One of the latest surges in NFL coverage is that of dynamic stats — statistics that don’t simply track the result of the play, but rather note how the play itself unfolded and the probably that it should’ve yielded the return that it did. Next Gen Stats is one of the leaders in this area, their player tracking data provides a wealth of new concepts to stat tracking in football.
One way that Next Gen Stats is providing new, unique performance assessment provides a startling contract between how the Dolphins two contenders for the starting quarterback position have performed through Miami’s first three preseason games. And while the raw data (such as passer rating) suggests these two have played comparably well this August, Next Gen Stats tells a different story.
Dolphins veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick is performing below expected measures across the board as it relates to completion percentage, while Rosen is overwhelmingly positive. Next Gen Stats notes that the measures in which the two are being compared “is derived from the metric Completion Probability, which is the likelihood any one pass is completed based on Next Gen Stats player tracking data.”
This tells quite the story — based on available targets, separation and room to work within the pocket, Ryan Fitzpatrick has performed below the average expectation of an NFL quarterback. Josh Rosen? He’s completing passes at a 43% better rate than would be expected for an average quarterback on his reps.
Sure — the miraculous heave to Preston Williams was an outlier. But it’s also only one rep. Do the Dolphins subscribe to such measures of “analytics”? If so, this would be a hefty notch on Josh Rosen’s belt as the team deciphers who should play quarterback this season.
