If you missed Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4, Part 5, Part 6 or Part 7 of the win total prediction series, check them out. This iteration — our last — will look at the Saints, Rams, Chiefs, and Patriots. All four of these teams mad their conference championship games. They are all expected to be in the Super Bowl hunt again in 2019. They also all have win totals above 10 wins.
A reminder about how we are going about this. The structure is simple. Every post will have four teams. There will be a prediction as well as a confidence level. The confidence level will go from one star for the lowest confidence (*) to four stars (****) for the highest confidence. At the end of this exercise, there will be a single post with all of the predictions — and that also allows for changes after training camps wrap up, preseason games finish, trades are finalized, cuts are made and injuries are factored in.
Not familiar with sports wagering terminology? There will be an explanation about gambling odds so no one gets lost. Legalized gambling is already here for a bunch of states, and it’s coming for more. It’s a horrible feeling placing a wager where you don’t understand what’s really going on, so we got you covered. This probably isn’t going to add up to an even amount of wins and losses based on the predictions here. First, that’s tough and second, some bets will be made thinking purely about odds and confidence. Last year, the over-under predictions were 17-13-2.
All win totals will come from Action Network. We will start with the lowest projected win totals and work our way up. That mean’s we will begin with Miami and end with New England.
Anything with a “+” before the number means better odds for the bettor. So +125 means a $100 wager gets you $125 with the win. Anything with a “-” before it means you need to put up that number to get a $100 return. So, a -145 means you need to bet $145 to win $100.
New Orleans Saints
Win Total: 10.5 (Over +135 /Under -150)
The Saints were one blown call away from going to the Super Bowl and playing against the Patriots. They would have had a good shot to win there. The Saints have the type of players that every team worries about defending. New Orleans has a veteran quarterback, a game breaking running back and a receiver who catches everything thrown his way. They lack any other real deadly threats on offense, but those three things do just fine for the Saints.
Their defensive improvement as the season moved along is what helped them stay in the race for a title. They did not start off well. Their young secondary got healthy and was very difficult to go up against. Cameron Jordon led the defense from his position at defensive end. Everything was going as designed . . . and then the missed call heard round the world ruined everything.
The Saints had a chance to win the game in the overtime and they faded. That is kind of a good description of what happened to Drew Brees. His numbers after Thanksgiving last year simply weren’t good. His numbers before that game made it look like a great season when in reality it was a tale of two quarterbacks. One looked like an ageless wonder, the other was father time catching up to an older quarterback.
Which Brees will we get this year? Hopefully, it’s the one that started the season last year. The Saints are more fun that way. Sean Payton could try and use Taysom Hill more but that’s not who the Saints are just yet. They added Jared Cook to help diversify the offense a little bit. This could be one of the last years we can reall appreciate the Saints offense under Brees at the top of his game.
Prediction:
There’s still that nagging feeling that the last third of the season Brees is the Brees we are going to get. Even if that doesn’t happen immediately, the Saints need to take into account that Brees can’t bear all the burden. The Saints in-division schedule won’t be easy unless the Panthers or Falcons bottom out. The AFC South portion of their schedule should help them if they slip up, but 11 wins is a lot to ask.
Under 10.5 wins -150 (Confidence: **)
Los Angeles Rams
Win Total: 10.5 (Over +125/Under -140)
You’ll notice the odds really shift when it comes to these high win totals. The under often has the minus next to it because it’s tough to win more than 10 games. There can’t be any mistakes.
The Rams have a lot of question marks. What are we going to see out of Todd Gurley? Is Jared Goff really the answer at quarterback after he got dismantled in the Super Bowl and had trouble with secondary reads and changing defenses? How healthy is Cooper Kupp? Do we really trust Aqib Talib and Marcus Peters to behave all year in contract years where both are looking to get paid — especially when Talib’s time is running out? Will the league catch up to Sean McVay’s scheme?
There’s a lot that needs to be answered and the Rams need to come up with those answers all while coming off a Super Bowl hangover. Don’t tell me the Super Bowl loss hangover isn’t real. We’ve seen recent teams really struggle after making it all the way to final game only to be stopped by their opponent. The next year gets off to a sluggish start and then it’s time to dig out of a hole. The only team that doesn’t seem to happen to is New England.
The Rams are talented, deep and young on offense. McVay only needs to add a wrinkle here and there and he might not even have to do that. Goff should improve. Gurley will have something to motivate him and he should have a lighter workload than in years past. The Rams still have Aaron Donald.
