Can Carolina keep Cam Newton from getting Blind Sided?
Do you see what we did there? Blind Sided? Because the Panthers signed Michael Oher, whose compelling real-life story was told in 2006 Michael Lewis book The Blind Side, and subsequently adapted into a Hollywood movie starring Sandra Bullock, to play as their starting left tackle?
OK, good, let’s move on. Lame puns aside, the question of whether Carolina can do a better job of keeping Cam Newton upright this season is a crucial one. The Panthers handed their quarterback a new $103.8m contract extension this offseason, so it’s about time they started trying to protect him.
Newton was sacked 38 times last season and found himself under pressure on more than one-third of his dropbacks. He might hold onto the ball too long occasionally, but that is not the root cause of this problem. Carolina’s pass blocking was atrocious. Indeed, according to Pro Football Focus’s grades, it was third-worst of any team in the league.
Oher was signed to address this issue, but whether he will succeed is open to doubt. The lineman has broadly failed to deliver on the potential that made him a first-round pick in 2009 and seemed to regress further in Tennessee last year.
Meanwhile, center Ryan Kalil – the best of a bad bunch in 2014 – has sprained his knee, obliging coaches to consider moving right tackle Mike Remmers inside. His spot, in turn, may be occupied by rookie fourth-round pick Daryl Williams. Such uncertainty does not bode well so close to the season.
On top of which, Newton has now lost his No1 receiver. Kelvin Benjamin’s season-ending knee injury deprives the quarterback of a target that he felt good throwing the ball up for when shabby blocking did put him in a tight spot. Devin Funchess has the size to take on a similar role, but only time will tell if the rookie is ready to thrive at this level.
Whatever happens, the Panthers are unlikely to be pushovers. Running back Jonathan Stewart is a handful when healthy (admittedly, less often than the team would like) and the defense is stout, even if the secondary still looks patchy despite the Charles Tillman pick-up. Carolina’s pass rush did OK without Greg Hardy last year and first-round pick Shaq Thompson looks like a playmaker. Luke Kuechly remains a monster.
But there is a difference between being a solid team and a good one. The Panthers became the first team ever to win back-to-back NFC South titles when they finished top of this division last year, but they did so with a losing record. Have they got significantly stronger doing so? If so, it is hard to see where.
It would be possible for this team to make substantial gains simply by protecting Newton better. Signing Oher was supposed to be a step in the right direction, but it looks more like a shuffle to the (blind) side.
What will the Saints look like without Jimmy Graham?
Nobody could accuse the Saints of being content with mediocrity. They reacted to a 7-9 finish by thoroughly refreshing their coaching staff, bidding farewell to five assistants and welcoming in seven more. They followed that up by trading away one of the best tight ends ever to play the game, plus a fourth-round draft pick, in return for a center and a first-rounder.
New Orleans had not lost faith in Jimmy Graham. Last season was statistically his worst since his rookie year, but the tight end still hauled in 85 passes for 885 yards and 10 touchdowns despite a shoulder complaint. At 28 years old, the Saints knew he still had plenty to give, but – lacking the salary cap room to address weaknesses on the offensive line and on defense – accepted that something had to give.
If the trade appears to damage Drew Brees, coaches may argue that they made it with him in mind. The quarterback has lost his favourite target as well as a team-mate whom he described as “like a brother to me”, but he has gained superior protection. Max Unger missed a large chunk of last season due to injury but when healthy he is one of the best starting centers in the league.
Unger’s arrival was supplemented with the drafting of offensive tackle Andrus Peat in the first round, though his performances through preseason suggest he might not be ready to start for a while yet. Either way, coaches intend to relieve the pressure on Brees by increasing their focus on the running game.
Mark Ingram did a solid enough job as a feature back in 2014 and free agent signing CJ Spiller brings a change of pace. Khiry Robinson returns as the back-up bruiser on first and second downs. This is not a group to set fans’ pulses racing but it might be one that is capable of sustaining drives and keeping the Saints’ defense off the field.
That much is imperative because New Orleans still do not look good on that side of the ball. Junior Galette, responsible for 10 of the team’s 34 sacks last season, was cut over off-field incidents. It is not especially clear how the Saints intend to pick up the pass-rushing slack. Free agent pick-up Anthony Spencer was a Pro Bowler under Rob Ryan in Dallas, but that was three years ago. He has managed half a sack in the past two, injury-ravaged, seasons combined.
Ryan has simplified the defensive playbook, giving him more time to explain to Brandon Browner what pass interference means, and perhaps also accelerating the integration of rookies on that side of the ball. New Orleans spent six draft picks on defensive players, with linebackers Stephone Anthony (taken with Seattle’s first-rounder) and Hau’oli Kikaha, as well as defensive tackle Tyeler Davison, all expected to contribute right away.
This Saints team will look very different. With the likes of Pierre Thomas, Kenny Stills, Curtis Lofton and even kicker Shayne Graham all departing there will not be much familiarity here. The fear is that through all this change the results will get worse, or even just stay exactly the same.
Are the Falcons contenders under Ray Quinn?
