th (Pass: 9 / Run: 23)
Added: LB Christian Kirksey, OT Ricky Wagner, WR Devin Funchess
Lost: LB Blake Martinez, OT Bryan Bulaga, CB Tramon Williams, WR Geronimo Allison, TE Jimmy Graham
Key Draft Picks: QB Jordan Love, Utah State (26th); RB AJ Dillon, Boston College (62nd); TE Josiah Deguara, Cincinnati (94th)
Regression Alert: +3 Pythagorean wins; 4th in turnover margin
Let’s get one thing out of the way quickly: Despite what that record says, the Packers were not 13-3 good in 2019. That’s the point differential of a 10-6 team, which is what we’re more likely to see in 2020. It could be even worse if the Packers don’t finish with a top-five turnover margin for a second consecutive season. This team desperately needed to get better in the offseason to keep up with the top team in the NFC. It didn’t.
10. Minnesota Vikings
2019 record: 10-6 (+104 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 10th (Pass: 10 / Run: 16)
Defensive DVOA: 7th (Pass: 7 / Run: 8)
New Coaches: Gary Kubiak, Offensive coordinator; Adam Zimmer and Andre Patterson, co-DCs
Added: DT Michael Pierce
Lost: WR Stefon Diggs, CB Trae Waynes, EDGE Everson Griffen, CB Mackensie Alexander, DT Linval Joseph, CB Xavier Rhodes
Key Draft Picks: WR Justin Jefferson, LSU (22nd); CB Jeff Gladney, TCU (31st); OT Ezra Cleveland, Boise State (58th); CB Cameron Dantzler, Mississippi State (89th); EDGE D.J. Wonnum, South Carolina (117th); EDGE James Lynch, Baylor (130th)
Regression Alert: 32 in Adjusted Games Lost; 5th in turnover margin
The Vikings’ roster is a lot thinner after an offseason exodus, and while a robust draft class should help fill some of those holes, you never know what to expect out of rookies — especially with an abbreviated offseason schedule. The biggest loss is obviously Stefon Diggs, who left a gaping void at the top of the receiver depth chart and I don’t think Justin Jefferson is capable of filling it just yet. The Vikings also have some injury regression headed their way after finishing as the healthiest team in 2019. Luckily for Minnesota, the biggest threat in the NFC North is coming off an even worse offseason.
9. Buffalo Bills
2019 record: 10-6 (+55 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 1st (Pass: 1st / Run: 1st)
Defensive DVOA: 6th (Pass: 5 / Run: 18)
Added: WR Stefon Diggs, EDGE Mario Addison, DT Vernon Butler, DT Quinton Jefferson, CB Josh Norman
Lost: EDGE Shaq Lawson, EDGE Lorenzo Alexander, CB Kevin Johnson, DT Jordan Phillips
Key Draft Picks: EDGE AJ Epenesa, Iowa (54th); RB Zack Moss, Utah (86th); WR Gabriel Davis, UCF (128th)
Regression Alert: Outperformed win expectation by 2 games based on DVOA
After the trade for Stefon Diggs, I’m not sure there’s a real weakness on this roster … except for the one at the quarterback position. If the Bills are going to fight off defensive regression, Josh Allen has to be better. I’ve written at length why I’m skeptical about him taking a big step forward, but if he does, the Bills aren’t just the favorites in the AFC East. They’d be capable of challenging the Chiefs and Ravens at the top of the conference.
