Who are the quarterbacks who’ll matter in the 2021 NFL Draft, and what’s the college perspective on all of the top prospects?
2021 NFL Draft Quarterback Rankings
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Last year was fun for quarterbacks – Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert look like 15-year superstars, and Tua Tagovailoa and Jalen Hurts should blow up now that they have the keys to their respective kingdoms – but this is different.
There’s the no-brainer, and then it’s GM-wrecking time.
If you thought taking Mitch-turned-Mitchell Trubisky over Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson was bad – actually, at the moment, maybe it’s not so bad on the latter – that might be nothing compared to what’s coming with the massive calls coming on top QB prospects 2-through-5.
Keeping in mind that Mahomes – and he went 10th – is the only quarterback not named Manning since Troy Aikman went to Dallas in 1989 who was drafted in the top ten and won a Super Bowl for the team that took him …
15. Peyton Ramsey, Northwestern
Size: 6-2, 220
The Good: To go totally cliché considering he’s a Northwestern quarterback, he’s a heady player who has a decent enough arm and the skills to be an emergency game manager at the next level, and that’s not a knock. He doesn’t take a whole lot of chances, he can move just enough to not be a statue.
The Not-So-Good: The accuracy isn’t good enough. He’s too inconsistent, the deep ball ability is fine, but not special, and there were times when he just wasn’t quite right for a Northwestern offense that needed him to be perfect. There were two games last season when he threw no touchdown passes and two picks, and they were the two losses to Michigan State and Ohio State.
NFL Draft College Perspective Thought: He’s fine. He’ll be a backup who hangs around the league for a while because he has just enough good tools to like, but there’s a problem if he’s your regular starter.
Projected Round: Free Agent
14. Ian Book, Notre Dame
Size: 6-0, 210
The Good: He was a great college quarterback. At times he was a third down conversion machine, he was terrific in the Irish system, and he came through in the clutch more often than he got credit for. He’s a baller who isn’t going to be phased by the moment, and he’s got the chip-on-the-shoulder attitude of a 6-0 quarterback.
The Not-So-Good: He was a great college quarterback. It certainly wasn’t his fault that Notre Dame got bounced out of the College Football Playoff in its two appearances, but the other quarterbacks in those CFPs were … Trevor Lawrence, Tua Tagovailoa, Kyler Murray, Mac Jones, Justin Fields. Book doesn’t have those skills.
NFL Draft College Perspective Thought: In case you didn’t hear it over and over and over again throughout last year, Book was a great college quarterback. He’s missing the size, passing consistency and tools to be more than a backup, but he’ll be a tough cut in a camp.
Projected Round: Free Agent
13. Shane Buechele, SMU
Size: 6-1, 207
The Good: The guy spent 14 years in college football – there’s nothing he hasn’t seen. There might not be a whole lot of next-level skills to get excited about, but he was good for Texas, great for SMU, and he can step and be an instant leader if needed.
The Not-So-Good: He can move, but he’s not going to be a runner. He’s an underpowered pitcher who can’t really bring the deep ball, and the lack of size is a problem considering his style.
NFL Draft College Perspective Thought: Think Case Keenum. The tools aren’t there to expect anything amazing, but he can be a solid pro for a long time who can step in and keep things moving if needed.
Projected Round: Fifth
12. Sam Ehlinger, Texas
Size: 6-1, 220
The Good: The guy did a whole lot of things right and managed to win some big games for the Longhorns – at least when it came to the bowls. He’s not all that big, but he’s a bulldozer of a runner with an accurate enough deep arm to press the ball down the field. A tough guy’s tough guy, he’ll do whatever is needed.
The Not-So-Good: The pro passing tools are just okay. He dipped a bit last year when it seemed like the pressure was on to do everything game in and game out, and his running ability isn’t always a plus. The guy took a ton of punishment as it became too easy at times to rely on him running the ball.
NFL Draft College Perspective Thought: He might be a more interesting call than you’d think. There’s a lot to knock – being a smaller Tim Tebow isn’t a plus – but he could blossom on a team he doesn’t have to carry. If he’s just asked to be a QB in a system, he could be a decent late value get.
