The 2019 regular season hasn’t even started. But some coaches already are on the hot seat.
In most cases, that’s because they had disappointing seasons last year. In some cases, the patience of a team’s owner is wearing thin. In some cases, the coach simply doesn’t have a lot of talent to work with.
Then, there is the flip side. There are a few – and only a few – coaches who enter the season with a rock-solid hold on their jobs and are in no danger of being fired. Then, there are a bunch of coaches somewhere in between and what they do this season could determine if they keep their jobs.
With that in mind, let’s take a tiered-look at where all 32 coaches stand entering the season. We’ll use four tiers – red hot, heating up, cool and frozen in place. We’ll start with coaches who are completely safe and work our way to the guys who are hanging by a thread.
FROZEN IN PLACE
Bill Belichick, New England Patriots
Belichick might be the best coach in NFL history. He can coach in New England as long as he wants. But his future might be tied to quarterback Tom Brady. If Brady ever does retire (it has to eventually happen, right?), Belichick could decide to follow him.
Sean Payton, New Orleans Saints
Payton is a living legend in New Orleans. He took over a wobbly franchise in 2006 and has made the Saints into consistent contenders. The only worry is that those constant rumors about Jerry Jones in Dallas could, at some point, become reality.
Sean McVay, Los Angeles Rams
McVay has had two tremendous seasons with the Rams. They’re coming off a Super Bowl appearance and McVay is only 33. He’s going to be coaching this team for a long time.
Andy Reid, Kansas City Chiefs
With quarterback Patrick Mahomes entering only his third season, Reid should be safe for a long time. He has the best offense he’s ever had. However, Reid has a history of coming up short in big games. If he can win a Super Bowl, he can change his legacy.
Anthony Lynn, Los Angeles Chargers
Lynn has had winning seasons in each of his first two years with the Chargers and they don’t appear ready to take a step back anytime soon. Quarterback Philip Rivers looks like he still can play for a few more years.
Jon Gruden, Oakland Raiders
Can any coach be truly safe after a 4-12 season? The answer is yes and Gruden is the perfect example. It helps that he’s entering the second year of a 10-year, $100 million contract. But there’s more to it than that. Gruden still is in the honeymoon period of his return to Oakland. When the team moves to Las Vegas, Gruden will begin another honeymoon period.
COOL
Doug Pederson
Pederson won the Super Bowl in the 2017 season. He wasn’t quite able to match that last year, but the Eagles still had a playoff season and should be good for a long time.
Frank Reich, Indianapolis Colts
Reich got the Colts to the playoffs in his first season. As long as quarterback Andrew Luck stays healthy, the Colts should be good for many more years.
Pete Carroll Seattle Seahawks
The league’s oldest head coach, Carroll has led the Seahawks to seven consecutive winning seasons. He has earned the right to decide when he’s done coaching. As long as Carroll has Russell Wilson, he might stick around more than just another year or two.
John Harbaugh, Baltimore Ravens
Harbaugh is entering his 12th season and he had the Ravens to last season’s playoffs with rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson. It’s true Harbaugh has only one playoff victory since the Ravens won the Super Bowl in 2012, but this team appears to be on the upswing.
Matt Nagy, Chicago Bears
Nagy led the Bears to 12 wins last season and quarterback Mitchell Trubisky is progressing. Nagy should have some long-term security in Chicago because the Bears are going to be good for the foreseeable future.
Bruce Arians, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
There’s no question the Bucs will give the highly-respected Arians some time to build. But the question is, how much time will Arians give the Bucs? He says he wants to coach until he brings a Super Bowl championship. After all, Arians is 66 and has had health problems in the past.
Vic Fangio, Denver Broncos
Predecessor Vance Joseph got only two seasons. But Fangio should get more. After struggling with quarterback play the past few seasons, the Broncos solidified the position by bringing in veteran Joe Flacco and drafting Drew Lock. Flacco is good enough to make the Broncos respectable in the short term.
Mike Vrabel, Tennessee Titans
Without a great roster, Vrabel still managed to have a winning season in his first year. The Titans have plenty of upside and could become a consistent playoff contender.
Pat Shurmur, New York Giants
It’s no secret the Giants are in a rebuilding mode. The fact that rookie quarterback Daniel Jones and second-year running back Saquon Barkley are the centerpieces the Giants want to build around means Shurmur has some time.
Brian Flores, Miami Dolphins
There’s no doubt the Dolphins are in a rebuilding mode and they’ve got to give Flores a little time to turn things around. Veteran quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick is good enough to make Miami somewhat respectable in the short term. But it would really help Flores if second-year pro Josh Rosen can emerge as the quarterback for the long term.