8. New England Patriots
2019 record: 12-4 (+195 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 11th (Pass: 14 / Run: 15)
Defensive DVOA: 1st (Pass: 1 / Run: 6)
New Coaches: Lost OL coach Dante Scarnecchia
Added: DT Beau Allen, WR Damiere Byrd
Lost: QB Tom Brady, EDGE Kyle Van Noy, LB Jamie Collins Sr., DT Danny Shelton, C Ted Karras, S Duron Harmon
Key Draft Picks: S Kyle Dugger, Lenoir-Rhyne (37th); EDGE Josh Uche, Michigan (60th); EDGE Anfernee Jennings, Alabama (87th); TE Devin Asiasi, UCLA (91st); TE Dalton Keene, Virginia Tech (101st)
Regression Alert: 1st in turnover margin; 2nd in fumble recovery percentage
Cam Newton is still looming as an option, but the closer we get to the summer, the more likely it is that the Patriots will actually go into the season with Jarrett Stidham and Brian Hoyer competing for the starting quarterback job. If that’s the case, I have New England ranked too highly here. The offense still lacks talent at the skill positions, Dante Scarnecchia is gone so the offensive line could take a major step back, the defensive is in for some major regression after relying so much on turnovers in 2019, and, oh yeah, neither Stidham nor Hoyer are any good. We’re about to find out how the extent of Bill Belichick’s genius.
7. Dallas Cowboys
2019 record: 8-8 (+113 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 2nd (Pass: 5 / Run: 3)
Defensive DVOA: 19th (Pass: 23 / Run: 15)
New Coaches: Mike McCarthy, HC; Mike Nolan, Defensive coordinator
Added: DT Gerald McCoy, S Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, EDGE Aldon Smith, QB Andy Dalton
Lost: CB Byron Jones, EDGE Robert Quinn, WR Randall Cobb, C Travis Frederick
Key Draft Picks: WR CeeDee Lamb, Oklahoma (17th); CB Trevon Diggs, Alabama (51st); DT Neville Gallimore, Oklahoma (82nd); CB Reggie Robinson, Tulsa (123rd); C Tyler Biadasz, Wisconsin (146th); EDGE Bradlee Anae, Utah (179th)
Regression Alert: -3 Pythagorean wins; 29th in Adjusted Games Lost;
The Cowboys were so much better than 8-8 last year. A little regression would have been enough to push Dallas into the playoff picture. Throw in the roster additions and a coaching staff with a longer track record of success, and it’s hard not to think this shouldn’t be the overwhelming favorite in the NFC East. If the rookie class contributes, the Cowboys will be a threat to the NFC’s top teams.
6. Pittsburgh Steelers
2019 record: 8-8 (-14 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 32nd (Pass: 30 / Run: 30)
Defensive DVOA: 3rd (Pass: 3 / Run: 3)
Added: FB Derek Watt, OG Stefen Wisniewski, TE Eric Ebron, DT Chris Wormley
Lost: DT Javon Hargrave, CB Artie Burns, LB Mark Barron
Key Draft Picks: WR Chase Claypool, Notre Dame (49th); EDGE Alex Highsmith, Charlotte (102nd); RB Anthony McFarland Jr., Maryland (124th)
Regression Alert: 7th in turnover margin
While the rest of us wish we could go back to how things were in 2019, the Steelers must be happy to have escaped the year. It started with Antonio Brown forcing his way out of Pittsburgh, got even worse when Ben Roethlisberger’s elbow blew up early in the season and then culminated with the supposed franchise quarterback in waiting getting benched for a dude named Duck and getting bonked on the head with a helmet. Somehow, despite all of that, the Steelers managed to win eight games, mostly thanks to a defense that finished third in DVOA. With Roethlisberger coming back and the Patriots losing Tom Brady, the Steelers should slot in right behind Baltimore and Kansas City in the AFC hierarchy.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2019 record: 7-9 (+9 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 22nd (Pass: 18 / Run: 26)
Defensive DVOA: 5th (Pass: 12 / Run: 1)
Added: QB Tom Brady, TE Rob Gronkowski
Lost: QB Jameis Winston, WR Breshad Perriman, EDGE Carl Nassib
Key Draft Picks: T Tristan Wirfs, Iowa (13th); S Antoine Winfield Jr., Minnesota (45th); RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Vanderbilt (76th); WR Tyler Johnson, Minnesota (161st)
Regression Alert: 31st in Adjusted Games Lost; 28th in turnover margin
Is Tom Brady’s declining play a major concern? Sure, but he won’t have to do as much heavy lifting in Tampa. Bruce Arians will have to adjust his offense to fit what Brady does best, but there’s just too much talent on the roster for this not to work. As long as the quarterback doesn’t throw 30 interceptions, that is.
