Later, dudes
I’ve come to the end of the road. I need to fold this tent and get ready to join my good friends on The Drum in a little while. Like the two good people in the background of Mike’s wonderful chamber shot, I am all out of small talk – in this format at least.
So, let’s take stock of today, Tuesday.
- Mental health groups said it would be great if the Abbott government could make up its mind about funding so they could make critical decisions well ahead of June 30.
- Opinion polls delivered mixed field evidence for the Abbott government. All had Labor winning an election held today, but Newspoll went from Labor having a ten point lead a fortnight ago to Labor having a teensy lead; the Essential poll still had Labor with a big lead. As my favourite poll whisperer, Stanford’s Simon Jackman, noted sagely – nothing means anything terribly much specific, week to week, given small sample sizes. As always, the trend is the thing.
- Communications minister Malcolm Turnbull said sorry Rupert, I can’t give you anymore sport on pay TV.
- Labor said it was appalling to have to clean up the Abbott government’s mess on metadata, but (sigh), someone has to do it. Green senator Scott Ludlam said we aren’t doing it, so cleaning up messes is strictly voluntary.
- Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten were both in trouser pockets. Shorten thought Abbott needed to get his hand out of pensioner’s pockets. Abbott thought Labor needed to get out of the pockets of people who had unclaimed bank accounts.
- Treasurer Joe Hockey thought a surplus would be delivered as soon as possible.
To all, a good night. We’ll be back at the usual time on the morrows.
We are just going to keep moving towards that outcome.
That’s the social services minister Scott Morrison, on the surplus which is now coming. Soon.
More polls. Goody.
The Essential poll is out this afternoon. In that survey Labor is ahead 54% to the Coalition’s 46% on the two party preferred measure. I was going to say this is more like Newspoll a fortnight ago than Newspoll today, but in some circles that comparison might look provocative. I might be accused of trolling myself, which would be complicated to say the least.
There’s unhappy news for Joe Hockey. 27% of the sample approve of the job Joe Hockey is doing as treasurer and 51% disapprove. 22% didn’t have a view.
Essential number crunching brains trust:
This represents a change in net rating from -9 to -24 since this question was asked in August.
Back to the House briefly. I referenced a to-and-fro between Liberal George Christensen and Greens deputy leader Adam Bandt over what Bandt may or may not have said by way of interjection during a Dorothy Dixer on child brides.
Liberal backbencher George Christensen alleged during question time that Bandt, the member for Melbourne, during the Dixer on child brides, made the following interjection: “At least they’re not in detention.”
I mean, that is disgraceful.
And I would ask that he withdraw that comment.
After question time Bandt said he had been misrepresented by Christensen – but he didn’t really outline how.
A spokesman for Bandt has called me to clarify. He says the interjection was not dealt with accurately by Christensen at a couple of levels. Bandt’s spokesman said the Greens deputy leader remarked, after a statement from justice minister Michael Keenan that the government wanted to help children – unless they are in detention. So according to Bandt’s spokesman, the point was the government wanted to help children under duress – unless they were in detention.
If any readers were confused, I hope that clarifies the matter. Christensen for his part was sticking by his version of events in the personal explanations post question time.
While we are still on senate business, my colleague Shalailah Medhora, says the metadata debate is not the only instance of bipartisan peace love and harmony between the major parties today. “A bill that would expand the powers of the refugee review tribunal (RRT) to deny asylum claims is set to pass parliament after Labor and the Coalition reached a compromise on amendments.” If you want more particulars, you can read that story here.
The metadata debate is not yet back on in the senate. While question time zoomed overhead, Penny Wong’s spokesperson has confirmed that Labor’s senate leader does not plan to speak on the metadata bill.
Ok, let’s catch up on the forwards and the backwards and the sideways.
I did mention before that the Australian Christian Lobby broke the news earlier today that the Coalition partyroom failed to discuss same sex marriage today. We thought the partyroom might discuss it, because of a private members bill from LDP senator David Leyonhjelm which is coming down the senate order of business this week.
Leyonhjelm, who framed this up last week as a key test of the Coalition, is not very happy. He wants Abbott to give his MPs a free vote.
I understand the Liberal party has not found time to discuss the Freedom to Marry Bill in its party room this morning. Mr Abbott has now had months to think about this question, and thousands of people, both for and against, have engaged in the debate. It appears these people were mistaken in believing that the prime minister cared about their concerns one way or another. All we are waiting for is to hear whether or not Mr Abbott will allow his members to debate and vote on it freely. This should not be a matter that takes up a great deal of time.
