Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers
Saturday, 4.35pm ET/9.35pm GMT
What the Vikings need to do to win: Minnesota are touchdown underdogs on the road for a second straight week, this time against a San Francisco team who paced the NFC in points per game (29.9) and total defense (281.8) during the regular season. They won’t be cowed by the task at hand after taking down the in-form Saints at the Superdome, but the Vikings will need another disruptive afternoon from their pass rush to keep Niners quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo from picking apart a depleted secondary. They could also use another big day from wideout Adam Thielen, who was dogged by injury throughout the regular season but came up big against the Saints with seven catches for 129 yards, including the 43-yard coup de grace in overtime.
What the 49ers need to do to win: The Niners will need to keep Garoppolo clean against one of football’s most ravenous front sevens, allowing him the space to marshal an offense with an embarrassment of versatile playmakers, including All-Pro tight end George Kittle, wideout Deebo Samuel, fullback Kyle Juszczyk and the three-headed backfield monster of Matt Breida, Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman, who each went for more than 720 yards from scrimmage during the regular season.
Key players: DE Danielle Hunter and DE Everson Griffen, Vikings. Minnesota’s star defensive ends recorded 1½ sacks each opposite the Saints’ offensive tackle tandem of Terron Armstead and Ryan Ramczyk, who hadn’t allowed a sack all season. It was a credit to both their industry and the deft scheming of Mike Zimmer, the lone NFL head coach who calls his team’s defensive plays and who oftentimes lined up Hunter and Griffen inside as tackles.
Prediction: Vikings 17-27 49ers
Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens
Saturday, 8.15 pm ET/1.15am GMT (Sunday)
What the Titans need to do to win: The Ravens led the league with 3,296 yards on the ground, the highest single-season haul in NFL history. Quarterback and MVP frontrunner Lamar Jackson was responsible for more than a third of those, rushing for 1,240 yards while throwing a league-best 36 touchdown passes. The Titans’ defensive linemen will need to hold their own in the trenches to control the line of scrimmage while the linebackers must maintain gap and edge discipline to keep Jackson from springing outside, where he’s most dangerous.
What the Ravens need to do to win: Baltimore are the better, healthier team and they’re playing at home, having clinched the No 1 seed before Christmas and entered the playoffs on a 12-game win streak. Several of their star players, including Jackson, running back Mark Ingram, safety Earl Thomas and tight end Mark Andrews, will benefit from as many as three weeks of rest. The difference in class will show.
Key player: RB Derrick Henry, Titans. Tennessee’s workhorse back was the NFL’s rushing leader with 1,540 yards in the regular season and the difference-maker in last Saturday’s win over New England, gashing the defending champions for 182 yards on 34 carries and a touchdown. Aside from allowing Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill to essentially operate as a game manager, a big day from Henry could go a long way toward controlling time of possession and keeping Baltimore’s explosive offense off the field.
Prediction: Titans 16-33 Ravens
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, 3.05 pm ET/8.05 GMT
What the Texans need to do to win: Houston won the regular-season meeting between the clubs in Kansas City back in Week 6, so a second foray into the loudest stadium in sports won’t shake them. But the Chiefs were down five starters for that game, including Pro Bowl defensive lineman Chris Jones and left tackle Eric Fisher, while quarterback Patrick Mahomes was still working his way back from an ankle injury. The biggest key for Bill O’Brien’s unit will be to shore up their pass protection and blitz pickup when they have the ball. Houston’s offensive line has been a liability all season and never more than in Saturday’s wildcard win over the Bills, who sacked Deshaun Watson a total of seven times … even if the one he escaped is all anyone will remember.
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What the Chiefs need to do to win: Andy Reid’s record when coming off a bye week has become the stuff of NFL lore and you can bet he’s devoted no small portion of the fortnight on ways to turn the screw on Houston’s pass defense, which is the worst of the eight teams left in the playoffs by a wide margin. Look for Mahomes to take some big swings early through elite playmakers Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce with designs on a first-round KO.
Key player: QB Deshaun Watson, Texans. Houston ran riot over Kansas City back in October, rushing for 192 yards and three touchdowns on 31 carries. But the Chiefs defense has completely reinvented itself during their eight-game win streak and the ground game alone won’t make up the difference in class between these sides. The Texans will require an extraordinary effort from their gifted third-year quarterback to spring the upset.
Prediction: Texans 13-24 Chiefs
Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers
Sunday, 6.40pm ET/11.40pm GMT
What the Seahawks need to do to win: No team has won more games away from home this year than Seattle, who went 7-1 on the road during the regular season before Sunday’s wildcard triumph in Philadelphia. A divisional playoff in a building where they have lost eight straight dating back to the Clinton administration will be their most difficult task yet, even if Lambeau isn’t the postseason fortress it once was. Getting pressure on Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers will be critical. Seattle recorded only 28 sacks during the regular season, fewer than any team besides the lowly Dolphins – but they piled up seven on Sunday against the Eagles. They will also need production out of emergency signing Marshawn Lynch against a defense that’s been considerably better against the pass than the run.
What the Packers need to do to win: The injuries to Seattle’s top three running backs suggest the Seahawks will rely heavily on wideouts Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf, whose 160 receiving yards against the Eagles was a rookie playoff record. Green Bay will need lockdown efforts from their young cornerback tandem of Kevin King and Jaire Alexander to keep the visitors’ offense in check. On the other side of the ball, the Packers have been at their best when they have gotten running back Aaron Jones involved both as a runner and a pass-catcher early and often.
Key player: QB Russell Wilson, Seahawks. Seattle’s star quarterback is winless in three career starts at Lambeau with a passer rating of 60.4 and twice as many interceptions (six) as touchdowns (three), but his mobility and uncanny ability to extend plays could be just what the Seahawks need to keep their improbable run alive.
Prediction: Seahawks 17-16 Packers
