If you missed Part 1, Part 2, Part 3 or Part 4 of the win total prediction series, check them out. This iteration will look at the Texans, Seahawks, Ravens, and Falcons. These are all teams that have the same win total projection of 8.5.
A reminder about how we are going about this. The structure is simple. Every post will have four teams. There will be a prediction as well as a confidence level. The confidence level will go from one star for the lowest confidence (*) to four stars (****) for the highest confidence. At the end of this exercise, there will be a single post with all of the predictions — and that also allows for changes after training camps wrap up, preseason games finish, trades are finalized, cuts are made and injuries are factored in.
Not familiar with sports wagering terminology? There will be an explanation about gambling odds so no one gets lost. Legalized gambling is already here for a bunch of states, and it’s coming for more. It’s a horrible feeling placing a wager where you don’t understand what’s really going on, so we got you covered. This probably isn’t going to add up to an even amount of wins and losses based on the predictions here. First, that’s tough and second, some bets will be made thinking purely about odds and confidence. Last year, the over-under predictions were 17-13-2.
All win totals will come from Action Network. We will start with the lowest projected win totals and work our way up. That mean’s we will begin with Miami and end with New England.
Anything with a “+” before the number means better odds for the bettor. So +125 means a $100 wager gets you $125 with the win. Anything with a “-” before it means you need to put up that number to get a $100 return. So, a -145 means you need to bet $145 to win $100.
Houston Texans
Win Total: 8.5 (Over +110 /Under -130)
Someone has to win some games in the AFC South. The reviews on these over-under win totals haven’t been great for the conference. After this part of the over-under series, we will have hit on every single AFC South team.
Let’s get this out of the way first: the Houston Texans have the toughest schedule by 2018 win-percentage in 2019. In 2018, the Texans had the easiest schedule (by 2017’s winning percentage). They won 11 games last year. It will apparently be more difficult to replicate those results.
The weakest part of Houston’s team last year was their offensive line. Normally a team like Houston — with a young franchise quarterback, weapons on the outside, and some talented player on defense — would then go out and invest in that offensive line. Narrator voice: The Texans did not fix their offensive line. That’s a problem because Deshaun Watson will take hits. It doesn’t help him stay healthy when he does that. Maybe everything the Texans try on offense is essentially a three-step drop and a heave. They have the wide receivers to do that in DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller V. Fuller is coming off knee surgery, but we’ve seen so many players come back from an ACL injury that it’s more shocking when they don’t return to their previous talent level. Duke Johnson will get to show if he’s a bell-cow running back after Lamar Miller’s knee injury. It’s the line that will kill this offense.
If it’s the line that will kill the Texans offense, it’s lack of depth that will hurt the Texans defense. It’s just not the same unit it was a few years ago. That happens when J.J. Watt gets injured, Whitney Mercilus falls off a bit, and Jadeveon Clowney is holding out before signing the franchise tag. The Texans secondary isn’t anything to write home about either.
After all that negativity, it seems like the under is obvious, but . . .
Prediction:
There’s really no other team in the AFC South that is as good as the Texans. Watson is a franchise quarterback. They can score points. Bill O’Brien is a good-enough coach — meaning he’s getting you to the playoffs but probably isn’t winning a Super Bowl. Houston was 13th in weighted DVOA and finished with only .25 wins above expectation last year. This means they are good and not much has changed.
Over 8.5 wins +110 (Confidence: ****)
Seattle Seahawks
Win Total: 8.5 (Over -120/Under EVEN)
In the last seven years, the Seahawks have finished with nine wins or better. Pete Carroll may be a pretty good coach. Apparently, that fact is lost on some people — especially the people who picked the Seahawks to go under their win total last year. I was not one of those people.
I may be one of those people this year. It’s like trying to time the market. How many hits can the Seahawks’ roster take before they only have Russell Wilson to rely on? Their wide receiving corps is a huge question mark. For some reason, they refused to give Chris Carson the lead back status last year. This year is different and he will be No. 1 in the backfield but still has to split time with Rashaad Penny. Wilson will have to carry this offense. That’s just the way things are.
The Seahawks defense made lemonade out of lemons last year. Their defensive line isn’t dominant anymore. Their coverage schemes are good enough that apparently anyone can step back there and be a good defensive back. Bobby Wagner’s still there. That’s nice!
Seattle actually finished .47 wins below their expectation last year. They had the ninth-best offense according to DVOA and the 14th best defense. The AFC North, NFC South schedule could cost the Seahawks some wins. They’ll most likely split with San Francisco, lose both games to the Rams, and beat the Cardinals twice.
Prediction:
I am going to try and peg the Seahawks win number exactly with eight. Do I trust it? Not at all. Seattle always wins more than nine games but at some point the streak has to end. This is going to be the year.
Under 8.5 wins EVEN (Confidence *)
Baltimore Ravens
Win Total: 8 (Over -110/Under -110)
The old bookmakers and bettors don’t know which way to bet so we will just split it at -110 on both sides of the over-under.
The Ravens lost a lot of veterans on their defense, but at this point, we have to give them the benefit of the doubt when it comes to reloading on that side of the football. Yes, that’s different than what I said about Seattle because Seattle has had a slow drain on their defense. We’ve never seen them fully reload. We’ve seen that with the Ravens. They are disciplined when it comes to roster building.
There was some discussion that Lamar Jackson would throw the ball much more this season. I’d like to see that before I believe it. The Ravens are loaded at running back with Mark Ingram, Gus Edwards, Kenneth Dixon, and rookie Justice Hill. Their wide receiving corps is not as talented and its depth is young and unproven. Maybe they really focus on throwing it to their multiple tight ends, or they run the ball a lot like last year. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.
The Ravens were kind of a surprise playoff team last year. This year, teams will be prepared for their offense. They will be ready for the run. It might not matter. The Ravens finished 1.34 wins below their expectation. They were closer to a 12 win team.
Prediction:
The Ravens should have won more games last year and bookmakers are trying to say they are going to finish .500 or below. The Browns are that good that they steal two wins? Baltimore always splits with Pittsburgh. This seems like an easy win.
Over 8.5 wins -110 (Confidence ****)
Atlanta Falcons
Win Total: 8.5 (Over -145 /Under +125)
The Falcons had a tough year last year and still won seven games. They underperformed their win total expectation by .73 wins. The following players missed extended time: Ricardo Allen, Devonta Freeman, Deion Jones, Andy Levitre, and Keanu Neal. Those are kind of important players to the Falcons lineup.
Atlanta’s offense should be good. They have a new offensive coordinator in Dirk Koetter. That means no more Steve Sarkisian bubble screens or questionable calls by the goal line. Koetter’s offenses were still pretty good when he was the coach in Tampa. Julio Jones is an alien. Freeman is coming back from a year of rest since he missed basically the entire season due to injury. Calvin Ridley should be better than he was last year. He won’t match his touchdown total, but he should be better in his second year. Matt Ryan is still around and is still very good at throwing footballs to his teammates.
The Falcons defense was hit the hardest by those injuries. Deion Jones was ready to break out but never really got going last year. Keanu Neal is in the same boat. It is a bit questionable that the Falcons defense hasn’t been very good when that’s Gus Bradley’s thing, but they’ll have a chance to show their skill this year. There’s no angry Grady Jarrett because he has a long-term deal.
Playing in the NFC South isn’t easy though. The Panthers and Saints should be good. The Bucs will be there. Thanks for showing up Tampa Bay. The Falcons also play the AFC South.
Prediction:
I’m the guy who thinks the Falcons can win the NFC South. They’re too talented to finish below .500
Over 8.5 games -145 (Confidence: ****)