It would appear Mr Abbott has no use for the name ‘Liberal’. Since he doesn’t want it, I’ll have it, and the great tradition it represents. There is no doubt that Australia, like much of the rest of the developed world, is on the road to marriage equality. I encourage Mr Abbott to aspire to being something other than an historical speedbump. I remind the prime minister that he is on the record both prior to his election and after it that marriage equality would be a matter for his party room.
I challenge him once again to honour his word.
Further questions have been placed on the notice paper. There are a bunch of personal explanations – Adam Bandt says he was misrepresented by Liberal George Christensen, Christensen says he’s been misrepresented by Adam Bandt, the prime minister said he slightly misrepresented a funding figure (it was more generous than he’d said), Bill Shorten says he was misrepresented by Christopher Pyne on a question I didn’t get a window to report on, Pyne says he misrepresented Shorten because the Sydney Morning Herald may have been incorrect about the case he referenced. Now we are onto formal misrepresentations and counter representations – the matter of public importance.
The photo-go-round.
JBish shows PM Tony Abbott of photo of herself and Joe during #QT @murpharoo @GuardianAus #politicslive pic.twitter.com/q8rXR1XRnK
— Mike Bowers (@mpbowers) March 24, 2015
Because I’m happy. Clap along, if you ..
Bill Shorten:
Q: Given that the prime minister has ruled out further cuts to foreign aid, but today, in a range of questions from the opposition, has specifically refused to rule out cuts to pensions, cuts to schools, cuts to hospitals – isn’t this budget all about the prime minister’s job and nothing about Australians?
Madam Speaker:
I’m afraid that’s not good enough. It’s out of order. I call the honourable member for Bass. The manager of opposition business. Point of order?
Tony Burke:
Under what standing order was that question ruled out?
Madam Speaker:
100. I call the honourable the member for Bass.
Clap along if you feel like a room without a roof/Because I’m happy/Clap along if you feel like happiness is the truth/Because I’m happy
Not much ironic in this body language. All friends together, right?
Sledging the Taoiseach
Tony Abbott is off on a frolic considering Bill Shorten’s various deficiencies, including his tendency to be .. well, philosophical.
You know the Irish political philosopher ..
Abbott pauses, sensing danger. Holocausts. Goebbels. Oh, never fear, it’s just the Irish. He can hop on in.
Abbott, continuing:
I shouldn’t – I don’t want to get into any more trouble.
I know not all Irishmen have a sense of humour these days, Madam Speaker.
Taosieach Enda Kenny recently gave the thumbs down to a St Patrick’s day message from Abbott.
To be sure, to be sure, he did. Humourless, those Irish. Ah, the enduring wisdom of the Anglophile.
Q: Given the government has ruled out further cuts to foreign aid, will the prime minister also rule out his $50bn cut to health which will have a devastating impact on New South Wales hospitals?
Tony Abbott continues to deny that a cut exists. It does exist – if you are not inclined to believe me, the NSW premier Mike Baird said the cut in question needed to be rectified just the other day. The cut sits outside the forward estimates period.
The treasurer, for his part, has just invoked the f word in relation to the looming May budget.
Joe Hockey:
Today marks the seven-week mark until the nation’s next budget. And the focus of the 2015 budget will be to build a stronger Australian economy.
The budget will be responsible, it will be measured, and it will be fair.
The Dorothy Dixers thus far have been on conservation efforts in the Great Barrier Reef, radicalisation, and child brides.
Liberal backbencher George Christensen alleges the member for Melbourne during Dixer on child brides made the interjection: “At least they’re not in detention.”
I mean, that is disgraceful. And I would ask that he withdraw that comment.
It’s cooking all round the chamber. Madam Speaker has ejected one Labor type for backchat.
Manager of oppositon business, Tony Burke.
Madam Speaker, did you just kick a member of parliament out for saying “Why don’t you ever kick anyone out from the other side?”
Is that what just happened? I didn’t think you could get to the next level but we’re there.
A question from the Greens deputy leader Adam Bandt.
Q: My question is to the prime minister. When the Greens first raised issues of rape and child abuse in the Nauruan detention facility, the immigration minister said staff from Save The Children were coaching detainees to make these stories up. Given that the Moss report finds compelling evidence of rape and abuse but no evidence of wrongdoing by Save The Children staff, when will you apologise to Save The Children and its workers?
