When Ben Roethlisberger suffered a season-ending injury in Week 2 and Eli Manning was benched after two games, a huge question presented itself. Are Roethlisberger and Manning, both closing in on the end of their careers, material for the Pro Football Hall of Fame?
I asked myself that question and didn’t have a definitive answer on either one. My gut reaction was that both were borderline. I’ve never been one of those writers that thinks of myself as a coach or a personnel guy. So, I reached out for help.
I tapped two former NFL head coaches, a current general manager and a former general manager. I asked for their opinions on Roethlisberger and Manning. While I was at it, I also asked their opinions on all the current NFL quarterbacks who even have a remote case for the Hall of Fame.
None of the four wanted to be named or quoted. So, what’s about to follow is my opinion and my words after hearing their thoughts. I’ve broken it up into three categories:
- Already has a bust waiting in Canton
- Could go either way
- Still work to be done
I’m leaving out really young guys such as Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray. They’re all to great starts, but it’s way too early to start thinking about whether they deserve a spot in the Hall of Fame.
Here we go …
Still work to be done:
Cam Newton
Newton has Hall of Fame talent, but it’s not matched by his production. When he’s good – like he was in 2015 – he’s great. That year, he was the league’s Most Valuable Player and led the Panthers to the Super Bowl. But on the flip side, there have been times when Newton has been terrible – like in the first two games of this season before he went out with a foot injury. As it stands right now, Newton is not a Hall of Famer. He ranks No. 54 in career passing yards and his .544 winning percentage is less than stellar. He needs to do a lot more to get into the Hall of Fame. He is only 30, but he’s not a “young” 30. Besides the foot, Newton also has had major shoulder surgery and there has been speculation he’s breaking down physically. If Newton is forced to retire soon, he’ll have no shot at the Hall of Fame.
Still work to be done:
Matthew Stafford
Stafford has some nice numbers. He has 39,913 passing yards to rank No. 21 on the all-time list and, in two games, he could move ahead of Johnny Unitas and Joe Montana. But Stafford is really bad when he’s bad. Most of all, he’s got a .466 winning percentage. He has no shot at Canton unless the Lions suddenly win a couple Super Bowls, and that’s not going to happen.
Still work to be done:
Joe Flacco
Flacco really only even makes this list because he won Super Bowl XLVII with Baltimore and was the game’s Most Valuable Player in a brilliant postseason. But Flacco never really has carried a team. His .580 winning percentage isn’t all that impressive, because he had the luxury of playing with some great talent around him. But Flacco’s 39,680 career passing yards rank No. 22. Flacco now is with the Broncos and needs a few more big years. He has been a nice quarterback, but he won’t be a Hall of Famer.
Still work to be done:
Matt Ryan
Although Ryan will probably move past Warren Moon and into the top 10 in career passing yards in the next two or three games, the Atlanta quarterback is no lock for the Hall of Fame. His .572 winning percentage is solid, but the only time he really carried the Falcons was in 2016 when he was named the NFL’s Most Valuable Player and took them to the Super Bowl. But that Super Bowl appearance isn’t going to help Ryan because the Falcons choked and blew a 28-3 lead to New England. Ryan is 34. He can still pad his stats and end up with Hall of Fame numbers. But, to get into Canton, Ryan has to win more games.
Still work to be done:
Russell Wilson
All Wilson has to do is keep playing another five years or so and he’ll get a bust in Canton. He currently is playing the best football of his career and hasn’t thrown an interception this season — and the Seahawks look like a team that could go a long way in the postseason. But the best thing you can say about Wilson is that he has changed the game and cleared the way for smaller quarterbacks to have success. Along with Drew Brees, Wilson has demonstrated that you don’t have to be 6-foot-5 to be a good quarterback. Eight years into his career, the 5-foot-11 Wilson has a .678 winning percentage and a Super Bowl championship. All Wilson has to do is keep winning and building on his 27,328 career passing yards and he’ll have a spot in the Hall of Fame.