Projected Round: Fifth
11. KJ Costello, Mississippi State
Size: 6-5, 225
The Good: In terms or pro passing skills, arm, and style, he’s it. He’s got the 6-5 size, the power arm that can push it deep, and he looked the part of a potential franchise NFL quarterback as a sophomore at Stanford. When the guy was on – like he was in the 623-yard day against LSU last year and in the Pac-12 season of 2018 – he was occasionally as good as any quarterback in college football.
The Not-So-Good: Too many interceptions, too many misfires, too much indecision, and too much work might need to be done to break down his game to build it back up. He got hurt right away as a junior at Stanford and wasn’t right the whole year, and the Mississippi State thing last year was a hot mess after the opener.
NFL Draft College Perspective Thought: Please forgive this ranking as I try to make a pick work after three years of pumping him up as the next big thing. There are so many issues with his game now, but there’s also too much talent there to not think there’s a special upside if someone wants to take the time to give it a shot.
Projected Round: Free Agent
NEXT: 2021 NFL Draft Quarterback Rankings Top Ten
2021 NFL Draft Quarterback Rankings Top Ten
10. Kellen Mond, Texas A&M
Size: 6-3, 217
The Good: Experience isn’t a problem. Size, leadership, mobility, decision-making – they’re all good enough to be a possible value starter at the next level. He learned to play within the Jimbo Fisher/Texas A&M offensive system and style, he limited his mistakes, and he got better and better as his career went on.
The Not-So-Good: It’s not a knock because it wasn’t really his fault, but he almost never turned it loose. A&M played a slow-and-go, tempo-controlled style which worked, but it also meant that Mond almost never took unnecessary chances. That was fine right up until those moments when he needed to start firing.
NFL Draft College Perspective Thought: It’s possible he’s the hidden gem in this class. There’s enough skill there, and there’s more than enough when it comes to the intangibles to become a pro’s pro who gets into an NFL camp and takes over. The problem is that he was too often a midrange system passer, and now his game has to change.
Projected Round: Fourth
9. Feleipe Franks, Arkansas
Size: 6-7, 234
The Good: It’s ALL there. Size, mobility, arm, fire, attitude, starting QB intangibles – he’s how you make an NFL-looking quarterback. If he doesn’t have the best fastball in the draft – no, really, he has an MLB arm – he’s not far off. He was in a few tough situations with a restructuring period at Florida and then a rebuild at Arkansas, and he pushed through with a terrific 17-TD, 4-interception season with the Hogs.
The Not-So-Good: It’s going to take a little work. Even with all of his experience, it’s almost like he needs more reps to grow into a more confident rhythm passer. As crazy as it might seem considering his tools, he has to trust his arm more – it’s like he’s too afraid of making a mistake.
NFL Draft College Perspective Thought: He’ll probably have more talent and better skills than the starter for whatever team that drafts him. The upside is enormous, he’ll do the work needed to make himself better, and he could be the shot for the stars for a team willing to live through a whole lot of inconsistencies to get there.
Projected Round: Fourth
8. Jamie Newman, Georgia/Wake Forest
Size: 6-4, 230
The Good: Welcome to your best potential value pick among the quarterback prospects. If you’re looking for the right look and the right skills to develop, here you go with the size, mobility, and the arm strength to home there’s something special once he fights through the growing pains.
The Not-So-Good: He really could’ve used that graduate transfer year at Georgia. He was good at Wake Forest and almost certainly would’ve started right away after transferring to Georgia, but he opted out. He only had one year as a full-time starter, and he’s going to need a whole lot of time breaking down and building up his mechanics.
NFL Draft College Perspective Thought: Give him some time, and fight through the growing pains, and there might be something amazing on the other side. As we speak, some quarterback coach and offensive coordinator worth their respective salt are hoping to get this guy to work with.