And crucially, how much longer will you leave the 107 children currently in Nauru locked up and exposed to abuse?
Tony Abbott says it is appalling and reprehensible that misconduct of a grievous type seems to have taken place at this centre.
It is absolutely appalling that this has happened. And we are working with the government of Nauru, which runs the centre, to try to ensure that this kind of thing is appropriately dealt with, that it’s punished, and that it never happens again.
The prime minister says it would be easier to take Bandt’s inquiry seriously if the Greens were prepared to give credit where credit is due.
This government has stopped the boats. In stopping the boats, we have stopped the deaths at sea and in stopping the boats we have allowed the children to leave detention.
No word on when Save The Children will get that apology.
Four word slogans, three word achievements
Labor’s families spokesperson Jenny Macklin has a question for Tony Abbott, which Abbott bats to Scott Morrison.
Q: Given the the government has ruled out further cuts to foreign aid, will the (minister) also rule out increasing the pension age to the highest in the developed world?
Scott Morrison:
As those opposite would know, they were the ones who originally put forward measures through this parliament to increase the pension age to 67 – and they did that with the support of those on this side of the chamber when we sat in opposition, because we understood the need to ensure that we had a sustainable safety net for future Australians.
Now they find themselves in opposition, they seem to think they have to run out of ideas.
Today the leader of the opposition has launched a four-word slogan hand he has put it into a web site. Let me tell you the difference between the four-word slogans of those opposite and the three-word achievements of this government.
We have stopped the boats. We have scrapped the carbon tax. We have got rid of the mining tax and we have halved the trajectory of Labor’s debt.
Bill Shorten:
Q: Given that the government has ruled out further cuts to foreign aid, will the prime minister also rule out his $80-a-week cut to pensions?
Tony Abbott:
Madam Speaker, this is a government which is putting pensions up, and this government will put pensions up twice a year, every year.
That’s what we’ll do.
The Australian aid budget is under pressure and there is one reason it is under pressure. The Australian Labor party.
Spare me the crocodile tears! If you’re concerned about the aid budget, look into the mirror.
This is the foreign minister Julie Bishop attempting to slap down a cheeky question from Labor’s Tanya Plibersek. Plibersek wanted to know if the aid budget was ok, and whether she had any advice for colleagues wanting to avoid budget cuts.
Bishop, who sounds a bit hoarse, went the shout.
Question time
There was no time for a lunchtime summary today – apologies – the tide is taking us relentlessly towards question time. The hour of glower is opening with a tribute to Lee Kuan Yew, who died Monday, aged 91.
Tony Abbott:
In the 1980s, when Singapore was surging ahead, and Australia risked stagnating, he said that we risked ending up, to use that phrase, the poor white trash of Asia. Madam Speaker, that phrase stung, because we feared that it might be true.
I have to say that a quarter century of reform under Bob Hawke and Paul Keating and then under John Howard and Peter Costello restored our position. But if we are to avoid his prophecy, the challenge for this generation is to ensure that the age of reform in this country has been merely interrupted not ended.
Very quickly before question time. Mike, bless him, popped down to that book launch that was first a minority policy launch and then simply a book launch. The book in question is called Minority Policy. Clear? No. Let’s move on in any case.
Nick Xenophon is always quick with the zingers.
We should form a party and call it Palmer or Xenophon – the acronym would work well.
(If you don’t get it, think of a word that rhymes with socks. Clear? No. Let’s move on in any case.)
A couple of quick fact checks on Stephen Conroy’s chamber contribution right now. He says the bill being debated now is of a wholly different character than the original proposal brought forward by the government. The bill has been amended, that is true, and the safeguards imposed have certainly improved it. But a wholly different character is a stretch on my analysis. As is Conroy’s statement that the new Public Interest Advocate – new appointees who will speak on behalf of journalists if police require warrants to access their metadata – are required by this legislation to walk in the shoes of the journalist. They are not, actually.
A Labor spokesperson has rung to inform me my working knowledge of Penny Wong is out of date. Wong (Labor’s senate leader) is no longer on parliament’s joint intelligence committee. She left in November. Complete news to me – the last time I sat in on a hearing Wong was at the table. But now she’s zipped. I’ll check whether she plans to participate in the debate. The shadow defence minister Stephen Conroy is up now, talking about balancing freedoms.
Updated
Just a quick update – same sex marriage was not discussed in today’s Coalition partyroom. It is not yet clear why, but as facts emerge, I’ll share them. Couple of quick bullet points from today’s briefing, courtesy of my colleague Lenore Taylor.