Could go either way:
Philip Rivers
Rivers is the most polarizing name on this list. The opinions of our experts varied more on the Chargers quarterback than on anyone else. One expert even compared him to Archie Manning, a quarterback that put up numbers, but never won anything because he played on a bad team. That’s a bit of a stretch, because Rivers’ Chargers have been better than the Saints were with Manning. But it’s still a decent point because Rivers and the Chargers haven’t won big games. But Rivers does have impressive numbers. He’s eighth in all-time passing yards with 56,441 and should move ahead of Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger on Sunday. I’m not convinced Rivers is a Hall of Famer. But then again, Dan Marino and Dan Fouts never won a Super Bowl and they’re both in the Hall of Fame.
Could go either way:
Eli Manning
The best thing you can say about Manning is that he won two Super Bowls with the Giants and was MVP in both games. The worst thing you can say is that Manning didn’t carry his team. He definitely was more than a game manager, but he wasn’t a superstar like his brother Peyton. Although Manning ranks seventh in all-time passing yards (56,537), that’s a tribute to his longevity and durability more than anything. Aside from the two Super Bowls, he didn’t win big. His overall winning percentage as a starter is .500. Does Manning get into the Hall of Fame? This one’s pretty much a coin flip. The power of playing in the league’s biggest media market could help. But, if Manning does get in, he likely will have to wait awhile.
Could go either way:
Ben Roethlisberger
When I first started thinking about this project, I viewed Roethlisberger and Eli Manning as equals and thought they were borderline Hall of Fame candidates. Then, I talked to my experts and my opinion changed on Roethlisberger. Why? Because one expert said he viewed the standard as whether a quarterback carried his team. That’s the difference between Roethlisberger and Manning. At times, Roethlisberger has carried the Steelers. He’s won two Super Bowls and has a .667 overall winning percentage. He also is sixth on the all-time passing yardage list with 56,545. Roethlisberger, 37, has said he plans to return in 2020, but he also has talked a lot about retirement in the past. Either way, he’s probably done enough to earn a spot in the Hall of Fame. He might not be a first-ballot inductee like Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers will be, but Roethlisberger won’t have to wait long to get in.
Already has a bust waiting in Canton:
Aaron Rodgers
Rodgers is a first-ballot Hall of Famer. He’s followed in the footsteps of Brett Favre and Bart Starr as iconic quarterbacks in Green Bay. Rodgers probably cemented his spot in Canton when he led the Packers to victory in Super Bowl XLV and was the game’s Most Valuable Player. He also was the NFL’s MVP in 2011 and 2014. At 35, Rodgers appears to have some good years left. He currently is 16th in all-time passing yards with 44,534. But two more good years would put him in the top 10.
Already has a bust waiting in Canton:
Drew Brees
As great as Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers are and have been, Brees is in his own category in one unique way. Who’s the only quarterback to lift up an entire city? Brees. When he came to the Saints in 2006, New Orleans and the franchise were a wreck. The city had been slammed by Hurricane Katrina. But Brees and the Saints gave citizens something to rally around, and the quarterback and his family made themselves part of the city’s fabric. On the field, Brees has shown you don’t need to be 6-foot-5 to be a good quarterback. At 6-foot-0, he’s the NFL’s all-time leading passer with 74,845 yards and has a .589 winning percentage. He also led the Saints to their only Super Bowl victory, in the 2009 season. Brees is a first-ballot Hall of Famer.
Already has a bust waiting in Canton:
Tom Brady
I was in the Hall of Fame voting room on the day Joe Montana got elected. This is proof that it does matter who the presenter is or what is said. Montana’s presenter simply stood up and said something along the lines of, “Ladies and gentlemen, I give you Joe Montana. Any questions?” There were none. It will be the same thing with Brady, who has won six Super Bowls and counting for the Patriots. Brady has a .780 winning percentage, including the postseason and is second in all-time passing yards with 72,257.
Pat Yasinskas has covered the NFL since 1993. He has worked for The Tampa Tribune, The Charlotte Observer and ESPN.com and writes for numerous national magazines and websites. He also has served as a voter for the Pro Football Hall of Fame.
