Just like that, the end game is upon us. A starting field of 32 NFL teams has been whittled down to four. And of our 226 Pick The Playoffs contestants, a mere 12 are still in with a shot of a perfect score. Congratulations to bouncebounceprod, francaise, Mark Lewis, MisterHorse, mmmbop86, nbcnfl, Nick Young, ShadowWarrior, smjdublin, themagicman, waterhoose and, yes, me on calling every postseason game correctly so far.
I’ll post the full standings in the comments section below shortly. But before that, here are my picks for the Conference Championship Games.
Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons (Sunday 3.05pm ET/8.05pm GMT)
Of the four starting quarterbacks in action this weekend, only one does not own a Super Bowl ring. It is the same one who performed most strongly through the regular season. Matt Ryan’s 117.1 passer rating ranks as the fifth-best such mark in NFL history. He averaged an enormous 9.3 yards per attempt – 1.4 higher than he had achieved in any previous season – and connected on 38 touchdowns, against just seven interceptions.
Ryan has extended such brilliance into the playoffs, throwing for 338 yards, three touchdowns and a 125.7 rating during Atlanta’s 36-20 defeat of Seattle last weekend. He has not been picked off in six games, and is supported by the league’s fifth-most productive running game. The Falcons’ pass protection is solid, too, in part because they have been the only team in the NFL to start the same five offensive linemen every week.
Add it all up, and it starts to look rather ominous for Green Bay. Only one team – New Orleans – gave up more yards through the air in the regular season, and the Packers’ prospects of slowing down Ryan and company have only been damaged further by a quad injury to safety Morgan Burnett, whose versatility has been such an asset. At time of writing, his availability for Sunday was unclear.
And yet, you could paint a similar picture on the other side. Aaron Rodgers threw his first interception in nine games against Dallas, breaking a run of 21 touchdowns without a pick, but he still helped his team to put 34 points on a defense that had given up an average of just 19.1 during the regular season. And the Falcons (who themselves only ranked 28th against the pass) will be missing their No2 pass rusher, Adrian Clayborn, who claimed a pair of sacks during their 33-32 regular season win over Green Bay.
Indeed, what makes this such a fascinating match-up is that the strengths and weaknesses look so similar on both sides. It is hard to imagine anything other than a shootout, and yet each team’s No1 receiver is carrying an injury. Jordy Nelson’s participation is once again in doubt for Green Bay as he continues his recovery from broken ribs, but Julio Jones also sat out Atlanta’s practice on Wednesday with a toe complaint although he says he is “ready to go”.
But the Packers’ health concerns run deeper. No3 wideout Davante Adams also injured his ankle late in the win over Dallas, and both starting offensive tackles were limited in practice early in the week. Offsetting those problems is Rodgers’s superior track record of winning games at this time of year. Ryan, lest we forget, has only won two playoff games in his whole career.
But narratives like that are made to be broken. And, as mentioned right at the start, he’s never played quite this well before. Falcons to win
Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots (Sunday 6.40pm ET/11.40pm GMT)
It feels like a bizarre quirk of NFL history that Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger have not met in a postseason game for 12 years. The Patriots sealed their fifth conference title by beating Pittsburgh back in January 2005, and all but one of the AFC Championship Games played since then have featured one of those two teams - but somehow never both at the same time.
In his career, Brady has tended to get the better of Roethlisberger: winning six out of eight head-to-head matchups. Those numbers do not include New England’s 27-16 victory at Heinz Field in October, of course, since the Steelers quarterback missed that game with a knee injury.
Roethlisberger’s availability this Sunday is not the only reason to believe his team can do better. Pittsburgh’s defense has improved dramatically since that first meeting - racking up 33 sacks and 19 turnovers over its past 10 games, compared with just 11 sacks and nine turnovers in the first eight. The reintroductions of James Harrison and Bud Dupree to the starting outside linebacker positions have helped to deliver significant improvements in the pass rush.
The Steelers have also shown greater commitment to the running game. After serving a three-week suspension, Le’Veon Bell only surpassed 100 yards rushing once in the first six games he played this season. He has done so in seven out of eight starts since. So far in the playoffs, he has shredded Miami and Kansas City for a combined 337 yards on the ground.
New England’s defense, which ranked third against the run during the regular season, ought to present a stiffer challenge. But if they focus their energies on slowing Bell down, might that leave opportunities for the Steelers elsewhere?
Roethlisberger has had a deeply uneven season, posting a 20:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio at home, but just a 9:8 ratio on the road. He failed to steer his team into the end zone even once during last weekend’s victory in Kansas City. And yet, he is the probably the best quarterback New England have faced since their home defeat to Seattle in week 10.
You can only beat the teams placed in front of you, but it remains true that the Patriots have not seen many good ones in the past two months. Of their seven consecutive wins to end the regular season, only one came against an opponent bound for the playoffs (Miami). And it was not until Brock Osweiler began his second-half meltdown that they really pulled away from Houston on Saturday.
The Steelers faced several bad teams during their own nine-game winning streak, and there are plenty of reasons to doubt their ability of winning in Foxboro. New England’s defense is not only better equipped than most to slow down Bell, but in Malcolm Butler can also boast one of the few cornerbacks capable of matching up one-on-one with Antonio Brown.
I’m well aware, then, that I’m making this pick on a gut feeling, rather than any unimpeachable logic. But I find myself leaning towards the upset. Steelers to win
