The latest federal Newspoll has the combined vote for One Nation and the Coalition down two points to 47%. This is in line with most other recent polls, the exception being last week’s Redbridge poll that had the combined right at 53%.
The improved position for the left comes despite Anthony Albanese’s net approval slumping four points to -22, just above his record low in early June.
In Victorian polling ahead of the state election in late November, an error by The Financial Review meant last week’s Redbridge poll was mistakenly reported as 53–47 to the Coalition against Labor when it should have been 57–43. A Morgan SMS poll gave the Coalition a 51–49 lead over Labor.
Federal Newspoll
A national Newspoll, conducted August 3–7 from a sample of 1,242, gave Labor 29% of the primary vote (down one since the previous Newspoll, three weeks ago), One Nation 29% (down one), the Coalition 18% (down one), the Greens 14% (up two) and all Others 10% (up one).
It’s the lowest Labor primary vote in Newspoll since Julia Gillard was Labor PM in 2013, while the Coalition’s primary vote is one point above the record low for them in late June. The Coalition’s drop contradicts a trend towards them in other polls in The Poll Bludger’s BludgerTrack.
No two-party estimate was released, but the two-point drop in the combined One Nation/Coalition vote and one-point gain in the combined Labor/Greens vote indicates movement to Labor.
Albanese’s net approval slumped four points to -22, just above his record low of -24 in early June. This continues a streak of Newspolls where his net approval has been at or below -15 since late February. The graph below shows Albanese’s net approval in Newspoll with a smoothed line.
Angus Taylor’s net approval surged nine points to -12, with 46% dissatisfied and 34% satisfied. Pauline Hanson’s net approval was down three points to -3 (49% dissatisfied, 46% satisfied).
In the standard better PM question, Albanese led Taylor by 44–37 (previously 44–36). In a forced choice three-way question, Albanese had 46% (steady), Hanson 31% (down one) and Taylor 23% (up one). After preferences of those who selected Taylor, Albanese led Hanson by 56–44 (previously 57–43).
Victorian Redbridge poll was reported with wrong two-party
Last Tuesday, I said the Victorian Redbridge poll gave the Coalition a 53–47 lead over Labor, but this was actually 57–43. When originally published Monday night, The Financial Review’s report included text that said 57–43 and a graphic with 53–47. On Tuesday, the text was changed to the graphic’s 53–47. But on Wednesday, the pollster said it was 57–43.
Primary votes in this poll were 30% Coalition, 23% Labor, 22% One Nation, 14% Greens and 11% Others. The Freshwater Victorian poll had similar primaries (Labor two points higher on 25% and Others two points lower on 9%), but it gave the Coalition only a 52–48 two-party lead.
Only a point of the difference in two-party estimates is explained by the primary vote differences, with the rest attributable to differences in respondent allocation of preferences.
Victorian SMS Morgan poll
A Morgan SMS Victorian poll, conducted August 5–7 from a sample of 2,084, gave Labor 26% of the primary vote (up 0.5 since the April SMS poll), the Coalition 26% (up two), One Nation 23.5% (down one), the Greens 12.5% (down one), independents 8% (down 0.5) and others 4% (steady).
By respondent preferences, the Coalition led Labor by 51–49, a two-point gain for the Coalition. Labor led One Nation by 56–44, a 2.5-point gain for Labor. In a three-party preferred, Labor had 43.5% (down one), the Coalition 30% (up two) and One Nation 26.5% (down one).
Labor Premier Ben Carroll’s net approval was +8 (51% approve, 43% disapprove), much better than former premier Jacinta Allan’s -34. Liberal leader Jess Wilson’s net approval was up 20 points to +20 (58.5% approve, 38.5% disapprove). One Nation’s Victorian leader, Warren Pickering, was at -23.5 (58.5% disapprove, 35% approve).
In a three-way preferred premier question, Carroll had 46.5%, Wilson 35.5% and Pickering 16%.
SMS polls are likely to be prone to having too many motivated respondents. This is shown by the leaders’ ratings. Carroll had only been premier for a week when this poll was conducted, but just 6% did’t have an opinion of him. News about One Nation is dominated by Hanson and Pickering had been Victorian One Nation leader for only days, yet 6.5% had no opinion of him.
The percentage with no opinion of Carroll and Pickering seems unbelievably low.
This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.
