The first round of the NFL draft is a veritable minefield with each of the 32 spots presenting its own opportunity for a pitfall.
And with the odds for those picks panning out being about as random as a coinflip, the list of busts is a long one.
But who are the bad selections that really stand out? After picking the best pick at every spot since 2002, here’s a look at the worst missteps at each selection spot since the first round went to 32 picks.
1. JaMarcus Russell, Oakland Raiders (2007)
Not only is JaMarcus Russell the worst No. 1 pick of our defined time period, but he’s also arguably the worst No. 1 pick of all time. Russell lasted in the league only three seasons, throwing 18 touchdowns to 23 picks as a bad work ethic and indifferent attitude spelled his demise.
2. Charles Rogers, Detroit Lions (2003)
The Michigan State wide receiver is a sad cautionary tale. Rogers became addicted to painkillers after two early injuries in his NFL career, was suspended by the Lions for drug abuse in 2005 and never played again. He died of liver failure in November 2019 at the age of 38.
3. Dion Jordan, Miami Dolphins (2013)
After playing all 16 games his rookie season, Jordan received two different suspensions his second year for violating the NFL’s performance-enhancing substance policy. He did not play a down in 2016 after being reinstated and was released in 2017 after failing a physical.
4. Aaron Curry, Seattle Seahawks (2009)
Curry never lived up to the expectations of being a high pick — not to mention $34 million of guaranteed money — and lost his starting job on the Seahawks two games into his third season. He was cut by the Raiders in 2012 after spending most of the season on the PUP list and didn’t make the team out of Giants training camp the following year. He retired from football just over four years since being drafted.
5. Justin Blackmon, Jacksonville Jaguars (2012)
Blackmon battled substance abuse issues from the get-go and was suspended on two different occasions in 2013 for violating the NFL’s substance-abuse policy. He was never reinstated into the NFL, and his career line reads six touchdowns over just 20 games played.
6. Vernon Gholston, New York Jets (2008)
A physical wonder at the combine, the Ohio State linebacker started just five games over three seasons with the Jets. His career ended in 2012, when he was waived from the Rams’ training camp.
7. Kevin White, Chicago Bears (2016)
White received a lot of cheers by being the Bears’ pick during the draft in Chicago. But injuries and bad luck decimated his career. White missed his entire rookie season after sustaining a season-ending injury during training camp and played only four games during his second season. He then broke his shoulder blade in the 2017 season opener. He was cut by the Cardinals in 2019 and still hasn’t scored a touchdown in the NFL.
8. Justin Gilbert, Cleveland Browns (2014)
State was so bad that he makes the Browns picking Johnny Manziel 14 picks later seem like a great selection. Gilbert played two seasons for the Browns before being traded to the Steelers, where he lasted a season before never being heard from again. (Aaron Donald, by the way, was drafted four picks after Gilbert. Think the Browns could have used him?)
9. Dee Milliner, New York Jets (2013)
2013 was a poor first round, and it’s reflected with four picks being present on this list. Milliner started a total of only 14 games for the Jets over three seasons, and the team waived him in 2016.
10. Josh Rosen, Arizona Cardinals (2018)
The book still isn’t closed on Rosen, so this is more of a comment on the pick rather than the player. GM Steve Keim took Rosen 10th in 2018, then spent the No. 1 in 2019 on Kyler Murray. Even if that was the right move to make, it doesn’t change the fact the Cardinals had two top 10 picks in consecutive years and ended up only keeping one. (Rosen’s trade to Miami brought back a second-rounder in 2019 and a fifth-rounder in 2020.)
11. Aaron Maybin, Buffalo Bills (2009)
The Penn State linebacker never lived up to expectations and was waived by the Bills at the start of his third season. After stints with the Bengals and Jets, Maybin played one game in the CFL and then retired. He is now a well-known artist.
12. Wendell Bryant, Arizona Cardinals (2002)
Bryant struggled with drug and alcohol issues during his three seasons with the Cardinals. He was suspended for the 2005 season after his third strike on the league’s substance abuse program and never played in the NFL again.
13. Nick Fairley, Detroit Lions (2011)
Fairly was a big talent coming out of Auburn, but his career was plagued by inconsistent play, injuries and run-ins with the law. He played with the Rams and Saints after the Lions and was out of football by 2016.
14. Michael Haynes, Chicago Bears (2003)
Haynes started only four games over three seasons with the Bears. A back injury forced him to retire from the NFL at age 27.
15. Jerome McDougle, Philadelphia Eagles (2003)
McDougle suffered from injuries early in his career and then was unfortunately shot during a robbery of his home, which forced him to miss the 2005 season. He never played up to his promise after his return and was out of football by 2008.
