If you missed Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4, Part 5 or Part 6 of the win total prediction series, check them out. This iteration will look at the Browns, Bears, Chargers, and Eagles. These are all teams that have the same win total projection of 9 wins or higher. Every one of these teams should make the playoffs if we trust the lines.
A reminder about how we are going about this. The structure is simple. Every post will have four teams. There will be a prediction as well as a confidence level. The confidence level will go from one star for the lowest confidence (*) to four stars (****) for the highest confidence. At the end of this exercise, there will be a single post with all of the predictions — and that also allows for changes after training camps wrap up, preseason games finish, trades are finalized, cuts are made and injuries are factored in.
Not familiar with sports wagering terminology? There will be an explanation about gambling odds so no one gets lost. Legalized gambling is already here for a bunch of states, and it’s coming for more. It’s a horrible feeling placing a wager where you don’t understand what’s really going on, so we got you covered. This probably isn’t going to add up to an even amount of wins and losses based on the predictions here. First, that’s tough and second, some bets will be made thinking purely about odds and confidence. Last year, the over-under predictions were 17-13-2.
All win totals will come from Action Network. We will start with the lowest projected win totals and work our way up. That mean’s we will begin with Miami and end with New England.
Anything with a “+” before the number means better odds for the bettor. So +125 means a $100 wager gets you $125 with the win. Anything with a “-” before it means you need to put up that number to get a $100 return. So, a -145 means you need to bet $145 to win $100.
Cleveland Browns
Win Total: 9 (Over +105 /Under -115)
Cleveland was going to come into this offseason as everyone’s favorite sleeper team/media darling. They finished on an upswing by Browns’ standards. They had their franchise quarterback in Baker Mayfield. The media loved the Freddie Kitchens hire. The young defense was poised to have a big year simply because they had slightly more experience.
Then the Browns traded for Odell Beckham Jr. and everyone lost their minds temporarily. One of the leagues best receivers was going to play with one of the more entertaining young quarterbacks in a wide-open offense with a talented running back and young defensive corps. People were calling the Browns true Super Bowl contenders. They were picked by experts to win the AFC North. It wasn’t a question of if the Browns would take the league by storm this year, but how fun it would be when they did.
Recently that take has had some cold water thrown on it. It makes sense. This is Kitchens first time as a head coach and there has to be some proof before we buy into his persona which wooed media members and fans alike. Anything was a step up from the Browns previous regime. There’s also one small problem. Notice I didn’t mention offense line in any of the above statements. That’s because it’s an obvious weakness. It’s not a great weakness to have in the AFC North where the Browns will play the Ravens and Steelers twice. It’s tough for Mayfield to be great if he’s lying on his back or running for his life.
We can see the adjustment of the betting public’s perception based on the plus and minus odds on each side of the bet. The under is more likely according to the line.
Prediction:
I think the AFC North has three playoff teams in the division. The Browns are one of them, and if that’s the expectation then we have to take the over. Yes, the offensive line is a bit worrisome. The schedule isn’t easy. The Browns will have high expectations for the first time in a very long time. Young teams can succumb to that pressure. It’s just hard to look at the talent in Cleveland and think they can’t get to at least nine wins. At that point, we take the positive side of the bet.
Over 9 wins -105 (Confidence: **)
Chicago Bears
Win Total: 9 (Over -105/Under -105)
The Bears have a very deep and talented roster. Some have said it is one of the deepest rosters in the NFL. They won 12 games last season which was their first under Matt Nagy. He returns, as does almost every Bear of note who helped Chicago go from worst to first. Khalil Mack could be even better this year if that’s possible. At least he is coming in healthy. Mack winning Defensive Player of the Year shouldn’t be out of the question.
The Bears will go as far as Mitch Trubisky takes them — or allows them to go. Trubisky needs to take a big step to prove to the Bears that he is their franchise quarterback. Chicago simply can’t wait for Trubisky to get up to a championship level because the window is open now. We’ve seen windows close when we thought teams would be dominant for years.
The good news is that Trubisky will be more comfortable in the offense. We saw what experience can bring to quarterbacks. Jared Goff made it to a Super Bowl in his third season and he just landed a huge deal. Maybe Trubisky does the same thing.
The Bears have the weapons on offense. Allen Robinson should improve coming back from a full-season of work as opposed to injury. Tarik Cohen is a weapon. There have been rave reviews about David Montgomery.
The Bears went 12-4 in 2018 and actually finished -.23 wins below their expected total. They can’t win .23 games, but that stat could be interpreted that the Bears didn’t get lucky. They deserved each of their wins last season.
The NFC North is kind of the same. Some people will say the Vikings and Packers will be better, but there’s no guarantee that will happen.
Prediction:
When it feels like everyone is underestimating a team, it’s often because a lot of people are underestimating a team. The Bears had fifth best weighted DVOA last year. They didn’t get worse this offseason.
Over 9 wins -105 (Confidence ****)
Los Angeles Chargers
Win Total: 9.5 (Over -140/Under +125)
The Chargers always seem cursed. They are coming off one of their best years since the LaDanian Tomlinson-early Philip Rivers years and they were primed to make another run at the playoffs. Then Derwin James came down with a foot injury. Melvin Gordon’s holdout is still on-going. This is why the Chargers can’t have nice things.
They have a veteran quarterback. They have an interesting wide receiving corps as long as Kennan Allen is healthy. Their defensive front seven has Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa. They have strong corners. The Chargers should compete against the Chiefs for AFC West supremacy.
It just feels like the Patriots exposed a weakness in the AFC divisional playoff game and that weakness wasn’t completely fixed. Teams can run against Los Angeles. They can go heavy and just pound away at the Chargers front. Bringing in Thomas Davis doesn’t suddenly fix that issue.
Los Angeles finished one game over it’s projected win total and was third in overall weighted DVOA last season.
Prediction:
This is a bit of a tough choice. The Chargers should win 10 games but something feels off. It’s hard to know if we should really trust Anthony Lynn as a coach. Los Angeles looked competitive in almost every game last season. They were one of the best teams in the league and then they got trucked by the Patriots. The game wasn’t competitive. The schedule makes it much easier to take the over though. They have four winnable games in the division and an easy win against the Dolphins. That means they need to go slightly below .500 the rest of the way.
Over 9.5 wins -140 (Confidence ***)
Philadelphia Eagles
Win Total: 10 (Over -140 /Under +125)
If the Bears don’t have the deepest roster in the league it’s because it’s the Eagles who actually own that distinction. The Eagles front office has done a great job building young talented depth on their roster. The only place where the Eagles may have a weakness is in the defensive backfield and that doesn’t matter that much because Philadelphia’s defensive line is so talented.
Their wide receiving corps is talented and has three players who bring a different type of skillset that complement each other. They have multiple running backs who can fit any style the Eagles want to play. Carson Wentz was an MVP candidate only two seasons ago before tearing his ACL. He is fully back now and just got an lucrative extension this offseason. The offensive line is good. Zach Ertz is one of the league’s top tight ends.
The only real offseason loss for the Eagles was Nick Foles. Foles wasn’t going to start. His time in Philly had come to an end. Other than that the Eagles bring back a team that won a Super Bowl in the 2017 season and almost beat the Saints in the playoffs last season. If they won that game, we could’ve had a Super Bowl rematch.
Prediction:
The Eagles have four wins in their division alone. They split with the Cowboys and that’s five wins and one loss. The rest of the schedule should allow them to win five or six games.
Over 10 games -140 (Confidence: ***)
