After researching the NFL player pool at quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end each week over the past few seasons, I will go on a new path for the daily games in 2021. I continue to make the stat projections for Sports Illustrated, and this baseline will be used to identify possible values at each position during the season.
In the daily games, we see each week players with low salaries post difference-maker scores. The key to winning is mixing a core of studs with some undervalued options that post impact scores for their price point.
Depending on the format, the goal is to find players that will score three or four times their salary to have a shor at GPP (grand prize pool).
Quarterback
Top Tier: Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills ($8,200/$9,000)
Last week, Allen matched Tom Brady in fantasy points (31.95) in four-point passing touchdown leagues, leading to him remaining the top-scoring quarterback (29.93 FPPG) in the NFL. He’s scored over 30 fantasy points in four of his past five starts, highlighted by an impact game in Week 3 (367 combined yards with five touchdowns. The Bills rank 11th in passing attempts (272), but they sit third in rushing production (62/296/4) for their quarterbacks.
The Jaguars have allowed over 22.00 fantasy points to five of their six opponents, but no quarterback has a difference-maker game. Four teams (DEN – 328/2, ARI – 316/0, CIN – 348/2, MIA – 329/2) passed for over 300 yards. They allow 8.8 yards per attempt with no opponent passing for more than two touchdowns. Jacksonville has given up 29 points per game while losing the time of possession battle in each of their first six games.
More: Lamar Jackson – 28.04 fantasy points
Value: Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys ($6,900/$7,900)
With two weeks to rest his injured calf, Dallas expects Prescott to be in the starting lineup on Sunday. He has a minimum of three passing touchdowns in five of his six starts. In his best two showings (403/3 and 445/3), Prescott had 109 combined passes (58 and 51). The Cowboys ran the ball well from Weeks 2-4, leading to him only attempting 25 passes per game in that stretch. Over his last 11 starts over the past two seasons, he has gained 3,832 combined yards with 28 touchdowns while gaining 8.4 yards per pass attempt.
Denver traded its best pass rusher (LB Von Miller – 4.5 sacks in seven games) to the Rams this week. Over the first eight weeks, the Broncos had the second-best defense vs. quarterbacks (17.46 FPPG) while facing Daniel Jones, Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Lamar Jackson, Ben Roethlisberger, Derek Carr, Case Keenum and Taylor Heinicke. The Cowboys’ offense will challenge Denver in both the run and pass game. The Ravens (316/3) and Raiders (341/2) had the most success against the Broncos.
SI Sportsbook posted an over/under of 49.5, ranking this matchup in the top three in possible scoring for the main slate on Sunday. Prescott needs Denver to score over 20 points and slow down the Cowboys’ run game to pay off.
More: Taysom Hill – 22.33 fantasy points
Robert Scheer/IndyStar
Running Back
Top Tier: Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts ($7,900/$9,200)
Taylor extended his scoring streak last week to five games (seven scores). In each one of these matchups, he gained a minimum of 110 combined yards. Over his hot run, Taylor gained 630 yards with 13 catches on 18.4 touches per game. Indy had him on the field for a season-high 74 percent of their plays against the Titans.
The Jets have the worst defense in the league against running backs (37.17 FPPG), with every opponent scoring over 28.50 fantasy points. New York plays well vs. the run (4.0 yards per rush), but offenses have 12 rushing touchdowns and plenty of success in the passing game with their backs (58/553/2).
The Colts should control the clock with the run game, leading to another great game by Taylor. I expect over 100 yards rushing with a pair of touchdowns. He plays Thursday night, so get your daily lineup in early to take advantage of his favorable matchup.
More: Alvin Kamara – 26.51 fantasy points
Value: Michael Carter, New York Jets ($5,300/$6,300)
The jump to eight catches for 67 yards in Week 7 vs. the Patriots showed that Carter has a rising opportunity. He followed up that success with an impressive game (172 combined yards with a touchdown and nine catches) against the Bengals. Over this two-game stretch, he scored 50.6 fantasy points in PPR leagues. New York had him on the field for 72 and 70 percent of their players over the last two weeks.
The Colts come into Week 9 with the third-best fantasy defense (17.93 FPPG) against running backs. Backs have gained a combined 968 yards with three touchdowns and 32 catches.
The Jets will rotate in a second back, which limits the ceiling for Carter, plus potentially steals some of his scoring ability. However, his improved role in the passing game set a high floor, giving his pay-off value if he hits pay dirt.