Tony Abbott described Bill Shorten as a litany of screeching complaints. One MP launched a complaint of his or her own: there was a gripe about not allowing enough government speakers in yesterday’s condolence debate marking the passing of Malcolm Fraser. The MP noted the party has only itself to blame if (it) loses the history wars.
Ludlam is telling people how to get around the proposed metadata regime – use an offshore provider: Gmail, Facebook messaging. It’s perfectly legal, he says. Anonymity is not illegal, encryption is not illegal, circumvention is not illegal, Ludlam says. He says citizens should take their power back.
Ludlam is now giving out Bill Shorten’s office number – do give him a call, the Green senator says. Raise your objections.
If you are listening to this debate and you don’t like how it ends, change the two party system once and for all.
Two words: national security. All that it takes for Labor to flop into a state of bipartisanship.
Greens senator Scott Ludlam. I just note in passing – strange that Labor’s senate leader Penny Wong didn’t open the batting for Labor in today’s metadata debate. She’s on the intelligence and security committee.
This is a bill to entrench passive mass surveillance: Ludlam
Green senator Scott Ludlam is taking his turn in the debate. He says the metadata package represents a dramatic extension of state power. It recasts the privacy boundary between citizens and the state. Anyone who tells you otherwise either does not understand technology, or is lying to your face.
This is a bill to entrench passive mass surveillance.
Updated
While Jacinta Collins is facing off against the government on legislation she ultimately intends to ultimately support – I should mention that Liberal senator Brett Mason intends to retire from the red room.
Mason has confirmed his intentions this morning. This, from his statement.
I will continue to represent the interests of the people of Queensland in the immediate future but intend to resign as a Senator prior to the budget sittings in May. It has been a great honour to represent the interests of Queensland as a senator in the Australian parliament for the past fifteen and a half years.
It was a privilege to serve in the ministries of both the Howard and Abbott governments; as parliamentary secretary for health and ageing and parliamentary secretary to the minister for foreign affairs respectively. I take this opportunity to thank my parliamentary colleagues and, in particular, the dedicated supporters of the Liberal National party for the support they have given me throughout my political career.
I shouldn’t assume all readers know what the metadata package is. This is the legislation that will require telcos and ISPs to keep records of the private communictions “metadata” of Australians for two years – in the event that material is needed by police or agencies.
Labor, between a rock and a hard place: Collins
Labor’s Jacinta Collins is kicking off today’s metadata debate in the senate. She says nobody in the ALP likes rescuing the government from its own incompetence.
Which rather begs the question, why do it?
Collins says government incompetence and Greens hysteria has made it hard to have a sensible discussion about metadata.
Updated
I’ll update you on the ACL’s “scoop” as soon as I can get to it.
The chamber bells are ringing. In the red room, the manager of government business Mitch Fifield will shortly move that the metadata bill be exempt from the cut-off. The senate is sitting later this week to deal with government business, including the metadata package. The Greens have just released sixteen amendments to the metadata package. The second reading debate is proceeding now. Metadata was orginally third on today’s list – now it’s moved to top of the pops.
Updated
We have the usual bedlam all at once on Tuesday.
The Australian Christian Lobby is welcoming news that hasn’t yet broken yet.
The Australian Christian Lobby has welcomed news that the Liberal party will continue to vote as one on marriage. With advocates for redefining marriage aggressively lobbying Liberal MPs and senators ahead of this morning’s party room meeting, more than 20,000 Australians responded by emailing Liberal parliamentarians urging them to continue to vote as one.
(Same sex marriage was due for some kind of consideration in the Coalition partyroom meeting this morning given David Leyonhjelm bill on marriage equality will go the the red room this week.)
Seven Network political editor Mark Riley would like to know when the Labor policies are coming, given this was supposed to be the year when policies came.
Shorten thanks Riley for the opportunity to restate what Labor has already done, which wasn’t actually the invitiation, but never mind. Moving forward. Shorten says Labor will keep working for ideas in a disciplined way. He’s hopeful we’ll watch something that will be said at the submarine institute.
We are doing our work in opposition so that if we get the privilege to form a government in this nation we can articulate to Australians a plan for the next decade and two decades – not this sort of slap-stick comedy where measures are on and off and on and off again – as we see under the current chaotic crew.
Updated
Shorten thinks Tony Abbott should clear the air about his taxpayer funded travel to Melbourne at the weekend.
