Several divisions are wide open for the taking through an unpredictable first quarter of the NFL season. All four AFC South teams have 2-2 records entering Week 5, while the NFC West features three teams with three wins.
To determine which teams have the best chance of making the playoffs in 2019, we crunched the numbers from the most recent playoff models from three major outlets – ESPN FPI, Football Outsiders, and Five Thirty Eight. Each team is ranked in order of their average projected chance to qualify for the playoffs. We’ve also included each team’s Super Bowl chances, according to the models.
BIG WINNERS FROM WEEK 3:
Eagles: The Eagles season easily could have unraveled had a wounded Eagles team dropped to 1-3, but despite a plethora of injuries limiting the offense and secondary, Philly pulled off an upset win on the road in Green Bay that could be a turning point.
Browns: Similar to Philadelphia, the Browns’ playoff chances took a nosedive after a 1-2 start, but Nick Chubb and the Browns hung 40 points on the Ravens in Baltimore to take over the top spot in the AFC North.
BIG LOSER FROM WEEK 3:
Ravens: The Ravens were a trendy Super Bowl darkhorse just a few weeks ago, but two consecutive losses have left Baltimore with a 52.2 percent chance of making the postseason. A stumble this weekend against the rival Steelers would be disastrous.
Here are the current playoff and Super Bowl chances for all 32 NFL teams:
32. Dolphins (0-4)
Playoff percentage: 0.07%
Change: DOWN 0.03%
Next game: BYE
Super Bowl chances: 0.07%
31. Redskins (0-4)
Playoff percentage: 0.3%
Change: DOWN 1.2%
Next game: vs. Patriots
Super Bowl chances: 0.07%
30. Cardinals (0-3-1)
Playoff percentage: 0.5%
Change: DOWN 0.8%
Next game: at Bengals
Super Bowl chances: 0.07%
29. Bengals (0-4)
Playoff percentage: 1.7%
Change: DOWN 3.4%
Next game: vs. Cardinals
Super Bowl chances: 0.07%
28. Broncos (0-4)
Playoff percentage: 2.1%
Change: DOWN 2.6%
Next game: at Chargers
Super Bowl chances: 0.07%
27. Jets (0-3)
Playoff percentage: 6.6%
Change: UP 0.8%
Next game: at Eagles
Super Bowl chances: 0.07%
26. Giants (2-2)
Playoff percentage: 9.0%
Change: UP 4.8%
Next game: vs. Vikings
Super Bowl chances: 0.1%
25. Falcons (1-3)
Playoff percentage: 11.0%
Change: DOWN 13.1%
Next game: at Texans
Super Bowl chances: 0.2%
24. Raiders (2-2)
Playoff percentage: 17.0%
Change: UP 10.2%
Next game: vs. Bears* (in London)
Super Bowl chances: 0.2%
23. Steelers (1-3)
Playoff percentage: 20.8%
Change: UP 11.5%
Next game: vs. Ravens
Super Bowl chances: 0.3%
22. Panthers (2-2)
Playoff percentage: 21.6%
Change: UP 5.8%
Next game: vs. Jaguars
Super Bowl chances: 0.8%
21. Buccaneers (2-2)
Playoff percentage: 27.0%
Change: UP 18.5%
Next game: at Saints
Super Bowl chances: 0.8%
20. Colts (2-2)
Playoff percentage: 28.9%
Change: DOWN 23.0%
Next game: at Chiefs
Super Bowl chances: 0.3%
19. Vikings (2-2)
Playoff percentage: 29.9%
Change: DOWN 13.8%
Next game: at Giants
Super Bowl chances: 1.5%
18. Jaguars (2-2)
Playoff percentage: 31.1%
Change: UP 11.5%
Next game: at Panthers
Super Bowl chances: 0.5%
17. Lions (2-1-1)
Playoff percentage: 33.6%
Change: DOWN 4.8%
Next game: BYE
Super Bowl chances: 1.3%
16. Chargers (2-2)
Playoff percentage: 40.8%
Change: UP 3.5%
Next game: vs. Broncos
Super Bowl chances: 1.4%
15. Seahawks (3-1)
Playoff percentage: 41.9%
Change: UP 8.8%
Next game: vs. Rams
Super Bowl chances: 2.3%
14. Texans (2-2)
Playoff percentage: 45.2%
Change: DOWN 19.3%
Next game: vs. Falcons
Super Bowl chances: 1.2%
13. Titans (2-2)
Playoff percentage: 47.8%
Change: UP 15.5%
Next game: vs. Bills
Super Bowl chances: 1.9%
12. Bears (3-1)
Playoff percentage: 48.3%
Change: UP 14.3%
Next game: at Raiders* (in London)
Super Bowl chances: 3.1%
11. Eagles (2-2)
Playoff percentage: 49.5%
Change: UP 19.6%
Next game: vs. Jets
Super Bowl chances: 2.9%
10. Packers (3-1)
Playoff percentage: 50.7%
Change: DOWN 15.2%
Next game: at Cowboys
Super Bowl chances: 2.9%
9. Ravens (2-2)
Playoff percentage: 52.2%
Change: DOWN 27.3%
Next game: at Steelers
Super Bowl chances: 1.9%
8. Bills (3-1)
Playoff percentage: 52.9%
Change: DOWN 10.4%
Next game: at Titans
Super Bowl chances: 0.6%
7. Browns (2-2)
Playoff percentage: 58.6%
Change: UP 29.4%
Next game: at 49ers
Super Bowl chances: 1.5%
6. Rams (3-1)
Playoff percentage: 65.9%
Change: DOWN 18.0%
Next game: at Seahawks
Super Bowl chances: 5.6%
5. 49ers (3-0)
Playoff percentage: 68.9%
Change: UP 4.8%
Next game: vs. Browns
Super Bowl chances: 5.6%
4. Saints (3-1)
Playoff percentage: 69.2%
Change: UP 1.3%
Next game: vs. Buccaneers
Super Bowl chances: 5.8%
3. Cowboys (3-1)
Playoff percentage: 72.6%
Change: DOWN 11.1%
Next game: vs. Packers
Super Bowl chances: 6.9%
2. Chiefs (4-0)
Playoff percentage: 96.3%
Change: UP 1.9%
Next game: vs. Colts
Super Bowl chances: 21.7%
1. Patriots (4-0)
Playoff percentage: 98.9%
Change: UP 1.7%
Next game: at Redskins
Super Bowl chances: 27.7%
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