Jameis Winston's Hail Mary 49-yard TD to Marquez Callaway at the end of the first half had a 9.9% completion probability, the most improbable completion in the NFL this season.
🔹 Winston under pressure
🔹 Air Distance: 57.2 yds
🔹 Target Separation: 0.5 yds#NOvsWAS | #Saints pic.twitter.com/zMqr6PCHZ7— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) October 10, 2021
Whew buddy. Between the distance the pass needed to travel and the number of defenders both downfield and crowded around Jameis Winston, the New Orleans Saints’ successful touchdown catch by Marquez Callaway was rated as the “most improbable completion” of the 2021 season by NFL Next Gen Stats, with an estimated success rate of just 9.9%.
That’s wild, and it speaks to a lot of factors. Winston’s big arm and ability to place the ball accurately even at long range. Callaway’s confidence at the catch point. The work the Saints have put in preparing for these “Hail Mary” situations each week.
They don’t put these points on the board without the right mix of elements, and they deserve all the credit in the world for pulling off such an unlikely feat. The time Callaway has had to establish chemistry with Winston while the team’s best receivers have been out should pay off once they return; expect Michael Thomas and Tre’Quan Smith to do a lot to open up the field for the second-year pro.