Q: Didn’t Julia Gillard do the same thing – claim a travel entitlement for a staffer’s wedding?
Shorten:
The only reason you’re asking me the question is because Tony Abbott’s got some explaining to do.
I think what we need do is have Tony Abbott do the explaining that Australians want to see him do.
Fortunately for Bill Shorten, Labor’s families spokeswoman Jenny Macklin is present and understands how the pension is made sustainable.
It already is, she says. Particularly if you move constructively on superannuation adequacy.
Jenny Macklin:
I want to emphasise that the pension is sustainable. We know how important it is that pensioners are able to live a reasonable life on the pension. As Bill Shorten has just emphasised, the full pension is worth around $20,000 a year.
We spend one of the lowest amounts on the aged pension in the developed world. What we also know is it is very important to encourage and support people over their working life to take out superannuation, to contribute to their own retirement incomes.
It is this government that is making retirement incomes less sustainable by freezing the increase in the superannuation guarantee.
First question.
Q: How would you make the pension system sustainable?
Bill Shorten:
First things first. The first way we create certainty in the pension system in Australia is Tony Abbott should stop lying to Australians and breaking his promises. Labor proposed changes to the pension when we were in office and what we were able to do is see pensioners get reasonable and modest increases. Let’s not exaggerate here about how well off pensioners are. The pension per annum delivers $20,000 a year for someone on the full pension. If Tony Abbott’s only plan for Australia’s future is to cut the rate of increase of pensions, then he has no plan for Australia’s future.
Q: What is your plan though?
Bill Shorten:
I will come to that.
Let’s cross now to the Jazzercise. No Jazzercise. Just a new Labor campaign on the pension changes: Mr Abbott, don’t pocket our pension.
Bill Shorten:
If Tony Abbott can promise not to cut foreign aid in the upcoming budget, then he can promise not to cut pensions in the upcoming budget.
(Julie Bishop, through that eyeroll, managed to get an undertaking from finance minister Mathias Cormann and treasurer Joe Hockey yesterday that aid would not be touched in the May budget. You can sense, therefore, what’s coming down the pipe in question time, can’t you?)
Initiatives in the budget will be focused on jobs, growth and opportunity*
- Small business package
- Childcare reform
- Infrastructure investment
- Free trade agreements
- Integrity in our tax and welfare systems
(* Except possibly for dot point five which would appear to deal with a scramble for revenue and yet another welfare crackdown. For clarity this asterix analysis is mine, not the treasurer’s.)
We will get the budget back to surplus as soon as possible.
(The big news has been buried on slide 12.)
All new spending will be offset by savings that are responsible and fair.
Woo hoo, as Homer Simpson would say. (The slides confirm a childcare package will be in the budget.)
While I wait for any Jazzercise updates, a package of slides has just arrived from the treasurer, Joe Hockey’s office, which outlines a presentation Hockey made to colleagues in the partyroom this morning about the budget.
A promising opening.
The focus of the 2015 budget will be to build a stronger Australian economy.
Oh me, oh my. We can only hope a Bill Shorten as Jane Fonda cameo looms.
The #Jazzercise class awaiting @billshortenmp at a Canberra senior's centre #auspol #pensions pic.twitter.com/oG9kEE4ppz
— Lauren Gianoli (@LaurenGianoli) March 24, 2015
(Was Jane Fonda jazzercise?)
Breaking: nothing
Speaking of lurking. An alert came before presaging an event for Clive Palmer and Nick Xenophon and a minority policy later this morning.
What could this be? Well, nothing as it happens. Nick Xenophon, clarifying.
As much as I’m always happy to be in the same room as Clive Palmer MP and to chat with him, news of a joint press conference today came as a surprise. Nevertheless, I look forward to seeing Clive at the launch today of Minority Policy by Richard Denniss and Brenton Prosser.
A trend pioneered by the Liberal senator Bill Heffernan of lurking in the background of press conferences is really taking off. Last week, the Liberal senator Cory Bernardi lurked in the back of David Leyonhjelm’s press conference about his private member’s bill legalising same sex marriage. Today, crossbencher Ricky Muir was lurking as big welfare made their pitch to parliamentarians.
Lurking. The new introspection.
