After researching the NFL player pool at quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end each week over the past few seasons, I will go on a new path for the daily games in 2021. I continue to make the stat projections for Sports Illustrated, and this baseline will be used to identify possible values at each position during the season.
In the daily games, we see each week players with low salaries post difference-maker scores. The key to winning is mixing a core of studs with some undervalued options that post impact scores for their price point.
Depending on the format, the goal is to find players that will score three or four times their salary to have a shot at GPP (grand prize pool).
Quarterback
Top Tier: Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers ($7,100/$7,800)
After missing last week’s game with COVID-19, Rodgers should be cleared by Sunday to face the Seahawks. Jordan Love failed to make an impact vs. Kansas City (190/1) in a winnable game. Halfway through this season, Rodgers only has one game with over 300 yards passing (344/2) while having a two-touchdown floor over his last seven starts. Over his seven-game winning streak, he averaged 258 combined yards and 2.7 scores. Overall, he ranks seventh in quarterback scoring (25.34 FPPG) in four-point passing touchdown leagues.
Seattle climbed to 14th defending quarterbacks (21.66 FPPG) after allowing less than 20 fantasy points to quarterbacks over their last three matchups (PIT – 226/1, NO – 262/1, JAC – 249/1). However, their pass defense showed downside when facing the Titans (364/0), Vikings (325/3), 49ers (363/3) and Rams (364/1) over a four-game stretch earlier in the season.
With Russell Wilson also expected back, this matchup should have more scoring juice. I expect a big day from Davante Adams, leading to Rodgers passing for over 300 yards with a minimum of three passing touchdowns. Seattle’s defense faces a top quarterback for the first time since Week 5.
More: Josh Allen – 33.26 fantasy points
Value: Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers ($5,600/$7,100)
Despite an underachieving defense (8th in points allowed and 14th in yards allowed) and an aging quarterback with fading big-play ability, the Steelers are second in the AFC North with a 5-3 record. Pittsburgh wants to run the ball, and Roethlisberger gains only 6.6 yards per pass attempt (6.3 over his last 25 starts). He has no games with more than two passing touchdowns and only one with over 300 yards passing (318/1, thanks to 58 attempts). Over the last five contests, Roethlisberger does have five completions over 40 yards.
The Lions faded vs. quarterbacks in Week 6 (CIN – 295/3) and Week 7 (LAR – 332/3). Detroit somehow held the Rams’ backs to 47 yards on 19 carries while offering no answer to the Eagles’ run game (46/236/4) the following week. Philadelphia’s success on the ground led to a minimal passing day (114/0 on 16 attempts) in Week 8. The Lions allow 15.3 yards per catch to wide receivers, with a low number of sacks (14).
Based on his salary, Roethlisberger needs to pass for over 300 yards with a pair of touchdowns to be worth his investment. Detroit struggles to score points, so Pittsburgh must earn their passing yards in the first half of the game.
More: Dak Prescott – 29.22 fantasy points
Running Back
Scott Galvin/USA TODAY Sports
Top Tier: Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers ($7,900/$9,400)
Based on usage (26.3 touches per game over his last six starts), Harris has one of the top running back opportunities in the game. However, he continues to struggle to find running room (3.7 yards per rush with two runs over 20 yards) due to a below-par offensive line. Harris offsets this shortfall by being active in the passing game (34/242/1). Before last week (16.80 fantasy points), he had scored over 20 fantasy points in each of his previous five matchups (28.20, 21.10, 22.20, 24.70, 21.00 fantasy points). Despite his success, Harris rushed for over 100 yards only once.
The Lions’ defense allows 30.5 points per game, with four opponents having a high level of success (SF – 41, GB – 35, CIN – 34, PHI – 44). Detroit struggled in three contests against the run (28/1311/2, 39/188/3, and 46/236/4), plus two offenses enjoyed success with their backs in the passing game (7/56/3 and 8/108/2).
Harris will be a chalk play this week. His ceiling depends on game flow and Detroit’s ability to score (only 14.7 per game over the past seven weeks).
More: Jonathan Taylor – 30.79 fantasy points
Value: Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders
Jacobs scored in each of his three home starts, with a combined four touchdowns. His role in the passing game has been higher over the past five weeks (5/17, 4/19, 1/29, 3/39, 4/19), helping his floor. He gained a season-high 95 combined yards in Week 9 with four catches and more success on early downs (13/76). Jacobs still hasn’t gained over 20 yards on any of his 73 carries this year. In 2020, he scored three times in two starts against the Chiefs with 149 combined yards and five catches.
