If you missed Part 1 or Part 2 of the win total prediction series, check them out. This iteration will look at the Bills, Broncos, Jets, and Panthers. All are predicted to win fewer than eight games by the bookmakers.
A reminder about how we are going about this. The structure is simple. Every post will have four teams. There will be a prediction as well as a confidence level. The confidence level will go from one star for the lowest confidence (*) to four stars (****) for the highest confidence. At the end of this exercise, there will be a single post with all of the predictions — and that also allows for changes after training camps wrap up, preseason games finish, trades are finalized, cuts are made and injuries are factored in.
Not familiar with sports wagering terminology? There will be an explanation about gambling odds so no one gets lost. Legalized gambling is already here for a bunch of states, and it’s coming for more. It’s a horrible feeling placing a wager where you don’t understand what’s really going on, so we got you covered. This probably isn’t going to add up to an even amount of wins and losses based on the predictions here. First, that’s tough and second, some bets will be made thinking purely about odds and confidence. Last year, the over-under predictions were 17-13-2.
All win totals will come from Action Network. We will start with the lowest projected win totals and work our way up. That mean’s we will begin with Miami and end with New England.
Anything with a “+” before the number means better odds for the bettor. So +125 means a $100 wager gets you $125 with the win. Anything with a “-” before it means you need to put up that number to get a $100 return. So, a -145 means you need to bet $145 to win $100.
Buffalo Bills
Win Total: 7 (Over -125/Under +105)
There isn’t an NFL fanbase that deserves to have a competitive team more than Bills Mafia. Buffalo is a unique sports town. People who grow up there are absolutely obsessed with the Sabres and the Bills. There might as well not be other sports that exist in the country. It’s hockey and football and chicken wings. That’s about it for Bills fans.
Buffalo may have found its quarterback savior in Josh Allen, but he needs to improve. There were concerns about his accuracy coming into the NFL and he did not do anything to allay those worries last year. He ended the season with a 52.8 percent completion percentage. Of course, any Bills fan will tell you that the reason his accuracy was poor was that he didn’t have anyone to throw to. The Bills fixed that issue by signing speedster John Brown and sure-handed slot receiver Cole Beasley. Zay Jones could also make a leap this year if he gets consistent playing time. The offense also has an interesting backfield with LeSean McCoy, national treasure Frank Gore, and now much-hyped rookie Devin Singletary.
The defense will be good. We know what a Sean McDermott defense can do at this point. We saw it in Carolina and we saw it in his first two years in Buffalo. It’s going to be tough to move the ball against his scheme. The Bills were No. 2 in defensive DOVA last year. That’s very good.
The problem for the Bills may be their schedule. They have two tough games against New England. The Jets and the Bills will be battling for what team will be called up and coming in the AFC East and that home and home could end up a split. They have three tough games against the AFC North and they also play the Bengals. The games against the Cowboys and Eagles could be tough.
Prediction:
Allen proved he could run the ball if you give him open lanes. We know he can throw deep passes and him slinging the ball to John Brown on a go route will be a thing of beauty. The problem is that Allen needs to prove he can consistently hit short and intermediate routes to move the ball down the field. The Bills offense was bad — like 31st in the NFL in DVOA bad. You’re telling me that Brown and Beasley are going to make it that much better? The Bills won six games last year and overperformed their win expectation by 1.5 games. Plus, we get the positive side of the handle if we take the under.
Under 7 wins +105 (Confidence: **)
Denver Broncos
Win Total: 7 (Over -110/Under -110)
The Broncos are a perfect -110 split which means either the bets are coming in evenly on both sides or bookmakers have no idea which way to lean. It’s calling out for a seven-win season and a push. We can’t bet the push because this post is not called over, under, or push.
The Broncos are what they are at this point and that’s a dominant defense that could help a team win a Super Bowl and a mediocre offense without an answer at quarterback. Yes, Joe Flacco is not the answer at quarterback unless the question has to do with someone being tall and throwing footballs. Our own Doug Farrar has covered Flacco to the Broncos.
There are some folks out there who have faith in Vic Fangio. There is no doubt that the veteran defensive coordinator and new head coach will put out a ferocious defense. There are doubts that the offense will be able to keep pace with the defense and that Denver will be a one-sided team again in 2019.