In the spirit of letting the poll whisperers speak today. Readers are concerned (as they often are) that I’ve just mentioned Newspoll and not the most recent Morgan poll, which produced a starkly different result. I don’t actually need to mention Morgan – many of you folks work Morgan over exhaustively in the thread. Power to your arms. Go to town. If you happen to read this blog exclusively above the line, in two party preferred terms, Morgan had Labor ahead 56% to 44%. Over to Edmund Tadros (who runs a comprehensive poll of polls and a swing calculator for the AFR.)
The gap between the pollsters may be due a range of factors such as voter volatility, news events, methodological differences or statistical noise.
Updated
I missed this, so thanks to AAP.
- The Greens want the Senate to hold an inquiry into allegations asylum seekers were sexually abused at an offshore processing centre on Nauru. It follows the public release of a independent review which uncovered claims of sexual harassment and abuse, including three allegations of rape, inside the Australian-funded centre. Greens leader Christine Milne says a Senate inquiry is needed to allow the allegations to be aired under parliamentary privilege.
The prime minister initially responded to the Moss review by saying that “occasionally … things happen”. Abbott later toughened up his position, acknowledging the “very disturbing” findings of the process.
Our non-specific thing is better than their awful thing.
Labor’s deputy leader Tanya Plibersek.
Q: Will Labor commit to restoring the aid budget to what it was in 2013?
Well I can tell you that when we come back into government after $11bn of cuts, we’ll certainly have a huge repair job to do.
Unfortunately at this stage we don’t know how deep, how big that repair job will be, we don’t know whether there’ll be further cuts.
But I can tell you this, we’ll be doing better on foreign aid than the Liberals have done.
Courageous conservatives. Just because you need it.
I'm running for President and I hope to earn your support! pic.twitter.com/0UTqaIoytP
— Ted Cruz (@tedcruz) March 23, 2015
Ok, maybe I need it.
Given we have a crack team on the NSW election, I’m not going to spark a demarcation dispute (see what happens when I drift into IR territory, I go all shop steward) by hitting out in the direction of Sydney.
I’ve already shared this on Twitter this morning but if you weren’t up with me at 5.30am you should read my colleague David Marr’s piece on Mike Baird for a number of reasons, but most particularly in my view for this, immortal line(s).
Baird is mobbed in the foyers by delighted grandmothers. They light up as he passes by. They paw him. It’s erotic. An embarrassed grin settles on his face. This crowd is too old for selfies. He is patient as they fumble with their cameras.
It’s quite funny for old people like me who covered industrial relations in the 1990’s to periodically catch up with all the brand new thinking. Once Australian employers were hell bent on ensuring the end of industry-wide agreements. The prevailing fashion was the workplace level agreement, or even better, the individual employment contract.
But not apparently anymore. Hot of the presses this morning is what we used to call in the ye olde days, a model agreement, between Business South Australia and the Shop, Distributive & Allied Employees’ Association, that significantly reduces penalty rates for retailers at weekends and on public holidays in return in for an increase in base pay.
Apparently some industry-wide agreements are more equal than others.
Tuesday, now and ahead. The various party rooms are meeting downstairs as we speak. The chambers will be underway at lunchtime. The government’s metadata legislation is listed for debate later on today in the red room – but there’s migration legislation up first.
Lest you think I’m joking about my morning hot beverage delivery.
Damnation @mpbowers pic.twitter.com/SE8VtPr9we
— Katharine Murphy (@murpharoo) March 23, 2015
Folks with us last week might remember that the education minister Christopher Pyne posted a picture on Twitter of a fortune cookie he consumed at Kingston restaurant last week. The fortune provided some helpful advice in the middle of all the controversy about higher education deregulation. In the spirit of Tuesday, this advice was ironic of course.
Mike has been enormously inspired by potential sources of external advice, both for politics as a whole, and this blog in particular.
Given Simon Jackman’s caution in the last post about over analysing the meanings of individual surveys with small sample sizes, we thought we might crack open one of Chris’ Crackers in the event a signal emerged from the noise.
Our first Chris’ Crackers for the week. Some sage advice here for a prime minister looking to consolidate an improvement that may or may not be a trend.
At some ungodly hour this morning, I had a brief Twitter conversation with my friend Simon Jackman – who is a political scientist and applied statistician at Stanford University – about the Newspoll.
I’ve asked him to send me some thoughts. Being such a lovely human, he’s obliged. His point is none of these fortnightly polls mean anything terribly specific, despite our tendency to freakishly over-analyse them.
The Coalition is likely improving on the current field evidence, but we need to see the trend to work out the how’s and why’s.