Kansas City has played better against running backs over their last three matchups (22.25, 20.10, 18.30 fantasy points), inching them to 17th in running back defense (24.23 FPPG). They allow 4.7 yards per rush, with running backs scoring seven touchdowns and catching 54 passes for 495 yards and one touchdown.
Jacobs must secure close to 65 percent of the running back snaps (49% in Week 9) to reach a playable outcome in the daily games. In addition, Kenyan Drake can’t snipe his scoring opportunities in the red zone.
More: D’Ernest Johnson (if Nick Chubb doesn’t play) – 16.73 fantasy points
Wide Receiver
Top Tier: Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers ($7,900/$8,700)
For anyone drafting Adams in the season-long games, his momentum stalled over the past two weeks due to COVID-19 issues (he missed a game, and Aaron Rodgers had the same problem the following week). Both of Adams’ impact games (12/132/1 and 11/206/1) came on the road. In his three starts in Green Bay, he has 20 catches for 261 yards and one score on 27 targets.
Joseph Maiorana/USA TODAY Sports
Seattle is about league average defending wide receivers (107/1,320/7). They’ve allowed only one receiving touchdown to a wideout over their past four contests. From Weeks 4-6, wide receivers caught 52 passes for 740 yards and four touchdowns. Three players (Justin Jefferson – 9/118/1, Deebo Samuel – 8/156/2, Robert Wood – 12/150) had impact games.
SI Sportsbook placed an over/under of 49.5 for this matchup. I have Adams projected for nine catches for 112 yards and 1.5 touchdowns.
More: Diontae Johnson – 28.33 fantasy points
Value: Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos ($5,600/$6,600)
Sutton has been a feast or famine play in 2021. When at his best (9/159, 7/120/1, and 8/94/1), he has stud WR1 upside. Unfortunately, his down days (1/14, 5/37, 3/47, 2/40, 1/9) leave a daily player with a void in their starting lineup. Over the past three games, Denver only looked his way 11 times, leading to eight catches for 117 yards.
The Eagles climbed to fifth defending wide receivers (99/1,185/7), thanks to four offenses barely throwing to their wideouts (ATL – 5/51 on 10 targets, DAL – 9/118/1 on 12 targets, CAR – 9/86 on 17 targets, and DET – 3/46 on nine targets). Tyreek Hill dominated Philadelphia in Week 4 (11/186), and two other wide receivers (Antonio Brown – 9/93/1 and Keenan Allen – 12/104) had productive days.
Sutton may see weaker coverage if Darius Slay can’t start. He left last week’s game in the second half with a hamstring issue. Even with single coverage against Slay, Sutton owns a size advantage. I’m looking for a bounce back game after catching only one pass for nine yards against Dallas.
More: Hunter Renfrow – 15.07 fantasy points
Tight End
Top Tier: Darren Waller, Las Vegas Raiders ($6,300/$7,000)
Last week, Waller finished with seven catches for 92 yards on 11 targets. Unfortunately, two of his missed catches should have resulted in scores. He failed to secure a pass that hit him in the numbers at the goal line, and Derek Carr overthrew him in the back of the end zone on a wide-open play. Waller had his highest target game (11) since Week 1 (19 targets). In 2020, he had 12 catches for 136 yards and two touchdowns on 14 targets in two matchups against the Chiefs.
Kansas City ranks 27th against tight ends (48/617/6), with massive failure in three matchups (CLE – 7/120, PHI – 11/116/1, BUF – 4/118/1). They’ve allowed six touchdowns to tight ends over the past six weeks.
Waller went on a tremendous run over the second half of 2020 (43/654/4 over five games), and he looks poised to build a two-game winning streak against the Chiefs. I have him projected for six catches for 86 yards with a 75% chance of scoring.
More: Kyle Pitts – 18.40 fantasy points
Value: Dalton Schultz, Dallas Cowboys ($5,000/$6,000)
With Blake Jarwin on the injured list, Schultz gets a further bump in opportunity for the Cowboys. Their tight ends have 47 catches for 514 yards and five touchdowns on the year, which is the eighth-highest production in the NFL in PPR leagues. Schultz has been quiet over his past two starts (2/11 and 4/54), ending a string of four playable games (6/80/2, 6/58/1, 6/79, and 5/79) in the season-long games. He is on pace to set career highs in all areas.
Atlanta is league average defending tight ends (40/417/4), but they did show risk in three matchups (PHI – 6/76/1, TB – 6/68/2, and MIA – 14/145/1).
Dallas comes off their worst offensive showing of the season against the Broncos. They should have Michael Gallup back this week, forcing the Falcons to game plan to slow down the Cowboys’ wideouts. Schultz should be active in this game, but he’ll need to score to fill his salary bucket.