They could win all 6 of their games in their division very easily. The rest of their schedule is a bit tough with games against the AFC North and NFC South combined with a game in L.A. against the Bears and a trip to Dallas.
Prediction:
The Super Bowl hangover is real. Even if there’s a lighter load for Gurley to save him for the end of the season that means less Gurley early on in the season. That could lead to some losses. The NFC West may sneak up on some people as a very good division. The Rams can’t slip up if they want to get to 11 wins. That’s tough after coming off a Super Bowl loss.
Under 10.5 wins -140 (Confidence *)
Los Angeles Chargers
Win Total: 10.5 (Over +105/Under -115)
Not a huge spread between the over and under odds here. That’s not a surprise because everyone loves the Chiefs.
What’s not to love. Patrick Mahomes has a golden cannon for a right arm. He has been anointed one of the future star quarterbacks of the league and he has the skills to back it up. There will be no suspension for Tyreek Hill so he will be available for all 16 games. The running back by committee should do well. The offensive line won’t be an issue. Travis Kelce can now say he is the best tight end in football and not have people remind him that Rob Gronkowski still played in New England. The Chiefs have it all when it comes to offense.
Their defense is still a question mark but they are changing schemes and bringing in Steve Spagnuolo. Is Frank Clark really that different from Dee Ford? We will see, and Kansas City Fans will probably say yes as long as Clark lines up onsides every play. Tyrann Mathieu should provide some help on the backend of the defense. It’s still a bit of a question on how the defense will play this year, but the Chiefs don’t need that side of the football to be great. They just need to be good enough to give Mahomes and company some cushion. It’s a lot easier for this team to rush the passer when they are so far ahead.
The Chiefs offense will score those points as long as they have Mahomes and Andy Reid as coach. It’s pretty simple. The Chiefs schedule isn’t that daunting at all. They could win three out of four games against the AFC South. They have four winnable games when they play Denver and Oakland. The NFC North portion of their schedule could be difficult, but that feels like three wins somewhere in there. They just need to outpace and outscore their opponents and they are ready to do so.
Prediction:
The Chiefs, Steelers, and Patriots will battle for supremacy in the AFC. The more things change, the more they stay the same. Time is a flat circle. Use whatever saying you want. I’ll quote David Byrne, “same as it ever was.”
Over 10.5 wins +105 (Confidence **)
New England Patriots
Win Total: 11 (Over -125 /Under +115)
Speaking of same as it ever was, the Patriots have the highest listed win total by bookmakers again. This happens all the time. New England is also expected to win more than 11 games if we go by the moneyline number attached to the over and under. That’s absurd.
Until it isn’t absurd when you think about it. The Patriots have played in a historically weak division for years. Yes, the Jets and Bills are going to be improved this year, but we have no idea how much they are going to be improved. That could be something like eight wins. The Dolphins are tanking and the Patriots get them in Miami in Week 2. Even if the Patriots lose their first game — a distinct possibility against the Steelers — their trip to Miami should be much easier than in years past. Let’s say the Patriots take five of their games in the division. That means they have to find six wins against the remaining schedule. And AFC North split is fine. That gets them to 7 wins and three losses. Win three out of four against the NFC East — a distinct possibility and a win against either the Texans or Chiefs put them at 11.
For reference, here are their last few season win totals going backward from 2018: 11, 13, 14, 12, 12, 12, 12, 13, 14, 10, 11, 16, 12, 10, 14, 14. Since 2003, they’ve won fewer than 11 games only twice and one of those years was with Matt Cassel at quarterback.
The offense doesn’t have Rob Gronkowski, but everything else should be fine as long as the line holds up. One injury there and the Patriots are perilously thin — they might be at that thin point already. Until Tom Brady stinks we have to assume he’s an alien and he’s not going to suddenly fall off a cliff. Their wide receiving corps went from a question mark to deep. They have a ton of talent in the backfield. The offense won’t be a problem.
This could be one of New England’s better defensive unit in years. Their defensive backfield should be strong and Stephon Gilmore is a top cover corner in the league. The defensive line added Michael Bennett to fill the hole left by Trey Flowers. The linebacking corps is full of veterans who know Belichick’s scheme. The Patriots could rely on their defense to win them games this year and that’s scary.
Prediction:
Don’t bet against Belichick and Brady until they give us a reason to do so.
Over 11 games -125 (Confidence: ***)
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