16. EJ Manuel, Buffalo Bills (2013)
Manuel started 10 games his rookie year but was benched for Kyle Orton during his sophomore season. He never regained full control of the job, was signed by the Raiders in 2017, and was out of football by 2018.
17. Jarvis Moss, Denver Broncos (2007)
Moss started a whopping total of one game for the Broncos from 2007-2010. He started one game for the 2011 Raiders and was out of football by age 27.
18. Erasmus James, Minnesota Vikings (2005)
James won Big Ten defensive player of the year while at the University of Wisconsin, but he struggled with injuries in the NFL. He played in just 23 games for the Vikings over three years and was done with football after a five-game stint with the 2008 Redskins.
19. Jeff Otah, Carolina Panthers (2008)
Otah started a total of 25 games for the Panthers over 2008 and 2009. But a knee injury sustained at the start of the 2010 season derailed his career. Otah missed the entire campaign and played only four games before being traded to the New York Jets the following offseason. Otah failed the physical, nullifying the trade, and the Panthers released him.
20. Nelson Agholor, Philadelphia Eagles (2015)
The No. 20 spot since 2002 doesn’t feature any outright busts that GMs would like to forget. So Agholor gets the “honor” of this spot. He hasn’t been terrible, no, but he’s yet to break 800 receiving yards in any season — a number that shouldn’t be a hard ask of any receiver drafted in the first.
21. Matt Jones, Jacksonville Jaguars (2005)
The Arkansas quarterback acquitted himself decently after being turned into a NFL wide receiver. But he was released from the Jaguars in 2009 after several substance abuse issues. Making the pick even worse was the fact that the Falcons drafted Roddy White six picks later. (Aaron Rodgers was three picks behind Jones … no telling what type of wide receiver he would’ve made.)
22. Johnny Manziel, Cleveland Browns (2014)
Oh, where do you even start?
23. Marcus Tubbs, Seattle Seahawks (2004)
Tubbs started a total of only 15 games over parts of three injury-filled seasons for the Seahawks.
24. Bjoern Werner, Indianapolis Colts (2013)
Werner was born in Germany and played college football at Florida State. But his impact in the NFL was minimal. After starting 15 games for the Colts in 2014, he played sparingly the following season and was out of the game by 2016.
25. Tim Tebow, Denver Broncos (2010)
He’s definitely sold the most jerseys of any 25th pick on this list. And he does have a playoff win. Still, Tebow proved as good of a NFL quarterback as he’s been a minor-league outfielder. Tebow never played another down in the NFL after 12 games with the 2012 Jets.
26. Paxton Lynch, Denver Broncos (2016)
Drafting quarterbacks at the bottom of the half of the first round is clearly not John Elway’s forte. The Memphis star started a total of four games for the Broncos his first two seasons but was unceremoniously soon thereafter as Elway moved to cut his losses as quickly as possible.
27. Mike Rumph, San Francisco 49ers (2002)
The U. of Miami corner was hit with injuries during the 2004 and 2005 seasons and only started a total of 19 games for the Niners over four seasons. Rumph played seven games for the 2006 Redskins before his career was over at age 27.
28. Joshua Garnett, San Francisco 49ers (2016)
The Stanford guard missed the entire 2017 season after having knee surgery and was unable to win back his starting job upon his return in 2018. The Niners declined his fifth-year option in May 2019 and cut him outright that August. He signed a one-year contract with the Lions in February 2020 in a hope to jump start his career.
29. Kentwan Balmer, San Francisco 49ers (2008)
The North Carolina DL played only two years in San Francisco and never started a game, recording a total of only 11 tackles. Balmer was traded to the Seahawks for a sixth-round pick in 2010.
30. A.J. Jenkins, San Francisco 49ers (2012)
Jenkins never made any impact in the NFL. After playing in three games and being targeted once for the 2012 Super Bowl-bound Niners, he was traded to Kansas City, where he played for two seasons and never caught a touchdown pass.
31. Reuben Foster, San Francisco 49ers (2017)
What is it with the Niners and bad picks later in the first round? Character concerns and a failed drug test before the combine allowed the talented Alabama linebacker to fall all the way to the Niners and the 31st pick. But the risk wasn’t worth taking. Foster was suspended in 2018 for a weapons offense and then released in November following an arrest for domestic violence. He missed the entire 2019 season for the Redskins after tearing his ACL during his first practice with the team.
32. David Wilson, New York Giants (2012)
Fantasy players with long memories will remember Wilson being a fashionable sleeper pick before the 2013 draft. Unfortunately, Wilson suffered a serious neck injury in the fifth game of that campaign and eventually had to retire from football because of it.
Is it fair to label that a bad pick because of bad luck? There’s certainly an argument to be made from it. But fair or not, injuries certainly play a big role in whether picks pan out.