Here’s Simon:
A few reactions to the Newspoll numbers.
Its not a moral failing to have a sample size of 1,100, and the incentives for journalists to make the strongest case they can with the poll numbers are easily understood. The 4% jump in Coalition two party preferred measure since the last Newspoll is impressive, sure. Even with the moderate sample sizes Newspoll runs it is nonetheless extremely likely that the Coalition’s stocks really are improving.
But changes in the primaries aren’t so large relative to sampling error, save for the three point jump for the Coalition:
Last two Newspolls: Coalition primary 38 to 41: probability Coalition primary actually increased: 91% (given results of last two Newspolls, sample sizes, Newspoll’s rounding of their results for publication, my guess as to the likely effects of weighting and missing data).
Probability Coalition primary is actually 40% or higher: 70%.
Last two Newspolls: Labor primary 39 to 37: probability Labor primary actually fell: 72%.
Last two Newspolls: Greens 12 to 11: probability Green primary actually fell: 61%.
None of these trip conventional levels of statistical significance used in science and academia (95%).
I’m not saying the 95% convention ought to apply, but still.
Bottom line is that Newspoll sample sizes are too small to allow us to say much when we compare any given pair of Newspolls.
This is true for just about any single media poll — there is only so much sample and survey time a media organisation can afford to buy.
Most of the time the poll-to-poll changes are too small to trip conventional standards of statistical significance; when we do get big changes they are almost too large to be politically plausible, overstating the true amount of change in the population, and we’re likely to see some attenuation in the next poll.
Sure, politics sometimes gets quite dramatic and opinion really will shift 4 or more points over a two week span (or less).
But not often.
Also doing the rounds in the news cycle this morning, a story from the Herald Sun concerning prime ministerial travel over this past weekend.
Ellen Whinnett and Angus Thompson report: “Prime minister Tony Abbott used a taxpayer-funded RAAF plane to fly to Melbourne, where he attended the birthday party of mining millionaire and big Liberal donor Paul Marks. Mr Abbott joined about 45 people for the birthday party at the exclusive Huntingdale Golf Club on Sunday night. He started the day in Brisbane and flew to Sydney for the NSW Liberal election campaign launch with premier Mike Baird before flying with a small group aboard the RAAF VIP plane to Melbourne. Once he arrived at Huntingdale, the PM shed his tie and mingled with guests, enjoying crayfish and aged Wagyu beef with a glass of chardonnay. He also gave a speech in honour of Mr Marks.
His office defended the use of the VIP plane, with a spokesman advising: “The prime minister had other work-related engagements in Melbourne on Sunday. All travel was undertaken within the rules.’’
Mental health has been a big issue in the morning news cycle. As my colleague Lenore Taylor reports: “Over 70 mental health organisations have written to prime minister Tony Abbott imploring him to maintain $300m in annual funding to mental health services that are preparing to sack staff as they face an end to commonwealth grants on 30 June. Groups including Headspace, Suicide Prevention Australia, the Black Dog Institute and Sane Australia wrote that “the continued uncertainty is now resulting in services being shut down and staff attrition”.
The Abbott government plans to release a review of mental health services soon. The point of this morning’s planned intervention is not soon enough for groups having to make big decisions before the middle of the year.
The talking point on the eyeroll, should you be interested, is Joe Hockey was being ironic when he prompted Julie Bishop to roll her eyes. I’ve counted three mentions of irony thus far.
It is raining in Canberra this morning. At least I hope this is rain.
Good morning to Mike Bowers.
This is the summer of our introspections, he’s just said to me. He’ll follow up shortly by asking me if I want a hot cup of PineOClean.
What this poll shows is the voters are now looking at Labor.
Malcolm Turnbull said it on radio before. Now the infrastructure minister Jamie Briggs has said it at the doors of the ministerial entrance.
Let the official government talking point show that the Newspoll confirms voters are looking at Labor’s non-existent agenda. Well, the government is looking at it, in the hope Labor’s non-existent agenda proves a more compelling subject than the government’s completely incoherent agenda.
This is the new test in Australian politics – have you noticed – ‘they are so much worser.’ Pretty compelling stuff, isn’t it? Let’s lean in closer to make sure we don’t miss a moment.
Small business minister Bruce Billson has just told Sky News the Liberal party had a ..
.. moment of introspection ..
but has now walked right by.
Billson means that moment of introspection a few weeks ago when the party had a debate over whether or not the leader, Tony Abbott, should still be the leader.
