Now that the celebrations are done with the BJP’s convincing defeat and the Aam Aadmi Party’s victory, it’s time to see how these results will impact the next two eagerly awaited Assembly polls in Bihar and West Bengal.
Leaders across the political parties agree that the Delhi results has won the perception battle for the Opposition. It has again reiterated that the BJP is not invincible coming close on the heels of Maharashtra, Haryana and Jharkhand results. Second, it provides empirical evidence that the BJP narrative on the Citizenship (Amendment) Act and the NRC is not drawing the dividends they were expecting.
There are many obvious parallels between Delhi and West Bengal that goes to the polls in April 2021. For one, in both the States the BJP is in the Opposition. Both the Kejriwal and the Mamata Banerjee governments run strong social welfare programmes and distribute many services, which pejoratively are called freebies. Third, both Chief Ministers are careful not to be seen in direct clash with Hindutva politics.
Mr. Kejriwal in an interview to The Hindu before the elections had said he believes in Kaam ki Rajniti. Soon after the Delhi results, the Trinamool Congress leaders spoke a similar language. In an interview to NDTV, Derek O’Brien listed out his government’s development projects. “Today is not a day of big talk, we are just quietly doing our work,” he said making it clear that the TMC will follow the template set by the AAP.
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A senior Left leader said one major difference between Delhi and West Bengal is that Ms. Banerjee, unlike his Delhi counterpart, faces severe anti-incumbency. The Congress leader from West Bengal, however, feels that anti-incumbency alone would not be enough to challenge her. “It didn’t suffice in 2016 so we are sure whether it will suffice now. The question in Bengal is who do you hate the most, Modi or Mamata,” he said.
The Left is keen that the Delhi model of bipolar contest between the AAP and BJP should not be replicated in West Bengal since it feels that the BJP will profit in such a case. “In 2016, when the Left and the Congress fought together, the BJP vote share was restricted to 10.6%. The surge that we saw in 2019 for the BJP was essentially because of the absence of a third alternative,” a senior Left leader said. The BJP got 41% votes in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls and 18 seats.
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The Delhi results have effectively demonetised the Congress as an alternative to the BJP. Both the Left and the Congress are worried about the sentiment carrying over to West Bengal.
Bihar is an altogether different story. There are no obvious parallels that can be drawn between the Delhi results and Bihar with the BJP being a junior partner in the government. Bihar will go to the polls in October. The Delhi results can only be a morale booster at the best. What many are hoping is that the Delhi results should provide confidence to Janata Dal (U) president and Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar to cut the cord with the BJP. He has often shown signs of rebelling against his junior partner since the BJP has been flexing its muscles and trying to carve out a bigger role for itself in the State.
