The NFC South has been dominated by one team for the last three years. While the Saints haven’t had much success in the playoffs, they have won the division title each season convincingly. Could this be the year that somebody knocks them off and ends their run?
Let’s review what each team has been up to this offseason and rank them according to our projections for the 2020 season.
1. New Orleans Saints
2019 record: 13-3 (first place, lost to Vikings in wild card round)
Additions: S Malcolm Jenkins, WR Emmanuel Sanders, QB Jameis Winston
Losses: QB Teddy Bridgewater, LB A.J. Klein, WR Keith Kirkwood, S Vonn Bell, G Larry Warford
Draft picks: No. 24: Michigan OL Cesar Ruiz, No. 74: Wisconsin EDGE Zach Baun, No. 105: Dayton TE Adam Trautman, No. 240: Mississippi State QB Tommy Stevens
2020 outlook: The Saints stayed on-brand this offseason by remaining in win-now mode, as they have been since Sean Payton’s arrival. As usual, they didn’t have many draft picks, but they got great value with Ruiz and Baun, who will reinforce both sides of the line of scrimmage. Bringing Jenkins back was a huge get, as was signing Sanders to finally give Michael Thomas a partner in crime. Adding Winston for QB depth at just $1.1 million might be the bargain of the year. Until somebody proves otherwise, this is still the team to beat. We’re predicting a 12-4 record and another division title for the Saints.
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2019 record: 7-9 (third place)
Additions: QB Tom Brady, OT Joe Haeg, TE Rob Gronkowski (trade)
Losses: QB Jameis Winston, DL Beau Allen, WR Breshad Perriman, OLB Carl Nassib, G Mike Liedtke, RB Peyton Barber
Draft picks: No. 13: Iowa OT Tristan Wirfs, No. 45: Minnesota S Antoine Winfield Jr., No. 76: Vanderbilt RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn, No. 161: Minnesota WR Tyler Johnson, No. 194: Nebraska DT Khalil Davis, No. 241: Temple LB Chapelle Russell, No. 245: Louisiana-Lafayette RB Raymond Calais
2020 outlook: While there’s still ground to gain on New Orleans, Tampa is by far the most improved team in the NFC South this year. Brady may not be what he was in 2007, but he’s a big upgrade over Winston and won’t cause nearly as many turnovers. Adding Gronk to the mix gives them the deepest group of tight ends in the league to go with a brutal one-two punch at wide receiver. The Bucs also kept their defensive line strong by retaining Shaq Barrett, Jason Pierre-Paul and Ndamukong Suh. Assuming Wirfs and Winfield both work out, this team will be much more competitive than in recent years. Our projection for Tampa in 2020 is a 10-6 regular season and a wild card spot.
3. Atlanta Falcons
2019 record: 7-9 (second place)
Additions: EDGE Dante Fowler, RB Todd Gurley, LB Edmond Robinson, TE Khari Lee, LB LaRoy Reynolds, OL Justin McCray, WR Laquon Treadwell, TE Hayden Hurst (trade)
Losses: TE Austin Hooper, DE Vic Beasley, CB Desmond Trufant, G Wes Schweitzer, LB De’Vondre Campbell, DE Adrian Clayborn, DT Jack Crawford, RB Devonta Freeman
Draft picks: No. 16: Clemson CB A.J. Terrell, No. 47: Auburn DT Marlon Davidson, No. 78: Temple C Matt Hennessey, No. 119: Fresno State LB Mykal Walker, No. 134: California S Jaylinn Hawkins, No. 228: Syracuse P Sterling Hofrichter
2020 outlook: The Falcons have serious salary cap issues, which cost them some critical personnel this offseason. They will especially miss Hooper, who should develop into an elite tight end. Adding Fowler will help boost what has been an awful pass rush, but overall this is still a mediocre defense at best and it’s trending in the wrong direction. Offensively, Julio Jones will have to be near super-human to keep this team even remotely competitive. They also reached for Terrell in the first round and in general their draft class was pretty underwhelming. It’s hard to see Atlanta doing any better than 6-10 this season.
4. Carolina Panthers
2019 record: 5-11 (fourth place)
Additions: QB Teddy Bridgewater, OT Russell Okung (trade), G Michael Schofield, G John Miller, TE Seth DeValve, WR Robby Anderson, WR Pharoh Cooper, WR Keith Kirkwood, WR Seth Roberts, DE Stephen Weatherly, S Juston Burris, LB Tahir Whitehead, QB P.J. Walker, DT Zach Kerr
Losses: QB Cam Newton, LB Luke Kuechly (retired) DE Mario Addison, DE Bruce Irvin, DT Gerald McCoy, DT Dontari Poe, DT Vernon Butler, CB James Bradberry, S Eric Reid, OL Daryl Williams, G Greg Van Roten, G Trai Turner (trade), QB Kyle Allen (trade)
Draft picks: No. 7: Auburn DT Derrick Brown, No. 38: Penn State DE Yetur Gross-Matos, No. 64: Southern Illinois DB Jeremy Chinn, No. 113: Notre Dame CB Troy Pride Jr., No. 152: West Virginia S Kenny Robinson, No. 184: Baylor DT Bravvion Roy, No. 221: FIU CB Stantley Thomas-Oliver III
2020 outlook: While the front office won’t admit it publicly, this is the beginning of a long-term rebuild for the Panthers. On paper, they might have the worst defense in the NFL even after using all seven of their draft picks on defensive prospects. Offensively, the additions of Bridgewater and Anderson should help keep things from getting too embarrassing. However, this is easily the weakest roster in the division and it’s possible they’ll go 0-6 against their NFC South rivals. We could see them losing as many as 12 games if injuries become a problem again, but we’re predicting a 6-10 finish.