Introspection. So yesterday.
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The early morning news cycle is still preoccupied with eyerolls. If you weren’t with me yesterday, or if you’ve failed to check in on any social media platform for the past 24 hours or so, it’s possible you could have missed the foreign minister Julie Bishop rolling her eyes at Joe Hockey yesterday during his condolence speech marking the passing of Malcolm Fraser.
In the event you did miss it, Julie Bishop rolled her eyes at Joe Hockey. The eyeroll seemed to relate to a cut to foreign aid that was there in the morning but not there in the afternoon. Turnbull, during his ABC interview just before, thought the whole incident may be over analysed. (Can you imagine such a thought crime when there is so much head room still left in the proposition that Julie Bishop’s poker face – suddenly – ah .. mazingly – cracked?) Turnbull also imagined that the journalist who set the over-analysis wheels in motion on Monday, The Australian’s Greg Sheridan, might have got his facts wrong.
Q: Ricky Muir, are you feral?
Senate cross bencher Ricky Muir is live currently on ABC radio. (The prime minister called the senate cross bench feral last week.)
No, Ricky Muir is pretty sure he’s not feral, having reviewed the field evidence.
Ricky Muir:
I don’t think the senate is being feral. I think the senate is trying to view bills on their merits.
Other moving parts from the Muir interview:
- The reality is we are facing higher education reform in the future, Muir says. I want to see Labor’s proposal.
- He says he’s not concerned about a double dissolution election.
- Pension reform will need to be fair. Essentially I am opposed. I don’t think targeting pensioners is the way to go.
- He’s a supporter of penalty rates.
- Breaking. Clive Palmer is not a bully. He doesn’t think so anyway, he still talks to him when they bump into each other around the corridors.
Well good morning everyone and welcome to the resumption of normal political business in the national capital, whatever that may mean.
Republican senator Ted Cruz, who has now declared himself a candidate to be the next president of the United States, has, overnight, dreamed of a nation of courageous conservatives rising up to retake their country. Conservatives of the more timid variety in Australia can dream that this morning’s Newspoll result presages some kind of (positive) rising up on that part of Australian voters.
Despite a less than stellar parliamentary week for the Coalition and for the prime minister last week, there’s a bounce in today’s Newspoll. On the primary vote measure, the government has recorded its best result since September. This particular survey is slightly whiplash inducing, given the two party preferred gap between the major parties in the last Newspoll was ten points. Labor was ten points ahead. Now Labor leads the government 51 to 49. As is said periodically by psephologists the world over, go figure.
Speaking of News (Corp, not poll), as we go live this morning, the communications minister Malcolm Turnbull is on Radio National Breakfast being asked about Rupert Murdoch’s favourite topic, Turnbull’s ambition to overhaul Australia’s media ownership laws.
Turnbull has recently popped this mildly explosive proposition on Tony Abbott’s desk for further action, or perhaps, inaction, depending on the prevailing winds. (Thanks, Malcolm. No thank you, Tony.)
Q: The (cross media ownership laws) are done, they are past their use by date. They need to change now, don’t they?
Malcolm Turnbull:
I think they do.
Q: Are you going to push this?
Turnbull:
My views are very clear, everyone knows I think they are out of date. They were designed in a pre-internet era and they relate to a media landscape that doesn’t exist.
The two out of three rule, which for example says you can only control a two out of a newspaper, radio station or television station in the same market, was designed in an era when the only forms of media were newspapers, radio and TV.
Well of course that’s completely transformed.
Rupert Murdoch’s views are also clear: if Turnbull wants media ownership back on the agenda then he needs to look at the anti-siphoning list that reserves much premium sport for free TV. Murdoch would like more premium sport on pay TV, particularly given the competition about to hit Australian shores with the arrival of streaming services like Netflix.
Turnbull:
We are urged to do this (do over the anti-siphoning list) by the pay TV industry. I absolutely respect and understand their commercial position but it’s important to understand that what they are seeking would not be popular, it would be most unpopular and in any event, it would need to be approved by the Senate.
Why does anyone imagine that this Senate would be likely to approve changes that would be clearly as unpopular as that.
Q: You know these changes need to occur.
Turnbull:
Not to anti-siphoning.
Sorry Rupert. Hard times for honest moguls.
Time to get loud and proud, the PL comments thread is now open for your business. I’m also available for banter, typo corrections, clarifications, or simple home renovations advice on the Twits. I’m @murpharoo and he’s @mpbowers
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