4. San Francisco 49ers
2019 record: 13-3 (+169 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 7th (Pass: 8 / Run: 12)
Defensive DVOA: 2nd (Pass: 2 / Run: 11)
Added: LT Trent Williams
Lost: DT DeForest Buckner, WR Emmanuel Sanders
Key Draft Picks: DT Javon Kinlaw, South Carolina (14th); WR Brandon Aiyuk, Arizona State (25th)
Regression Alert: 7-3 coin flip games; 6th in Adjusted Games Lost
The 49ers were tremendously lucky in close games and that isn’t likely to continue. But that luck wasn’t needed until the defense was decimated by injuries during the second half of the season. If the Niners are healthier in 2020 — and they should be — they might be even better than they were during the 2019 regular season.
3. New Orleans Saints
2019 record: 13-3 (+117 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 4th (Pass: 3rd / Run: 10th)
Defensive DVOA: 11th (Pass: 13th / Run: 5th)
Added: S Malcolm Jenkins, WR Emmanuel Sanders
Lost: S Vonn Bell, CB Eli Apple, LB A.J. Klein
Key Draft Picks: C/G Cesar Ruiz, Michigan (24th); LB Zack Baun, Wisconsin (74th); TE Adam Trautman, Dayton (105th)
Regression Alert: 2nd in turnover margin; 1st in fumble recovery percentage; 26th in Adjusted Games Lost
The Saints have the deepest roster in the NFL. There isn’t really a weakness on the depth chart. Drew Brees is older and his arm isn’t as strong as it once was, but until that precision starts to go, he’ll continue to be one of the better quarterbacks in the league. The defense looks better on paper after the Malcolm Jenkins signing tied the secondary together. Injuries and a reversal of turnover luck are the only way this team isn’t at the top of the NFC standings come December.
2. Baltimore Ravens
2019 record: 14-2 (+249 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 1st (Pass: 1 / Run: 1)
Defensive DVOA: 4th (Pass: 4 / Run: 20)
Added: DE Calais Campbell, DE Derek Wolfe
Lost: DT Michael Pierce, TE Hayden Hurst, CB Brandon Carr
Key Draft Picks: LB Patrick Queen, LSU (28th); RB JK Dobbins, Ohio State (55th); DT Justin Madubuike, Texas A&M (71st); WR Devin Duvernay, Texas (92nd); LB Malik Harrison, Ohio State (98th); OG Ben Bredeson, Michigan (143rd)
Regression Alert: 3-0 in coin flip games; 6th in turnover margin; 3rd in fumble recovery percentage
We know the Ravens are going to be one of the very best teams in the NFL next season. But will they be ready to contend with a team like the Chiefs? That’s going to come down to Lamar Jackson’s progression as a passer. As good as the league’s MVP was in 2019, he’ll have to be even better if Baltimore is going to compete with Kansas City — even after the front office addressed its most pressing needs during the offseason.
1. Kansas City Chiefs
2019 record: 12-4 (+143 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 3rd (Pass: 2 / Run: 14)
Defensive DVOA: 14th (Pass: 6/ Run: 29)
Added: None
Lost: CB Kendall Fuller, EDGE Emmanuel Ogbah
Key Draft Picks: RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, LSU (32nd); LB Willie Gay Jr., Mississippi State (63rd); OT Lucas Niang, TCU (96th)
Rarely do we see the Super Bowl champs go through an offseason without losing any major contributors. The Chiefs are bringing back everyone and were able to fill some holes in the draft with the picks of Willie Gay Jr. and Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who gives Andy Reid another toy in the passing game, which is were the LSU product’s impact will really be felt. This team won 12 games with Patrick Mahomes missing time a year ago. If he stays healthy for the full slate of games, some records might be broken.
