We are deep into the preseason, which means it’s time to start making some predictions for over-under win totals. Over the next few weeks, there will be a look at every NFL team’s win total. The structure is simple. There will be a prediction as well as a confidence level. The confidence level will go from one star for the lowest confidence (*) to four stars (****) for the highest confidence. At the end of this exercise, there will be a single post with all of the predictions — and that also allows for changes after training camps wrap up, preseason games finish, trades are finalized, cuts are made and injuries are factored in.
Not familiar with sports wagering terminology? There will be an explanation about gambling odds so no one gets lost. Legalized gambling is already here for a bunch of states, and it’s coming for more. It’s a horrible feeling placing a wager where you don’t understand what’s really going on, so we got you covered. This probably isn’t going to add up to an even amount of wins and losses based on the predictions here. First, that’s tough and second, some bets will be made thinking purely about odds and confidence. Last year, the over-under predictions were 17-13-2.
All win totals will come from Action Network. We will start with the lowest projected win totals and work our way up. That mean’s we will begin with Miami and end with New England.
Anything with a “+” before the number means better odds for the bettor. So +125 means a $100 wager gets you $125 with the win. Anything with a “-” before it means you need to put up that number to get a $100 return. So, a -145 means you need to bet $145 to win $100.
Let’s start with the bottom of the barrel. These teams have over-under totals of six wins or less.
Miami Dolphins
Win Total: 4.5 (Over -130/Under +110)
It’s tough to only win four games in the NFL. The Dolphins may be able to do it. Miami won seven games last year under Adam Gase. He did not return and replaced by Brian Flores. The Dolphins probably shouldn’t have won seven games, and it’s not just because they beat the Patriots on one of the craziest plays we’ve seen in recent NFL history. Their Pythagorean win total was 4.55.
The rebuild in Miami has been a long-time coming and it seems like they are finally embracing the fact that they may have to be very bad to get really good. Josh Rosen and Ryan Fitzpatrick are locked in a quarterback battle for a team that might want to lose games and tank for Tua Tagovailoa. The main point is that the Dolphins are going to be worse than last year and they should have had 4.5 wins.
There is a very good chance that the Dolphins start the season 0-4. They play the Ravens, Patriots, Cowboys, and Chargers. That’ a tough slate and it won’t matter if Rosen or Fitzpatrick is the starter at that time. That means the Dolphins would have to win five of its next 12 games. There are likely losses against the Patriots (again) and the Eagles.
Prediction:
The Dolphins are dedicated to their rebuild and this season won’t be as much about winning as it will be setting a new culture and finding out what players will stay in south Florida past this season. That’s a good thing because there won’t be many wins for the fish this year.
Under 4.5 wins +110 (Confidence: *)
Arizona Cardinals
Win Total: 5 (Over -140/Under +120)
The air raid offense in Arizona should be fun to watch, but Kyler Murray and Kliff Kingsbury could be overmatched in their first year together. It won’t be Murray’s fault of Kingsbury’s scheme that will be the problem. The problem is that the Cardinals are kind of bad everywhere else. Their offensive line was one of the worst in the league last year and they tried to fix it by trading for Marcus Gilbert, who is good if he can stay healthy. That’s been an issue in the past. Justin Pugh and J.R. Sweezy have Pro Football Focus grades of 50.7 and 45.5 respectively. D.J. Humphries has never completed a full 16-game season. So, they didn’t really fix the offensive line.
The defense is also not expected to be great. They won’t have either of their starting cornerbacks with Patrick Peterson suspended and Robert Alford out for an extended period with a leg injury.
We haven’t even addressed the Cardinals schedule. They have a tough 6 games within their division and their AFC division — AFC North — opponents could be the strongest division football. They also have a game at New Orleans. That would mean to get to five games, there would be little room for error.
Prediction:
This is one of those picks where the end result may be a push. Since we can take the +120 on the under, we might as well take it. I’ll be cheering for the Cardinals to prove me wrong, but we might as well take betting value.
Under 5 wins +120 (Confidence *)
Oakland Raiders
Win Total: 6 (Over +105/Under -125)
The Raiders are the first team with a negative number tied to their under which means more people are wagering that the Raiders win fewer than six games.
The reason for that is pretty simple. The Raiders will be relying on a whole new receiving corps this season and the most important one of those receivers has not had a very quiet offseason. Everyone knows what’s happening with Antonio Brown. He’s been a headache for the Raiders since he was acquired from Pittsburgh, but Oakland absolutely needs him on the field if they want to win more than six games.
The Raiders defense shouldn’t inspire confidence. It will be young. The Raiders reached for Clelin Farrell to try and replace Khalil Mack. Those are some big shoes to fill. The Raiders won four games last season and their Pythagorean wins were at three. Oakland was 25 in offensive DVOA and 30 in defensive DVOA. They haven’t really improved.
Unless Derek Carr reverts back to 2016 version the Raiders could be right around six wins. It’ tough to find them on the schedule. They could theoretically beat the Broncos, Lions, Bengals, Jaguars, and Titans in Oakland. That gets us to five. It’s doubtful they will be favored in any of the rest of their games.
Prediction:
The Raiders win six games and this bet ends in a push.
Over 6 wins +105 (Confidence *)
New York Giants
Win Total: 6 (Over +115/Under -135)
The Giants have to face two of the deepest rosters in the league when they play the Cowboys and the Eagles. Washington only has a slightly higher win total. That means one to two division wins.
The real question is whether Giants fans want their team to win more than six games this year. Any record that could entice Eli Manning to return to the Giants next year would be bad news for the future of New York. Manning’s swan song could be this year with a slow start. The moment the Giants drop out of playoff contention they need to start Daniel Jones and look toward the future. That future obviously doesn’t include Eli Manning.
The Giants had five wins last year but probably should have finished closer to seven according to their Pythagorean wins. The thing is that 2018 team had Odell Beckham Jr. This team does not and their wide receiving corps suffered some injuries in camp. Sterling Shepard will have to really carry the load.
The Giants finished 24 in defensive DVOA and essentially traded out one box safety for another box safety when they traded for Jabril Peppers and let Landon Collins walk in free agency. Dexter Lawrence felt like a bit of a reach and he won’t help the Giants manufacture much of a pass rush.
Prediction:
Seven wins could get the Giants one more year of Eli. It seems like ownership has been on almost a season-plus apology tour since Manning was benched in favor of Geno Smith two seasons ago. It’s time for that to end. The only way that can really end is if the Giants lose early in the season. That has a good chance of happening. After that, Jones will have to adjust to NFL games. He’s been good in the preseason, but the regular season is a different beast. The full Giants rebuild will start this year,
Giants Under 6 games -135 (Confidence: **)