Matt LaFleur, Green Bay Packers
Mike McCarthy’s tenure in Green Bay ended badly. LaFleur gets a fresh start with a franchise that has a history of being patient with coaches. But it’s crucial that LaFleur does a better job of getting along with quarterback Aaron Rodgers than McCarthy did.
Kliff Kingsbury, Arizona Cardinals
Although predecessor Steve Wilks got the boot after only one season, Kingsbury should be safe for at least a few years. He’ll be given some time to build the Cardinals around quarterback and top draft pick Kyler Murray.
Zac Taylor, Cincinnati Bengals
Owner Mike Brown stayed with Marvin Lewis way too long. Brown is likely to take a patient approach with Taylor. Maybe Taylor won’t last as long as Lewis, but he still will get plenty of time.
Adam Gase, New York Jets
Gase got fired by Miami only to end up with another AFC East team. The Jets went on a spending spree this offseason and they want to win now. But it’s not fair to expect Gase to make it all happen in one season.
Freddie Kitchens, Cleveland Browns
Expectations are high in Cleveland because the roster suddenly has plenty of talent. Kitchens will be expected to turn things around in a hurry. He should be safe for a few years. But, if things go horribly wrong, anything is possible. Remember, we’re talking about the Browns.
GETTING HOT
Sean McDermott, Buffalo Bills
McDermott has a strong defensive background, but his team has ranked in the bottom half of the league in points allowed each of the last two seasons. The fact Buffalo has a young quarterback in Josh Allen probably will buy McDermott some time, unless the Bills are truly disastrous this season.
Doug Marrone, Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars were a playoff team in 2017, but took a huge step back as they went 5-11 last year. Marrone needs to get this team back to the playoffs this season or else he could be looking for a new job.
Bill O’Brien, Houston Texans
The Texans had a disastrous loss at home to Indianapolis in last season’s playoffs. Houston has a great young quarterback in DeShaun Watson and a very talented defense. Anything less than a deep playoff run this year could put O’Brien’s job in jeopardy.
Mike Zimmer, Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are coming off a disappointing 8-7-1 season in which they missed the playoffs. The Vikings are loaded with individual talent. But highly-paid quarterback Kirk Cousins needs to start playing at a level that matches his contract or else Zimmer could be in big trouble.
Kyle Shanahan, San Francisco 49ers
Shanahan is 10-22 in his first two seasons in San Francisco. He got a pass last season when quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo tore up his knee in the third game of the season. Garoppolo is back this season and the 49ers need to show some strong progress to keep Shanahan safe.
RED HOT
Matt Patricia, Detroit Lions
Patricia’s first season was pretty much a disaster and his coaching style didn’t sit well with some of his players. The Lions went out and spent big money in free agency this offseason. Patricia needs a dramatic turnaround or else he won’t get a third season.
Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh Steelers
Yes, he got a contract extension in July. But don’t read too much into that. Tomlin is only under contract through 2021. The Steelers historically have been incredibly patient with their coaches. But as the Steelers missed the playoffs last year, there was a growing sense of dissatisfaction with Tomlin all around Pittsburgh. If he misses the playoffs again, Tomlin likely will be gone.
Dan Quinn, Atlanta Falcons
After getting his team to the Super Bowl in the 2016 season, the Falcons took a step back in 2017 and took several steps back last year as they finished 7-9. The window to win a Super Bowl is still there with Matt Ryan and Julio Jones in their prime. But if the Falcons have another subpar year, owner Arthur Blank may decide Quinn isn’t the right coach to get the Falcons through that window.
Jason Garrett, Dallas Cowboys
No coach is ever safe in Dallas. Even Jimmy Johnson left after winning a Super Bowl. Garrett has kept the Cowboys competitive, but they haven’t won big. Their roster is loaded. Owner Jerry Jones didn’t give Garrett a contract extension in the offseason. That means the Cowboys need a deep playoff run if Garrett is going to get another season.
Ron Rivera, Carolina Panthers
Since buying the team from Jerry Richardson, owner David Tepper has worked hard to slowly weed out people who had deep ties to the franchise’s original owner. Even people like the team’s original equipment manager and ticket director have quietly gone away. Could Rivera be next? It’s totally possible. In fact, it’s somewhat surprising Rivera survived after his team collapsed in the second half of last season. Anything less than a playoff berth won’t suffice.
Jay Gruden, Washington Redskins
Team owner Daniel Snyder is widely known for his impatience. But he has been surprisingly patient with Gruden, who is entering his sixth season despite never having double-digit wins and never winning a playoff game. Snyder’s patience has to be wearing very thin.
Pat Yasinskas has covered the NFL since 1993. He has worked for The Tampa Tribune, The Charlotte Observer and ESPN.com and writes for numerous national magazines and websites. He also has served as a voter for the Pro Football Hall of Fame.
