If you missed Part 1 of the win total prediction series, it’s right here. This iteration will look at the Bengals, Redskins, Bucs, and Lions. All are predicted to win fewer than seven games by the bookmakers.
A reminder about how we are going about this. The structure is simple. Every post will have four teams. There will be a prediction as well as a confidence level. The confidence level will go from one star for the lowest confidence (*) to four stars (****) for the highest confidence. At the end of this exercise, there will be a single post with all of the predictions — and that also allows for changes after training camps wrap up, preseason games finish, trades are finalized, cuts are made and injuries are factored in.
Not familiar with sports wagering terminology? There will be an explanation about gambling odds so no one gets lost. Legalized gambling is already here for a bunch of states, and it’s coming for more. It’s a horrible feeling placing a wager where you don’t understand what’s really going on, so we got you covered. This probably isn’t going to add up to an even amount of wins and losses based on the predictions here. First, that’s tough and second, some bets will be made thinking purely about odds and confidence. Last year, the over-under predictions were 17-13-2.
All win totals will come from Action Network. We will start with the lowest projected win totals and work our way up. That mean’s we will begin with Miami and end with New England.
Anything with a “+” before the number means better odds for the bettor. So +125 means a $100 wager gets you $125 with the win. Anything with a “-” before it means you need to put up that number to get a $100 return. So, a -145 means you need to bet $145 to win $100.
Cincinnati Bengals
Win Total: 6 (Over +110/Under -130)
Under Marvin Lewis, it was kind of easy to pencil the Bengals in for seven to nine wins and call it a day. They were never too high and never too low. Even in their best years, they’d be a lock to lose in the first round of the playoffs. It was a gambler’s sun rising in the east and setting in the west. We don’t have Lewis to count on this year.
Zac Taylor will bring in a new offense to try and get the most out of Andy Dalton and company. They may have to do so without A.J. Green for the early part of the season. Tyler Boyd is good, but he’s much better when Green is on the field to create one on one coverage for Boyd. No one knows what to expect out of the oft-injured Tyler Eifert. The Bengals tried to fix their offensive line through the draft and Jonah Williams was promptly injured and will miss the season. Bengals fans have to have nightmares about Bobby Hart getting extended playing time. Joe Mixon won’t be able to run the ball with no holes from his line and Dalton can’t throw the ball when he’s on his back because a Bengals lineman was a turnstile on third down.
The defensive is good but it’s getting older. Carlos Dunlap and Geno Watkins have been there forever. Preston Brown is taking over Vontaze Burfict’s spot. The rest of the defense are names we’ve heard before that are solid, yet unspectacular.
The Bengals will have a hard time in their division. Every team is a playoff contender and has real hopes for going deep in the playoffs. That’s not great. Cincinnati also plays at Seattle, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and Los Angeles to face the Rams in their first eight games. That’s a tough first half of the season and it’s tougher if Green misses extended time to recover from an injury in a contract year.
Prediction:
The normal play would be to take the over because it has the plus-number and if the Bengals win six games it’s a push. The problem is we have no idea if Zac Taylor is a good coach or not. We know he will push the pace and put in some Sean McVay concepts but we don’t know what will happen if the Bengals start off slow. Sometimes I wish you could bet on a push.
Under 6 wins -130 (Confidence: **)
Washington Redskins
Win Total: 6.5 (Over +120/Under -140)
The Redskins enter the season with Jay Gruden firmly on the hot seat. They have no idea if Trent Williams is going to play for the team or hold out for an extended period of time. They don’t know who their quarterback will be. If it’s Case Keenum it’s not great. Keenum is a poor man’s Kirk Cousins. If it’s Dwayne Haskins that’s not great either since he will go through growing pains. The wide receiving corps leaves something to be desired.
The defense seems like it could be good, but that means the Redskins could play a boring brand of football relying on their defense to win games and grinding things out when they have the football.
The Redskins ranked 29th in team DVOA in 2018 and 1.71 wins over their Pythagorean win expectation last season. That means they should have won around five games.
Prediction:
All the signs are pointing down. This situation screams to take the under.
Under 6.5 wins -140 (Confidence ****)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Win Total: 6.5 (Over -110/Under -110)
The Bucs are the first team even betters don’t know what to do with. The -110/-110 split means even money is coming in both sides and the bookmakers are comfortable without bettors paying a higher vig on either side.
Here’s one prediction: the Bucs will try and make every game possible a shootout. There have been great reviews about Chris Godwin since camp started and he’s been pushed by a lot of fantasy football experts. Jameis Winston has no problem throwing the ball into tight windows and forcing passes where they sometimes should not go. Mike Evans is still an absolute physical freak outside. The Bucs lack a pass-catching back, but Ronald Jones may actually show something if he gets consistent touches running the football.
As for the defense, they may not be good at all. It’s like the Bucs are the opposite of the Redskins.
If there’s one reason to have faith in the Bucs it’s because of new coach Bruce Arians. Arians spent a short time in the announcers’ booth before coming back to coach. He’s going to let Byron Leftwich call the plays on offense, which is usually Arians’ job but maybe the older coach is just taking a step back. Todd Bowles will run the defense.
The Bucs underperformed their expected win total by a full game last year.
Prediction:
This is going to sound weird, but the Bucs are kind of a sleeper. If they can get things clicking on offense and force teams to score a lot of points they could win some games. Maybe I have too much faith in Bruce Arians.
Over 6.5 wins +105 (Confidence **)
Detroit Lions
Win Total: 6.5 (Over -150/Under +130)
Either the bettors love the Lions going over or bookmakers have a feeling about the win total in Detroit because that’s a rather large vig split.
The Lions enter their second year under Matt Patricia and he’s trying to build a Patriots midwest. It’s kind of worked for Bill O’Brien in Texas and the jury is out on what’s happening with Mike Vrabel in Tennessee. As for Patricia, maybe he learned a few things last year. The high point of the Lions season was beating the Patriots early on in the year. Everything went downhill from there.
The Lions seem to be creating an offense that wants to grind things out. Kerryon Johnson and backup C.J. Anderson can help them do that. Matthew Stafford has put up some borderline Hall-of-Fame numbers during his career — seriously, check them out — but doesn’t have any huge wins to show for it. The Lions are much like the Bengals in that they flame out early if they make the playoffs.
Stafford has weapons on the outside in Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones. Danny Amendola was added as a security blanket if needed.
It’s going to be tough to run the football against the Lions front-four but the only team in their division that will really try to do that is the Vikings. Speaking of the division, the NFC North is stacked. The Bears should be good again. The Packers have Aaron Rodgers which is enough to say they will be competitive. The Vikings had a down year last year but have talent and made it to the NFC title game two years ago.
The Lions underperformed their win expectation by .77 games last year and won six games. That makes this decision even tougher. The Lions don’t have a bad schedule outside of their division.
Prediction:
Matt Patricia needs to win this year or he could be out of a job quickly. That’s a tough situation for the Lions as they are trying to change the culture in Detroit on the fly and compete in a stacked division. The rest of the Lions schedule means they could make a serious run at seven or eight wins.
Over 6.5 games -150 (Confidence: **)