Projected Round: Fourth
7. Kyle Trask, Florida
Size: 6-5, 240
The Good: Blow off that bowl loss to Oklahoma when most of the star Gators were off getting ready for the NFL. Trask almost pulled off the win over Alabama in the SEC Championship, and even by modern college football standards the stats were off the charts. He was on a better pace than 2019 Joe Burrow was after 11 games, and he did it all against SEC teams. The arm is there, the moxie is there, the …
The Not-So-Good: The pick sixes are there. It’s too big of a problem to ignore. He only threw eight interceptions last season, but there’s a little Matt Schaub in him when it comes to occasionally hitting the guy in the other uniform in stride. Tools-wise, he has the arm, but he doesn’t have the upside developmental skills of some of the other prospects around his range.
NFL Draft College Perspective Thought: You don’t throw for over 4,000 yards in a season with 43 touchdowns in 11 SEC games without having next-level passing ability, but you’re not getting a runner and you’re going to have to live through a slew of big mistakes.
Projected Round: Third
6. Davis Mills, Stanford
Size: 6-4, 217
The Good: Stanford doesn’t mess around when it comes to quarterbacks who have the NFL pocket passer look. Mills has the size, stature, and arm strength to be right out of central casting with the ability to hang in the pocket and put the ball anywhere he wants. It’s going to require patience, but if he had one more year in college his stock would’ve gone through the roof.
The Not-So-Good: Yeah, he’s right out of central casting … for 1998. There’s not enough mobility to matter in the modern game – there’s only one Tom Brady. Either he fits into your scheme as a pure pocket passer or it’s not going to work. He’s not a total statue – he’s okay throwing on the move – but considering staying healthy has been a a problem, there will be a whole lot of breath-holding when defenders tee off.
NFL Draft College Perspective Thought: The NFL scouting types are going to so desperately want to make this work. That arm, the way his passes look, the zip, the size, it all fits the mold. Again, there’s a chance here that he belongs among the top five of the star passers in this draft. It might not happen right away, some coaching staff is going to love him in camp.
Projected Round: Third
NEXT: 2020 NFL Draft Quarterback Rankings No. 5
2021 NFL Draft Quarterback Rankings Top Five
5. Mac Jones, Alabama
Size: 6-3, 217
The Good: All he did was put up the most efficient passing season in the history of college football. There wasn’t any fluff – it was all SEC teams, Notre Dame, and Ohio State he went against throwing 41 touchdown passes with just four picks.
Of course he had superstar playmakers around him, but he also was cool, calm, played within the offense, and he didn’t have any drama in his game. He didn’t force things that weren’t there, he showed off a good enough arm to make all the throws, and he rarely took major chances – a must as the Bama QB.
It’ll be seen as a negative that he got ten days to work behind the Bama line, but for the next level, that was on-the-job training at going through his progressions and making the reads. But …
The Not-So-Good: He’s not going to wow anyone or do much of anything with his legs. He can move a wee bit, but he’s not going to buy himself a ton of time at the next level and he’s going to need to speed up his delivery.
The arm is fine. You don’t bomb away like he and the Tide offense did without being able to push the ball deep, but he’s not going to wow with his arm like some of the other top prospects, and he doesn’t have any of the special NFL traits that the other four guys in the top five do.
Todd McShay just released his latest mock draft where he has Mac Jones going No. 3 overall to the 49ers.@Foxworth24 needs to chill 😭 pic.twitter.com/i46ii3isPN
— Get Up (@GetUpESPN) April 1, 2021
NFL Draft College Perspective Thought: Yeah, yeah, yeah, you could’ve quarterbacked that 2020 Alabama team to the national title, but he was more than just a caretaker for an O full of all-timers.
He’ll be a very good pro, and he’ll likely catch a break by not being one of the top two picks – or maybe even the third to San Francisco. However, he’s not the shot for the stars that Trey Lance, Justin Fields and Zach Wilson are. Those three have special pro-level tools that Jones doesn’t have, but that’s reading too much into it.
Lower ceiling, higher floor isn’t a bad thing in a top ten overall quarterback pick.