More: Myles Gaskin – 19.80 fantasy points
Wide Receiver
Top Tier: Tyreek Hill, Kansas City Chiefs ($7,900/$8,500)
Despite gaining over 100 yards in only two matchups (11/201/1 and 11/186/3), Hill has 12 targets or more in five of his eight games, with four of those outcomes coming over the last five weeks. He is on pace for a career-high in catches (136), receiving yards (1,562) and targets (191) over a 17-game schedule.
The Packers lost their best cornerback (Jaire Alexander) earlier in the season, which should be a win for Hill. However, Green Bay still has a top 10 defense against wide receivers (96/1,219/9). They haven’t allowed more than one touchdown to a wide receiver since Week 1 (NO – 5/101/3).
The investment in Hill comes on his rising opportunity. With no Aaron Rodgers on Sunday, the Packers should have a downgrade in offensive play. Kansas City has played better defensively over the past three contests (19 points allowed per game) after giving up 164 points over the first five weeks.
More: Cooper Kupp – 23.07 fantasy points
Value: Amari Cooper, Dallas Cowboys ($5,700/$6,900)
After dominating in Week 1 (13/139/2 on 17 targets), Cooper was a challenging start in all formats over the next five weeks (3/24, 3/26, 3/69/1, 3/60/1, 5/55). However, with a backup quarterback behind center, he beat the Vikings’ secondary for eight catches for 122 yards and one touchdown on 13 chances in Week 8. Cooper has a history of playing better in Dallas, highlighted by five games in 2019 and 2020 (6/106/1, 11/226/1, 11/147/1, 12/134/1, and 6/112/1).
Denver sits 11th defending wide receivers (91/1,328/7 on 160 targets), but they allowed over 200 yards to wideouts in four matchups (NYG – 17/246/1, BAL – 16/245/1, PIT – 8/203/2, and LV – 8/200/1).
Cooper comes into this week’s matchup with a lingering hamstring issue. However, Dallas had him on the field for 86 percent of their plays in Week 8. His drawing card against the Broncos is his sliding salary, matched with his explosive talent at home.
More: Jaylen Waddle – 18.64 fantasy points
Tight End
Top Tier: Travis Kelce, Kansas Chiefs ($7,000/$7,800)
The top 10 tight end pool continues to have some gaps and questions, with players battling injuries. There is a chance that George Kittle plays, while needing some clarity on the health of Darren Waller. Kelce continues to be the edge at tight end despite three dull efforts (4/23, 7/65, and 4/27) over the previous five weeks. Kelce scored only once since Week 2. After eight games, he is averaging 16.00 fantasy points, compared to 19.16 in 2020.
Green Bay is league average against tight ends (43/393/3), with their worst two showings (6/39/2 and 8/66/1) coming over the first two weeks. The Packers haven’t allowed a touchdown to a tight end in six games.
Kelce remains highly priced, and his ticket hasn’t come in weeks. He looks due for a big game while Kansas City and Patrick Mahomes need to find the bounce in their passing step if they want to make a deep run in the playoffs.
More: Kyle Pitts – 16.76 fantasy points
Value: Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers ($3,800/$5,000)
Freiermuth received seven targets each of the last two weeks, leading to two productive games (7/58 and 4/44/1). Pittsburgh had him on the field for a season-high 78 percent of their plays last week, helped by Eric Ebron being injured. Over seven games, he is the 17th highest scoring tight end (7.74 FPPG), with much more production expected over the second half of the year.
The Bears haven’t allowed over 10.00 fantasy points to a tight end since Week 1 (5/68). They’ve faced Tyler Higbee (5/68), Austin Hooper (2/19/1), T.J. Hockenson (4/42), Darren Waller (4/45), Robert Tonyan (2/10), O.J. Howard (1/9) and Charlie Woerner (1/7).
For Freiermuth to pay off, he needs to score over 14.50 fantasy points. The loss of JuJu Smith-Schuster should be a win for his chances, and Ben Roethlisberger looks more willing to throw him the ball in tight coverage on critical downs.
More: Hunter Henry – 12.43 fantasy points
The Week 9 projections are up at Sports Illustrated, with a second update coming Saturday after all practices close Friday night.
More fantasy coverage:
• Week 9 Touches, Target and Volume Report
• Derrick Henry Injury Fantasy Impact
Senior analyst Shawn Childs is a multi-sport, high-stakes fantasy legend with lifetime earnings in the high six-figures. He has been providing in-depth, analytical breakdowns for years all while helping his subscribers to countless titles and winnings across season-long & DFS. An inaugural inductee of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn can teach you how to prep like a champ!