The good news is that Denver was No, 13 in overall DVOA last year. They underperformed their win expectation by 1.3 last year and they won six games. They still have to play the Chiefs and Chargers twice which is not easy, but Denver is one of the few teams with a distinct home-field advantage at Mile High.
Prediction:
The Broncos plays the AFC South and the NFC North. A split there should get them to seven wins and it’s very possible to do. Really, the bet is to take the push, but let’s give Fangio a chance. If he doesn’t win seven games this year it could mean the end of the Flacco era, a rebuild in Denver, and maybe even some blame for John Elway who has been able to remain unscathed even though he hasn’t found a quarterback since Peyton Manning fell into his lap.
Over 7 wins -110 (Confidence *)
New York Jets
Win Total: 7.5 (Over -125/Under +105)
Adam Gase offenses have historically played at a snail’s pace. The Jets offense feels like it should play a bit faster with second-year Sam Darnold at the helm and free-agent signee Le’Veon Bell in the fold. There are a lot of people expecting the Jets offense to make a leap this year. Maybe they will be efficient with the number of plays they have, but here’s to hoping Gase also speeds things up a bit.
Gase teams have a history of overperforming expectations — and their Pythagorean win totals as witnessed in Miami last year. The Jets offense has talent, but their defense is a bit of a question mark. Jamaal Adams is great. Leonard Williams should be ready to finally make a leap this year. The C.J. Mosley signing was a bit expensive, but he’s a good leader and if the Jets wanted him they had to pay him. The problem is that the Jets don’t have anyone at corner. Having cornerbacks is kind of important if they want to stop the pass. New York may need to do that at some point this year.
The schedule isn’t even that bad. They play the Patriots twice and Gase was always able to sneak a win against them in Miami and now he has better talent. They could split with the Bills. They might not have to worry about pass defense when they play the Ravens. The Giants and Redskins are both ripe for the picking.
Prediction:
The Jets are kind of a trendy pick when it comes to teams that could make the leap this year and I am a sucker for trendy picks. I am also biased toward USC products. Gase isn’t particularly exciting as a coach, but eight wins are very doable. Also, their new uniforms are great.
Over 7.5 wins -125 (Confidence ***)
Carolina Panthers
Win Total: 7.5 (Over -190/Under +160)
The books are absolutely begging people to take the under. Betting the over means putting down $190 to win $100. Those are not great odds if you’re looking to make money.
Here’s something you shouldn’t do, but I will talk about it anyway. The Panthers record under Ron Rivera is as follows: 6-10, 7-9, 12-4, 7-8-1, 15-1, 6-10, 11-5, 7-9. The trend is obvious. The Panthers have a bad year, followed by a good year. That trend screams for everyone to bet the over. That’s a horrible reason to do so, but it’s a trend none the less.
Cam Newton’s shoulder injury should scare any Carolina fan. The Panthers have Kyle Allen and Will Grier on their depth chart behind the former NFL MVP and best hat wearer in the game. Every fantasy football player is excited to see what Christian McCaffrey can do this year. Some people are saying he has a chance to get 1,000 yards rushing and 1,000 yards receiving. That would be pretty good. The wide receiving corps is a bit of a hodgepodge of talent, but it’s always been that way for the Panthers.
The defense will be good because the defense is always good. Luke Keuchly will patrol from sideline to sideline. The defensive line is deep. The outside linebackers are athletic. It’s a typical Panthers football team. We kind of know what to expect out of them in some ways.
The NFC South will be a tough division because it is loaded with talent — and the Bucs. The rest of the schedule isn’t much easier with the AFC South and NFC West.
Prediction:
It’s time for the streak to break. No one really knows how healthy Newton is. He will be supposedly using a new throwing motion, but that’s concerning. His footwork has never been great in the pocket. The schedule is tough, and teams will be prepared for the Panthers. They don’t have a game-breaking receiver on the roster to help out McCaffrey. At some point, the Panthers could tune out Ron Rivera. Those plus odds are too high to pass up.
Under 7.5 games +160 (Confidence: *)
