Winning the NFL’s Offensive Rookie of the Year award doesn’t guarantee a long and prosperous career — but you’ll find plenty of stars among its ranks. Whether those players grind impressively en route to the Hall of Fame (Randy Moss, Adrian Peterson) or burn bright and fast before fading out (Todd Gurley, Robert Griffin III) is typically up to the injury gods,
The 2022 Draft dropped another crop of low-cost impact players on the league. Some are leading unlikely playoff runs on either coast (Garrett Wilson, Kenneth Walker III). Others are standouts on bad teams (Dameon Pierce, Chris Olave). But all are building blocks for teams with Super Bowl aspirations, whether that’s this winter or a few years down the line.
So who are the frontrunners for Offensive Rookie of the Year after 10 weeks of the 2022 season?
Honorable mention: Breece Hall :(, Garrett Wilson, Bailey Zappe
Hall had a chance to run away with this award before tearing his ACL in Week 7. After limited touches in Week 1 he emerged as a playmaking threat in both the run and pass games out of the backfield. He averaged just under six yards per carry and 14 yards per catch between Weeks 2 and 7, but sadly won’t return to the lineup until 2023.
Wilson has been similarly explosive for the Jets but just inconsistent enough to fall out of top three consideration. He’s on pace for a shade under 1,000 receiving yards, which is great for any rookie but especially one catching passes from human Choose Your Own Adventure novel Zach Wilson.
Zappe is here because he’s 2022’s best rookie quarterback (so far) and could be called on to replace an ineffective Mac Jones as the season wears on. Of course this just means he’s better than Kenny Pickett or Malik Willis, so he’s understandably a significant longshot to win.
3. Dameon Pierce, Houston Texans
There haven’t been many bright spots in yet another rebuilding season for the Texans, but the former fourth-round pick qualifies. After splitting time with Rex Burkhead early in the season, head coach Lovie Smith came to his senses and made Pierce his full-time tailback.
In the eight games since he’s run for 739 yards while adding 21 catches from the backfield. He’s getting this done as part of a roster with few other viable threats in the lineup, making his production even more impressive. Pierce leads the lead with 22 broken tackles. His 2.6 yards after contact is fifth-best in the NFL. His 129 rushing yards over expected (RYOE) is a top 10 mark.
2022 is all about Houston’s efforts to figure out which pieces fit and which don’t. Pierce not only fits, but looks like a future star doing so.
2. Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints
Olave’s status as a frontrunner for this award has dimmed thanks to New Orleans’ ongoing quarterback woes; Andy Dalton has thrown for just 384 yards and one touchdown in his last two games. That’s put a dent in the Ohio State star’s production, but he remains a vital presence in an otherwise moribund offense.
Olave leads all rookies in receptions and receiving yards despite missing Week 6 due to a head injury. He’s on pace for a 1,200-yard season in an offense on pace to barely throw for more than 4,000.
The question is whether he can keep that up as opposing defenses adjust to a world where he’s clearly the team’s top threat. Michael Thomas is done for the season and Alvin Kamara has been limited the last three weeks, rushing for only 118 total yards on fewer than 3.4 yards per carry. That’s going to dial up the scrutiny on New Orleans’ top targeted receiver — and could be an issue for a player bolstered by a litany of blue chip wideouts in his four years as a Buckeye.
1. Kenneth Walker III, Seattle Seahawks
Walker stepped into the spotlight after Rashaad Penny suffered a season-ending injury and has been just as efficient as the veteran he replaced. In five games between Weeks 5 and 9 he ran for 512 yards and seven touchdowns to give Geno Smith a sturdy counterpunch out of the backfield.
Walker’s advanced stats aren’t as impressive as Penny’s (or Pierce’s for that matter) but neither of those guys can match his nose for the end zone. Before Week 10’s lackluster performance in Munich, Walker had scored seven touchdowns in five games. Otherwise he’s a top 20 runner in terms of both yards after contact (2.0) and broken tackles (seven). The same goes for his 112 RYOE.
The factor working in his favor is the fact his team is winning with him as a focal point. Seattle is 4-0 when he gets at least 18 carries and 2-4 otherwise. This hasn’t been the run-heavy attack we may have expected from Pete Carroll’s offense, but it’s been devastating in the right circumstances. That’s thanks to Walker, who has his team in position to win the NFC West.