Projected Round: Top Ten Overall
NEXT: 2021 NFL Draft Quarterback Rankings No. 4
4. Zach Wilson, BYU
Size: 6-2, 214
The Good: The arm might be the best in the draft. He’s got the gun to put the ball anywhere he wants to, he can do it on the move, and he’s not afraid to trust his pass when he’s got a shot to make something big happen.
The mobility is good enough to be a positive – even though he’s not going to be devastating on the ground – and he’s not going to be afraid to get tough when he has to for the hard yard. However, his skills will kick in when he’s able to move around a bit, buy himself some time, and then fire away.
When he’s on, forget it. He went 18-for-18 with four touchdown passes in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl win over Western Michigan, he hit Louisiana Tech for a 92% passing day last year, threw 33 touchdown passes and three interceptions all season, and …
The Not-So-Good: It’s not fair to knock him with the bum-slayer tag, and the BYU losses to the better teams weren’t because he was awful, but he lit up a whole slew of Group of Five programs and was just okay against the Power Fivers.
He was able to pull off the win over USC two years ago with a terrific performance, and it’s not like he was bad against the other top teams, but his magnificent moments mostly came against the meh.
Even though he played the better part of the last three seasons, he’s still going to need time to develop. He’s going to have to be quicker at reading his progressions under pressure, and there’s going to be more of a learning curve than some might like.
Zach Wilson ‼️@BYUFootball | @zachkapono1 pic.twitter.com/yJBzgDdPQy
— NFL (@NFL) March 26, 2021
NFL Draft College Perspective Thought: He’s not the perfect prospect, but – to go totally cliché – he checks a whole lot of boxes. It would be nice if he was a little bit bigger, and again, it might take a little while before he becomes worthy of a top five pick – okay, No. 2 pick to the Jets – but his arm will bail him out of a whole lot of jams.
The problems – other than the size – are seemingly correctable. He’ll need to play within the system a bit, and he’ll have to take his lumps for a while when the passes that connected against Texas State and North Alabama don’t quite work right way against the Bills and Patriots.
Don’t worry. He’ll be terrific.
Projected Round: No. 2 Overall
NEXT: 2021 NFL Draft Quarterback Rankings No. 3
3. Justin Fields, Ohio State
Size: 6-3, 227
The Good: The NFL ability is all there.
The arm isn’t an issue, the running ability is going to be a problem for NFL defenses, and he’s got the size, 4.4 speed, and the unquestioned toughness everyone is looking for.
The guy probably shouldn’t have been playing in the second half of the College Football Playoff semifinal against Clemson, much less gut out an all-timer of a performance. He got banged around and kept on producing throughout his career, managing to get through various bumps and bruises to play like the franchise guy he needed to be for the Buckeyes.
Of course he had a whole lot of talent around him at Ohio State, but he was it. He was the difference between the Buckeyes being at a national championship level and being among the very, very good.
However …
The Not-So-Good: His toughness was actually a bit of a problem at times.
He was fine on his reads more than many are letting on, and any of those concerns are likely fixable – the word checkdown will be hammered into his head from the start.
However, he seemed to want to make the big thing happen a bit too often rather than take the easy throw – and with good reason.
With the phenomenal line in front of him and the NFL receivers to throw to, he could afford to buy a little bit of time and wait for something special. It also bought him a whole lot of massive shots after waiting for the play to open up.
Justin Fields showing off today 💪@JustnFields | @OhioStateFB pic.twitter.com/kJeNM9Mglj
— NFL (@NFL) March 30, 2021
NFL Draft College Perspective Thought: Don’t overthink this, America.
It’s impossible to argue with the numbers and the production – the guy averaged close to 11 yards per throw with the Buckeyes and tossed 63 touchdown passes with just nine picks – and he was more than accurate enough on a consistent basis.
The problem is pure NFL polish. He doesn’t have the arm or uncanny accuracy of Zach Wilson, the untapped potential might not be there like Trey Lance, and he’s not the safe call like Mac Jones. However, there’s way too much talent to not take the shot that he’ll learn to get the ball out of his hands faster and not take so many hits as he grows into a a decade-plus star.