There was a time when running back Leroy Hoard stood as the model of NFL consistency. The story goes that he once told Vikings coach Dennis Green: “if you ask me to get you one yard, I’m going to get you three. If you ask me to get you five, I’m going to get you three.”
Sixteen years on from Hoard’s retirement, perhaps it is time we anointed a successor – one more representative of the modern NFL’s status as a passing league. Step forward Matt Ryan. If you need a 65% completion rate, 4,500 yards and 25 touchdowns in a season he’s got you more than covered. But if you need a quarterback who can drag a subpar roster into the postseason single-handedly, well, you’d better look elsewhere.
For the Falcons to lose 22 games in two years despite such reliable play at the most important position makes clear what a mess things have been. A dismal offensive line has been backed up by a stable of ancient or anonymous running backs and complemented by a defense that made Jarius Wright look like Jerry Rice last September.
Head coach Mike Smith carried the can, losing his job at the end of the season and presumably watching with bemusement as the team failed to fire Thomas Dimitroff as well. The general manager who had helped put together this inadequate roster instead survived to oversee the construction of an improved one for Smith’s replacement, Dan Quinn.
Fixing the defense has, unsurprisingly, been the priority. As co-ordinator of the league’s best scoring defense in Seattle these past two years, Quinn brings good experience to the table and some useful talent as well – having persuaded linebacker O’Brien Schofield to follow him over from the Seahawks. Better yet, Quinn also got defensive end Adrian Clayborn to jump ship from division rivals Tampa Bay.
Both Schofield and Clayborn know how to rush the passer, and so does the team’s No1 draft pick, Vic Beasley. With Quinn at the helm, something would need to go very seriously wrong for the Falcons not to improve on the 22 sacks they managed last season.
Even a little bit of pressure on opposing quarterbacks could go a long way. The Falcons are not as bad as you might assume in the secondary, with Desmond Trufant a legitimately solid cover corner, and second-round draft pick Jalen Collins now pushing Robert Alford on the other side.
If the rush defense, too, can improve, then Atlanta should be competitive. The offense remains a work in progress, with so-so guard Chris Chester the only new starter on the line and still no clarity over who will carry the load at running back between this year’s third round pick Tevin Coleman and last year’s fourth-rounder Devonta Freeman.
But amidst it all, you can be pretty confident that Ryan will carry on making two-thirds of his passes (many of them to the newly re-signed Julio Jones), for more than 4,000 yards and 25 touchdowns. If Quinn can even achieve even a small measure of improvement elsewhere, the Falcons will have a good chance to float back to the top of a weak division. It might be a little too soon to expect much more than that.
Will the Bucs be better with Jameis Winston taking snaps?
Quarterbacks do not typically thrive as rookies. There have been plenty of exceptions – be it Dan Marino making the Pro Bowl or Russell Wilson steering his team to within three points of the NFC Championship game – but for every success story there are plenty more tales of players who just were not ready yet.
Last season offers some indication. Of the three quarterbacks taken in the first round of the 2014 draft, only Teddy Bridgewater threw more scores than interceptions, and even he did not really get going until late in the year – with 10 of his 14 touchdown passes arriving in the final six weeks. Blake Bortles started 14 games in Jacksonville but averaged a mere 6.12 yards per attempt. You won’t need a reminder of how the Johnny Manziel story went.
So what can we expect from Jameis Winston? Annoyingly, we may not get a good indication before opening night. The No1 pick has had a mixed preseason but caution would still be required if he had been setting the world alight. After all, Ryan Leaf outperformed Peyton Manning in August 1998.
Winston has at least been provided with a viable supporting cast. Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson are both big, physical receivers who achieved 1,000-yard seasons with Josh McCown and Mike Glennon throwing the passes in 2014. If Winston does struggle it will not be for want of viable targets.
A sub-par offensive line (though by no means the weakest in the division) has been strengthened with second-round draft picks Donovan Smith and Ali Marpet. Both appear to be on course to win starting spots come opening weekend, at left tackle and right guard respectively.
The running game has impressed in preseason, Doug Martin hinting at some of the decisiveness and power that went missing over the last two years. Again, though, the key word here may be ‘preseason’. If nothing else, Martin will not be short of motivation in a contract year.
Tampa Bay will hope for improvement on defense in Lovie Smith’s second season as head coach. He has emphasised turnovers throughout training camp – something that his teams used to excel at in Chicago – but attempts to strengthen in free agency were underwhelming. Linebacker Bruce Carter never lived up to his potential in Dallas and safety Chris Conte was a liability for the Bears.
The greatest reason to believe the Bucs may be better is simply that we can expect some regression to the mean. Grantland’s Bill Barnwell did a good job earlier this month of outlining how Tampa Bay had been unfortunate to finish 2-14 last year – citing their points differential and unfortunate habit of coming out on the wrong side of close games.
Throw in the fact that the Bucs have one of the softest schedules in the league and it is reasonable to expect that they should be better – but not necessarily because of Winston.
Projected final standings
1) Atlanta Falcons
2) Carolina Panthers
3) New Orleans Saints
4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
