The first predictions, early lines, and quick analysis of all the 2021 NFL playoff games.
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NFL Playoff Divisional Round First Thought Predictions
– Baltimore at Buffalo
– Cleveland at Kansas City
– Tampa Bay at New Orleans
Well that was a whole big big of fantastic.
The massive expanded NFL Wild Card weekend was outstanding from beginning to end. Even when there was a bit of a dud – (cough) Chicago New Orleans (cough) – it was still relatively entertaining in the glut of all those games that matter.
And now we get even more fun.
Two games Saturday, two games Sunday, and they’re going to be loaded.
Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen headline Saturday night when Baltimore goes to Buffalo, and we get Round 3 of Brady vs. Brees when Tampa Bay goes to New Orleans to end Sunday night.
Oh yeah, and the Rams going to Green Bay on Saturday and Cleveland taking its show to Kansas City on Sunday isn’t bad either.
So what’s going to happen?
As we do this for the college side, we go with the first-guess picks and then work from there. Like they tell you in third grade, always go with your first answer. I don’t look at the lines, guess at what they are, and then add them at the end.
By the way … went 6-0 straight up and 5-1 against the spread when doing this for the Wild Card round.
However, when our game previews come out – after the news of the week happens and there’s even more of a deep dive happening – these can and might change, but …
2021 NFL Playoffs Divisional Round: Saturday
6 Los Angeles Rams at 1 Green Bay Packers
Saturday, January 16
FOX, 4:35 ET
Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
Knee-Jerk Instant Analysis: The Rams were able to pull it off against a Seattle team that – for some bizarre reason – thought the answer to not being able to hit third down plays was to keep chucking it deep. Green Bay will be sharper all the way around.
That LA D – No. 1 in the NFL – is obviously amazing, but Aaron Donald is banged up, and as good as that performance against the Seahawks was, that’s not going to be enough to overcome a still-injured Jared Goff.
Green Bay doesn’t turn the ball over enough to matter here, but there’s a bigger problem … Green Bay.
It’s still almost a week away, but it’s expected to be around 20ish degrees at game time.
Knee-Jerk No Research Prediction: Green Bay 26, Los Angeles 16
Early Line No-Look Guess: Green Bay -7.5
Actual BetMGM Line: Green Bay -7, o/u: 46
NFL Playoff Divisional Round First Thought Predictions
– Baltimore at Buffalo
– Cleveland at Kansas City
– Tampa Bay at New Orleans
NEXT: Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills
5 Baltimore Ravens at 2 Buffalo Bills
Saturday, January 16
8:15, NBC
Bills Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
Knee-Jerk Instant Analysis: Baltimore is playing its best football of the season at the exact right time.
Lamar Jackson was brilliant against Tennessee, the defense stuffed Derrick Henry, and this was the confident, tough team that rolled through the end of the regular season with five straight wins.
The Colts were always going to be a tough matchup for the Bills – they control the clock and have the great lines and veteran QB – but Josh Allen and the Bill offense didn’t blink. They didn’t have the ball all that much, but when they did, they were explosive.
Here’s Buffalo’s problem – third downs. It lives off of them offensively – leading the league in third down conversions – but Baltimore is second in the NFL in third down stops and Lamar and that attack are fourth in the league at keeping the chains moving.
The Ravens have the defense that’s humming, and they have Lamar Jackson, JK Dobbins, and a running game that should rip through a Buffalo run defense that gives up way too many yards per carry.
Knee-Jerk No Research Prediction: Baltimore 34, Buffalo 30
Early Line No Look Guess: Buffalo -5
Actual BetMGM Line: Buffalo -3, o/u: 50
NFL Playoff Divisional Round First Thought Predictions
– Los Angeles at Green Bay
– Cleveland at Kansas City
– Tampa Bay at New Orleans
NEXT: 2021 NFL Playoffs Divisional Round: Sunday
2021 NFL Playoffs Divisional Round: Sunday
Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, January 17
4:05, CBS
Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Knee-Jerk Instant Analysis: Kansas City isn’t going to start the game by snapping the ball over Patrick Mahomes’ head.
Give Cleveland all the credit in the world for coming out sharp, roaring, and focused after a rough run, no head coach, and with an offensive line that got banged up throughout the win over Pittsburgh. However, it’s not going to be +5 in turnover margin again and a rested Kansas City will come up with a much, much better first quarter.
It won’t be 28-0 Cleveland.
That’s not to say the Browns can’t pull this off as long as Baker Mayfield plays as well as he did in Pittsburgh. He didn’t take any chances, he spread the ball around well, and the offensive design that negated the Steeler pass rush can absolutely work against this Chief D.
As good as the Cleveland pass rush is, and as strong as the offense will be to keep making this a ball game, Mahomes will be too fantastic. Expect a shootout, expect this to be all Chiefs early and in control throughout.
Knee-Jerk No Research Prediction: Kansas City 34, Cleveland 23
Early Line No Look Guess: Kansas City -10.5
Actual BetMGM Line: Kansas City -10, o/u: 56
NFL Playoff Divisional Round First Thought Predictions
– Los Angeles at Green Bay
– Baltimore at Buffalo
– Tampa Bay at New Orleans
NEXT: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints
5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 2 New Orleans Saints
Sunday, January 17
6:40, FOX
Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA
Knee-Jerk Instant Analysis: There’s no way New Orleans can make it a threezie that easy, can it?
It had few problems in 34-23 Week 1 win and dominated 38-3 in early November, but this is a stronger, sharper, better Buccaneer team now.
Tom Brady appears to be in sync with all of his high-end fantasy targets, he’s getting a whole lot of time to work, and he’s getting help from a running game that was without Ronald Jones, but got a huge day against Washington from Leonard Fournette.
And the defense couldn’t seem to do much to hold down Taylor Heinecke.
The Football Team was never going to beat the Bucs, but Heinecke and company made it very, very interesting.
Blow it off.
Tampa Bay got the free space game against the NFC East team with the losing record, New Orleans got its own free space matchup against an overmatched Chicago, and now the two get what they wanted in Round 3.
Tampa Bay will start out hot – jacked to prove that this will be a very, very different game this time around – but New Orleans will slowly and steadily keep producing, and then everything will come together early in the fourth.
Michael Thomas is starting to come back. Alvin Kamara is fine. The Saint D appears to have its groove back.
The Drew Brees ride isn’t ending quite yet.
Knee-Jerk No Research Prediction: New Orleans 31, Tampa Bay 26
Early Line No Look Guess: New Orleans -4
Actual BetMGM Line: New Orleans -3.5, o/u: 51
NFL Playoff Divisional Round First Thought Predictions
– Los Angeles at Green Bay
– Baltimore at Buffalo
– Cleveland at Kansas City
