The NFC North has not had a lot of variety at the top in recent years. It’s been the Packers and Vikings who have ruled the root of divisional supremacy. But 2023 sees the Detroit Lions as the favorite to capture the NFC North.
If there’s a change at the top, that means the bottom could get turned over too.
In the latest of a series of posts previewing the division ahead of the 2023 season, Alyssa Barbieri of Bears Wire, Jeff Risdon of Lions Wire, Zach Kruse of Packers Wire and Tyler Forness of Vikings Wire answered the question: Which team is the most likely to finish in last place in the NFC North?
Bears Wire: Green Bay Packers
Let’s be honest, there are only two teams in contention for this selection. While the Bears are coming off a three-win season, they’ve made substantial improvements on both sides of the ball, most notably building around Justin Fields. If Fields takes a step forward as a passer, Chicago should contend for the division. As for Green Bay, it starts at the quarterback position. With Aaron Rodgers now with the Jets, the pressure is on Jordan Love, who has the weakest supporting cast in the division. Not to mention, Love hasn’t done anything to inspire confidence he’s the long-term solution. Green Bay’s defense will keep them somewhat respectable, but they’re primed to take a significant step back after an already underwhelming 8-9 season.
Lions Wire: Green Bay Packers
This is a tough choice. The Bears were so lacking in talent a year ago, while the Vikings have suffered a serious net talent drain this offseason. But the Packers get the tenuous nod for the team most likely to finish last in the division.
Losing Aaron Rodgers is a big part of that, of course. Jordan Love has done little to engender confidence that he’ll be able to come close to what Rodgers was capable of in the offense. Love will have to do that behind the division’s shakiest (with David Bahktiari’s age and durability concerns) offensive line and with relative greenhorns all over the receiving options.
The Packers defense will win them a few games. They’re talented, play well together and fit a well-conceived scheme. The offense has enough talent to rise up and win a few games of its own. This is not a bad team; I think they’ll finish with the most wins of any last-place team in any division. But they face the easiest path to the bottom.
Packers Wire: Chicago Bears
I would guess the Packers are going to be the popular pick here, but how can it not be the Bears, who were -137 in point differential and had the worst record in football in 2022? Despite additions at inside linebacker in free agency, the Bears – who gave up an NFL-high 463 points last season – still have a shaky defensive front, no one to rush the passer and question marks all over the secondary. Justin Fields, while dynamic as a runner, has as much to prove as a passer as any starting quarterback in the NFL. It’s very difficult to win in the NFL without consistency throwing the ball and defending the pass. The Bears need Fields to take a gigantic leap in the passing game and two new inside linebackers to completely transform the defense. I’m skeptical.
To be completely fair, I think all four teams have a realistic chance of finishing last in the division. My guess is all four teams end up in the 6- to 9-win range.
Vikings Wire: Green Bay Packers
After three decades at or near the top of both the NFC Central and North, the Packers are finally ready to take a drop down to the bottom of the division. They traded Aaron Rodgers away to the New York Jets and they are going to be dealing with salary cap issues. Pair that with relying on a lot of young players that will need to step up, including quarterback Jordan Love, could lead to a struggling season. Long term, the Packers will be fine, but this will be a small step back like they did with Rodgers in 2008.