Projected Round: Top Ten Overall
NEXT: 2021 NFL Draft Quarterback Rankings No. 2
2. Trey Lance, North Dakota State
Size: 6-4, 224
The Good: 28 touchdown passes, no interceptions, 14 rushing scores, 1,100 rushing yards, one national championship. That was the guy’s 2019 season.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, it was at the FCS level, but the game, tools, and upside are there to translate to the next level with a little bit of time.
He’s missing the experience and reps to be ready from Day One, but the guy works and works and works. The unquestioned leader of that national title team as a redshirt freshman, he’s got the toughness and maturity to handle himself just fine.
And then there are the tools.
Right height, right size, right mobility, right throwing motion, right upside. The ONLY thing missing is …
Trey Lance meant business. #NDSUProDay pic.twitter.com/qvzroYMW3w
— NDSU Football (@NDSUfootball) March 13, 2021
The Not-So-Good: Time. How much patience do you have?
Yes, just playing that one season matters, and it’s going to have to be hammered into him over and over and over again that he doesn’t have to be a franchise superstar right away.
He’s going to press, he’s going to want to show that he’s worthy among all the other great quarterback talents up top, and he’s going to make a whole lot of mistakes.
It’s going to take tweaking with those tools – the throwing motion has to be more consistent – and yeah, it’s going to take a whole lot of at-bats before he feels comfortable.
NFL Draft College Perspective Thought: Do you really want to be the GM that passes on what Lance could be?
This isn’t how the good GMs think, but if you miss on Zach Wilson, or if Trevor Lawrence doesn’t pan out, or if Justin Fields busts, you’re going to get roasted. If you miss on Lance and he becomes the next it quarterback, that’s going to be hung on you for the rest of your career.
The football world has been spoiled by Justin Herbert and Kyler Murray – it usually takes a little while for the top quarterbacks to rock at the next level.
Lance is the I Want To Win pick, at least right after …
Projected Round: Top Ten Overall
NEXT: 2021 NFL Draft Quarterback Rankings No. 1
1. Trevor Lawrence, Clemson
Size: 6-6, 213
The Good: The No. 1 recruit coming out of high school – or No. 1A if Justin Fields was your guy – Lawrence more than lived up to the hype with a national championship as a freshman, a run to the national title game after the 2019 season, and a third trip to the College Football Playoff last year.
With the size, arm, unreal maturity and poise, and an unwavering ability to handle the big moments, he’s it. He’s the one. He’s been ready for this for years as the type of quarterback prospect teams tank over – oh Jets, you’re so pretty.
He’s not cocky and doesn’t have any aspect of entitlement to his game – he’ll walk into the Jacksonville locker room and will belong right away.
A better runner than he gets credit for, he’ll get moving when he has to, but his job will be to make everyone around him better. That won’t be a problem.
The Not-So-Good: He’ll press a bit right away and will have to learn how to deal with adversity.
He’ll have to get used to having a bad game here and there – he never really had a true clunker at Clemson other than the 2019 National Championship against LSU, but everything against that team is forgiven – and he can’t play hero ball right right out of the box.
In 2019 as a sophomore, it was as if he was trying to win the national championship with every throw and the mistakes flowed early on. He adjusted, took more of the easy throws that were there, and all was fine. However, don’t be shocked if he gives away plenty of picks early on.
No one more prepared for the big stage than @Trevorlawrencee 🚀 pic.twitter.com/xYAoQ4EVUE
— Clemson Football (@ClemsonFB) February 13, 2021
NFL Draft College Perspective Thought: The guy would’ve been the No. 1 overall pick over Kyler Murray if he was able to come out in 2019, he would’ve been the No. 1 overall pick over Joe Burrow if he was able to come out last year, and he would’ve been the No. 1 overall pick in almost any other draft.
John Elway, Andrew Luck, Trevor Lawrence – oh, by the way, DJ Uiagalelei might soon be there, too. If you’re looking for the one of No. 1s, the prospect of prospects, and the guy who is about as strong as a pro talent can be, Lawrence gets into the most exclusive of VIP lounges.
This is going to be fun.
Projected Round: No. 1 Overall
