The first predictions, early lines, and quick analysis of all the 2021 NFL playoff games – conference championship version.
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It makes sense that the best quarterbacks and the best teams are in conference championships, but assuming – and really, really hoping – Patrick Mahomes is okay and ready to roll for the AFC Championship, the star power coming up on Sunday is as good as it gets.
This isn’t Tom Brady vs. a Drew Brees who’s on his last ride before hitting the TV booth. This is Tom Brady vs. soon-to-be-MVP Aaron Rodgers in what’s expected to be the snow and cold of Green Bay.
It’s Mahomes – again, fingers crossed – vs. Josh Allen in a battle of superstars who’ll be a big part of our NFL lives for the next decade.
Throw in the fun of a Buffalo Mafia fan base that’s losing its mind, the defending Super Bowl champs, Rodgers in his first home NFC Championship game, and Tom freaking Brady being a game away from another Super Bowl appearance, and …
Yeah. The NFL Playoffs are awesome.
As always, without doing any research or giving it a whole lot of deep-dive thought, we give our knee-jerk, always-go-with-your-first-answer thoughts and predictions along with a first guess line on each game. Then we go back and add the actual lines.
When our game previews come out – after the news of the week happens and we make the call for real – these can and might change, but …
NFL Playoff Conference Championship First Thought Predictions
– Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers
– Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
NEXT: 2021 NFL Playoffs NFC Championship: Tampa Bay vs. Green Bay
2021 NFL Playoffs: NFC Championship
5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 1 Green Bay Packers
Sunday, January 24th
FOX 3:05 ET
Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
Knee-Jerk Instant Analysis: Not that it actually matters all that much, but shouldn’t Tom Brady vs. Aaron Rodgers get the late day marquee spot over the AFC Championship? The seeding is better on the other side, but …
It’s TOM BRADY vs. AARON RODGERS.
Yeah, but it was Tom Brady vs. Aaron Rodgers in Week 6, too, and it was Ndamukong Suh and the Tampa Bay defensive line vs. wearing Rodgers as a hat in in the 38-10 destruction.
It shouldn’t matter too much considering these are tough guys playing for a shot in the Super Bowl, but the early forecast is around 20ish and snow on Sunday afternoon in Green Bay. The guys from Florida are going to have to get used to be really cold really quickly.
Here’s where this gets interesting, though. When it was snowing in Green Bay’s Week 16 game against Tennessee, the passing game was fine, but it was the grinding ground attack that took over.
Tampa Bay has the NFL’s No. 1 run defense and allowed just 104 rushing yards against New Orleans. However, Rodgers isn’t going to throw the soul-crushing interceptions that Brees did, and the blocking scheme that was such a disaster that first time around will fix the glitch.
Knee-Jerk No Research Prediction: Green Bay 24, Tampa Bay 20
Early Line No-Look Guess: Green Bay -5
Actual BetMGM Line: Green Bay -3.5 o/u: 51
NFL Playoff Conference Championship First Thought Predictions
– Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
NEXT: 2021 NFL Playoffs AFC Championship: Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
2021 NFL Playoffs: AFC Championship
2 Buffalo Bills at 1 Kansas City Chiefs
Saturday, January 24
6:40, CBS
Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Knee-Jerk Instant Analysis: Is No. 15 going to be able to play or not, and how healthy will he be if he does?
It was a frightening sight as Patrick Mahomes got up with rubbery legs after getting tackled in the win over Cleveland, but Chad Henne was able to step in and get the Chiefs through to the conference championship.
Obviously there’s a huge drop-off from Mahomes to Henne if KC has to do that again, but there’s one key aspect to the win that’s getting lost.
The Kansas City defense got the job done.
Cleveland only gained 308 yards of total offense and was stopped on the one key late drive when the KC D absolutely had to come through. Blame the Browns for not going for it and punting – essentially – the game away, but give credit to the other side for holding down the great Cleveland ground game.
On the flip side, Kansas City managed just three second half points.
Of course Mahomes going out had everything to do with the issues against the Browns, but the 22-17 win made it eight straight games that Kansas City failed to win by more than six points.
In the first meeting between the two back in Week 7, Kansas City won 26-17 by holding the ball for forever.
Time of possession hasn’t mattered a whole lot to the Bills so far in the playoffs – Indianapolis and Baltimore each dominated the stat – but KC can’t have the ball for close to 38 minutes like it did in the first meeting.
Josh Allen was just okay, Buffalo only gained 206 yards, and …
Expect that to happen again.
Mahomes – it’s early, though – is expected to go, the Kansas City defense will rise up just enough to get to Allen, and it’ll be a grind of a game instead of the normal high-flying fun show that both teams are used to.
Knee-Jerk No Research Prediction: Kansas City 24, Buffalo 17
Early Line No Look Guess: Kansas City -3.5
Actual BetMGM Line: Kansas City -3, o/u: 54.5
