Was last year a mirage for Carolina or a sign of the future?
You have to feel very good about your team to let one of your best defensive players walk away in a contract dispute. Carolina Panthers general manager Dave Gettleman took an enormous risk gambling that Josh Norman’s success at cornerback in 2015 was a product of the team’s entire defense and not individual brilliance.
There are a lot of positions on a roster where you can make that assumption, but cornerback is the one place where the normal rules don’t apply. Great corners are hard to find: no matter how good your pass rush or run defense is, if you don’t have a defender who can run alone with the other team’s best receivers, you will have trouble winning. Next to quarterback, a shutdown corner may be the most indispensable position on the field. Carolina had a league-high 24 interceptions last year, can the Panthers rely on their tremendous pass rush to carry them again?
Carolina have every reason to believe they have the NFL’s best quarterback in Cam Newton. Last season he was tremendous both on the ground and in the air. The Panthers will again be very tough for defenses to stop. But does the loss of Norman set off a domino effect in the defense that will leave Carolina vulnerable? No matter how good Newton was last season, the Panthers could rely on the NFC’s best defense. Do they still have that? It’s probably not a question that will come up in a weak NFC South but could be a factor in the postseason.
Will Matt Ryan ever become a top quarterback?
Just when Matt Ryan looked to be ready to take the next step toward greatness he ran into offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan, who seemed to set him back. Last year, the reliable Ryan was intercepted 16 times and looked like a shell of his former self. Was this just a product of a first-year adjustment to a new system and blocking scheme? Will Ryan become at least the player he was before if not better this season? Or is it the start of a decline?
The way the Falcons fell apart last season they were lucky to finish 8-8. They might have had the NFL’s worst pass rush last season and brought in Dwight Freeney to improve that. They will have to create more turnovers. But the questions revolve around the team’s offense, which was supposed to be a strength. Ryan should be lobbing touchdowns to Julio Jones and winning division titles. But his decline last year was jarring.
Atlanta have bolstered the offensive line and that should help. And yet you get the sense that the Falcons fortunes rest on their quarterback. If he plays well they may have enough to challenge the Panthers. But if Ryan is anything like last season the Falcons could tumble to the bottom.
How good can Jameis Winston become?
Winston was great in his first NFL season. He threw for more than 4,000 yards and had 22 touchdowns, and the team was so encouraged by his growth the Buccaneers made the offensive coordinator, Dirk Koetter, their head coach. But Winston needs to show he is a leader and less like the troubled and immature player he was at Florida State. So far it seems he is trying.
He came to camp this year in far better shape than last season. He seems to be taking a stronger role in organizing players and improving the offense. The real test will come in games where he needs to be more careful with the ball and to make better decisions. He continues to have two excellent receivers in Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans and if he can get the ball to them with more regularity he can really take off. Doug Martin remains a bruising force who can barrel through lines and make Winston even more effective.
The Bucs also did a great deal to improve their defense last year, and have added former Falcons coach Mike Smith as their defensive coordinator. They seem to believe that top draft pick Vernon Hargreaves can be an excellent cornerback and Noah Spence can really help their pass rush. If Winston continues to develop the Bucs could be a .500 team for the first time since 2010, and possibly leap past Atlanta into second place.
Is there anything left of the once-great Saints?
Drew Brees is now 37. He can still fire passes across the middle as he did in the great Saints seasons a few years ago, but the team around him are not the same. And there is a fear that Brees is going to break down after taking so many hits over the years. But Sean Payton remains one of the game’s great offensive minds and he will undoubtedly find ways to milk points from an intriguing group of new players.
Payton is going to rely on Brandin Cooks and the team’s second-round pick Michael Thomas to be Brees’s top passing targets as well as finding opportunities for the newly-acquired Coby Fleener. Thomas has the moves that can allow him to grow fast in a Payton offense. The offensive line should be stable and at worst, New Orleans will be able to score points.
The biggest problem is not giving those points up. The Saints defense was terrible last season and there aren’t many signs it will get better. They drafted a defensive tackle, Sheldon Rankins, in the first round but he has a fractured fibula and will be out for six to eight weeks. Even with Kenny Vaccaro’s improvement over a dreadful 2014, New Orleans haven’t shown enough overall growth on defense to say they can stop many teams. With a flimsy defense again and not enough weapons on offense this might really be the end of a great decade-long run for the Saints.
