SACRAMENTO, Calif. — Californians will be asked to comply with strict new limits on community outings, travel and in-person shopping under a new statewide order issued Thursday by Gov. Gavin Newsom, a set of far-reaching restrictions tied to regional strains on critical care services as COVID-19 cases continue to rise.
The rules are designed to last for at least 21 days once local critical care facilities approach capacity. But the expectations set by state officials suggest that what Newsom described as a "regional stay-at-home" order will sharply limit activities across California throughout the holiday season and possibly into the new year.
"The bottom line is, if we don't act now, our hospital system will be overwhelmed," Newsom said in a midday news conference. "If we don't act now, we'll continue to see our death rate climb, more lives lost."
Eleven counties in Southern California and 12 counties in the Central Valley could be required to implement the new restrictions as soon as Friday, based on current projections of the rising number of patients who have been admitted to intensive care units.
State officials divided California's counties into five regions for the purpose of determining intensive care unit capacity and potential shutdowns of local services.
Southern California counties that would be affected by the order are Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, Ventura, Imperial, Inyo and Mono.
Affected communities will be required to close personal service businesses, including hair and nail salons, playgrounds, family entertainment centers and campgrounds for overnight stays. Restaurants will be required to return to take-out service only.
Retail businesses will be limited to 20% of their customer capacity inside at any one time, with requirements for store officials to ensure there's no indoor drinking or eating.
The governor, who remains in quarantine with his family after his children were exposed to people who subsequently tested positive for COVID-19, said the new order is "fundamentally predicated on the need to stop gathering with people outside of your household (and) to do what you can to keep most of your activities outside."
Although current state projections show only Southern California and Central Valley counties will have to immediately put in place the new rules, data released by the Newsom administration earlier this week show almost all of the state could soon reach the new threshold — with 85% or more of ICU beds filled.
"We recognize the gravity and the importance of the moment and what is being asked of all Californians," said Dr. Mark Ghaly, secretary of the California Health and Human Services Agency.
State officials plan for the new shutdown rules to be in place for at least the next three weeks. After that, any reopening of closed services and activities will be based on four-week projections of a region's ICU capacity — suggesting the broad new restrictions could easily last through the end of the year in some communities.
Data compiled by the Los Angeles Times show the state has averaged nearly 15,000 cases a day over the last week, triple the rate in the last month. COVID-19 hospitalizations have also tripled over the same period. And an average of 67 Californians were dying daily from COVID-19 over the last week, a 60% jump from mid-November.
Unlike the shutdown Newsom issued in the spring, most outdoor activities, including beach access and hiking, are not affected. But similar to other state government rules, it allows local leaders to impose public health rules that are more strict.
"This is not a permanent state," Newsom said.
Closing stores and shopping malls in the run-up to the holiday season could strike a powerful blow to the state's hobbled economy. In recent days, Newsom has announced a package of loan and grant efforts for small businesses as well as the expansion of a program that allows businesses to delay payment of sales tax collections and use the money as a short-term bridge loan.
In most of the state, nonessential retail stores are capped at 25% capacity. Some counties, however, already meet this stricter threshold: L.A. County on Monday lowered its cap on capacity at nonessential retail stores to 20%, and Santa Clara County has limited its cap on nonessential retail to 10% of capacity.
The new restrictions appear to remove the distinction between essential and nonessential retail — a 20% cap on capacity at all stores is likely to significantly reduce capacity at essential retailers, including supermarkets and drug stores. In most of the state, essential stores had been capped at 50% of capacity; in L.A. County, they were capped at 35%; and in Santa Clara County, 25%.
Allan Zaremberg, president of the California Chamber of Commerce, said the loss of revenue at the busiest time of the year could hobble many businesses, including California-based retailers that do not have the same online sales presence as national and international companies.
He questioned whether shutting down businesses would have the desired effect if families and friends continue to gather in their homes over the holidays, similar to Thanksgiving.
"The worst thing would be to shut somebody down and it not have any impact on hospital capacity," Zaremberg said. "For each business that will suffer a revenue loss and fewer employees, it can be catastrophic for them."
In many ways, the scope of the shutdowns triggered by the dwindling number of ICU beds is broader than many prior efforts.
Cardrooms will be required to shut down, and hotels won't be allowed to accept tourists.
Entertainment production and professional sports continue to be allowed without a live audience. Santa Clara County, however, on Monday enacted a ban on contact sports, forcing the San Francisco 49ers to temporarily relocate to Arizona for its December games.
Some epidemiologists said state officials had no choice but to impose a stricter shutdown to avoid one of the worst public health catastrophes in the state's modern history, with California's death toll of nearly 20,000 plausibly doubling by the end of winter.
The initial coronavirus wave "has now become a viral tsunami," said Dr. Robert Kim-Farley, a medical epidemiologist and infectious disease expert at the UCLA Fielding School of Public Health. "The virus is now everywhere, and so, therefore, the restriction of activities needs to also be applied everywhere to be able to return to where we were — on a decreasing trend."
Still, the order is likely to exacerbate the frustration of many Californians, especially in trying to better understand how state officials calculate the relative risk of activities such as children using playgrounds and physical distancing in hair salons. While some state lawmakers lashed out at Newsom's actions as arbitrary, others called for oversight hearings once the Legislature reconvenes next week.
The governor defended Thursday his administration's actions as rooted in science and public health best practices.
"We want to mitigate mixing, period, full stop," he said. "We want to diminish the amount of mixing. And we really need to send that message broadly. And we need to create less opportunities for the kind of contact and extended period, extended time of contact, that occurs in many of these establishments."
.png?w=600)
